Parabolic SAR - that's all!

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625

OK, to tell the truth, you know it anyway, i didnt read the whole thread, but something like the first 10 pages or so, and the last 5?

i know that when using multiple timeframes you look @ the longer one to determine the main trend, and switch to the smaller timeframe and only trade in the direction of the main trend. i just said it in the reversed way :frowning:

but anyway, i was now reading the missing stuff (and skipped a few stuffs) on this thread and tried to find out what you were talking about with that other system with the bunch indicators, and i found the(your) new system you were talking about, the one with RSI, MACD, Stochs, ADX, Aligator and what else? i think thats it :smiley:

its here
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/4976-parabolic-sar-thats-all-22.html#post22124

maybe save it for future reference or put it into your first post if possible :stuck_out_tongue:

i am going to setup the stuffs and use it on H1, lets see how it turns out…

626

Oh hello Akram - nice of you to join us again!!! (Only kidding - I know where you were and what you were doing)!!!

I have one question for you though: why are you so sure that Canada is going to lower their interest rates next month??? I’m just curious as to what you base that statement on with such conviction (I’m not saying you’re wrong - I just don’t know myself).

As far as Oil is concerned - well - I’m short on it right now - and ALL of our ‘rules’ have been satisfied - so I reckon I’m ‘good to go’ on this one.

dr_zeus:

Wow - now that was a ‘bang’ of a message!!!

OK - well - as far as the ‘commdolls’ are concerned - there is actually ‘quite’ a high correlation between Gold and AUD (something like 60% I think) and the same applies to the ZAR, NZD (not sure of the percentages though) and - I’m sure I don’t have to tell you about the Oil and CAD ‘connection’. I just thought about checking the commodities and then looking at the ‘associated’ currency because I sat with GBP/CAD last month and it eventually cost me quite a bit of USD when I finally got stopped out (or maybe I just closed it - I forget which). It was then that I took another very serious look at the ‘commdolls’ again (somebody had actually warned me about this very early on in the thread) and I reckon it just gives you that ‘added edge’ when looking at these currencies. I mean - at that time - I had ‘valid’ signals on all the ‘commdoll’ pairs and everything - but the price of Gold and Oil ‘outweighed’ or ‘overshadowed’ the ‘valid’ Parabolic SAR signals that I had (although at the time I was not using MACD, RSI, Stochastics, or ADX at the time i.e. our ‘new rules’ - might be interesting to go and have a look back on those trades and see what these indicators were ‘giving’ me at the time).

You make mention of ‘balancing’ your portfolio and ‘weighting’ the different pairs - I like that - I’ve brought it up before - but I’ve never quite figured out how to do it - so - feel free to post a ‘method’. I personally believe that this IS VERY NECESSARY - especially if you’re going to go ‘hell for leather’ and use my ‘shotgun’ approach i.e. take a position on each and every single currency that you can lay your hands on WHEN our ‘new rules’ are ALL satisfied of course.

You also make mention about the close correlation between certain pairs. This has been a sort of ‘mind f**k’ for me - but I’ve come to the conclusion that with Parabolic SAR it does not (should not?) matter i.e. Parabolic SAR ‘operates’ ’ in its own time and space’ for want of a better ‘phrase’. In other words - in my opinion - as long as you are following the ‘system’ and taking ‘valid’ entries - it should not matter. At least - that’s what I figure. What you are saying would be quite correct I believe IF you were taking all of those positions at the same time and even then the correlation would have to be 100% in order for the trades to ‘totally’ cancel each other out. This is my opinion - feel free to disagree and post your reasoning why.

Lastly - as far as using ALL of those indicators is concerned - again - in my opinion - and as far as I know at this time - ALL of those indicators TOGETHER form part of our ‘system’ - trading WITHOUT any one of those indicators and just ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR is either going to make you less profits or lose you money in the long run. I have proved this to myself several ‘majestic’ times in the past couple of weeks. It just seems to make the difference between opening a position that almost immediately turns into a profit and then turns into a loss just as quickly a couple of days later. True - using ALL of those indicators definitely limits the number of trades that you’ll do - or rather the frequency of your trades - but the idea is to ensure that the trades that you DO do are ALWAYS profitable (well - a VERY high percentage of the time anyway). Using ALL of those indicators is really just to give you the edge. Like somebody else suggested on the thread - the purpose of using ALL of those indicators is to keep you out of bad trades - not to indicate a good trades - if that makes sense. Having said all of this I’m not sure just how many people are actually using ALL of these indicators i.e. I think the vast majority are, like you, relying only on MACD as a Parabolic SAR ‘backup’. I have found, however, that this is not enough (not for me anyway) i.e. there are many times when there has been a Parabolic SAR entry signal AND MACD has crossed and the trade has either JUST broken even or turned ‘sour’ and then - when you look at RSI and Stochs - you find that they were right at their limits ‘on the opposite side of the trade’ as it were - and there’s your reason why the trade went ‘sour’ right there and then. Put it this way - from REALLY studying the charts daily ALL DAY I see this scenario playing out more and more frequently than the odd trade that you ‘missed’ because things ‘were not quite right’ according to all of those indicators.

Regards,

Dale.

627

depaterso,

Do you have any up to date results for this system?

628

Sorry Akram and CharlesLioe - we were obviously ‘overtyping’ each other.

Akram: no - nobody has got back to me yet about the different ‘calculations’ BUT I’m still of the opinion that it really does not make THAT much difference in the long run anyway (although I am very dissapointed that nobody gave us their input - I really thought they would). Take a look back a couple of posts and you’ll see why I say this (basically we are ALL getting signals at different times but if you look at each of the trading platforms in isolation AND you are using all of the other indicators then you’re pretty much ‘landing up on the same page’ as everyone else at the end of the day). Yes - I’d like everybody to have the EXACT SAME CORRECT Parabolic SAR values but I HAVE also noticed in the last couple of days that even a very small price difference between brokers can make a difference to the calculation and representation of Parabolic SAR PARTICULARLY if the broker has regular ‘spikes’ (even small ones now and then) i.e. Parabolic SAR is calculated CORRECTLY using either the ‘highest highs’ or ‘lowest lows’ and if those prices differ from broker to broker then you will definitely have differences.

CharlesLioe: I’m glad you feel that way - let’s hope you’re right (about the ‘Holy Grail’ that is)!!! Like I said earlier - I’m going to put this all together in a nice neat Adobe .pdf document just as soon as I trade myself out of the ‘sh1t’ over on the Indices and Gold and Oil (YES I’m overtrading AGAIN but the Indices are ‘slightly’ different in that I don’t get the ‘cold shivers’ and can afford to wait things out). On the other hand - there are one or two things that have just been brought up by dr_zeus which I think carry much weight and should be added to our ‘system’ as well - so I’m going to wait a little while and see where these one or two things go before ‘completing’ ‘Version 1.0’ of our ‘system’.

Regards,

Dale.

629

Dale,

I based my belives for the CAD that it is going to be droped down is that i want to buy a house in canada and lots of agent are telling me don’t buy now wait for another month coz the intrest rate will drop down.other reason is that the oil is getting down.last reason is that i feel so (not enough?!!!)

no seriously when any pair goes UP to the point that it never went up like that before from long long time which is the case with the CAD what will happen it should get some retracement.

beside the oil is really going down which means by your method that CAD is going to be down as well any ways it is just a thoughts that i am having and it might be wrong but the oil gives me the feelings that what i am saying is right.and your last post even convinced me more!!!

Regards,

Akram

630

Hello clayboy,

Yes - my results so far this month so far: ZERO!!! No profit!!! No loss!!!

If you have a look back on the thread you’ll find the reason for that i.e. (I’m doing it again) you CANNOT open positions with this ‘system’ and then just take profits when you ‘feel you’ve made enough’ or you can’t live with the idea that 'if I don’t take profits now I might lose some profit that are already ‘on the table’ because the moment you do this you’re out of the market and if you’re trading the daily (or longer) timeframe you can wait a very long time to ‘get back in’ and that’s what has happened to me in the past month or so.

As far as previous results are concerned - well - need I say more!!!

Regards,

Dale.

631

[QUOTE=dpaterso;23577]Sorry Akram and CharlesLioe - we were obviously ‘overtyping’ each other.

Akram: no - nobody has got back to me yet about the different ‘calculations’ BUT I’m still of the opinion that it really does not make THAT much difference in the long run anyway (although I am very dissapointed that nobody gave us their input - I really thought they would). Take a look back a couple of posts and you’ll see why I say this (basically we are ALL getting signals at different times but if you look at each of the trading platforms in isolation AND you are using all of the other indicators then you’re pretty much ‘landing up on the same page’ as everyone else at the end of the day). Yes - I’d like everybody to have the EXACT SAME CORRECT Parabolic SAR values but I HAVE also noticed in the last couple of days that even a very small price difference between brokers can make a difference to the calculation and representation of Parabolic SAR PARTICULARLY if the broker has regular ‘spikes’ (even small ones now and then) i.e. Parabolic SAR is calculated CORRECTLY using either the ‘highest highs’ or ‘lowest lows’ and if those prices differ from broker to broker then you will definitely have differences.

I tottaly agree with u Dale coz i do have vailed entries when i use the PASAR with some of the pairs and i find u don’t have this vailed entries or the vise versa but on the long run IT DOESN’T MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE!!!
coz if the market is trending when i do have this vailed entry and u don’t i can gain lots of pips out of it and also the same happen with u.

it is better that we can find some thing that makes us on the same level when we trade like when we have a vailed entries we all have it rather than u only get it and not able to share the same dream and thoughts with u

Regards,

Akram

632

Dale,

i remmeber before i disappered this week that u were lossing 9k so if u r saying that u r now no loss and no gain that means postive i am so happy for u to know that u r not lossing but will be sad if u used other system to cover your loss coz i believe in our system and i think that it could win most of the time!!

As i said before we are like a boxers who is scorring lots of punches and getting some punches as well but the more we punch the more we win and gain more points!! i hope this is the case with u Dale.

Akram

633

Dale,

when did u open the oil postion on sell?? when was the entry valied?

Akram

634

Hello again,

I’m not sure when I was $9K down (to be honest I don’t remember it and I did look back on the thread) but suffice to say I broke even today and no I am not using anything else on forex at the moment. Put it this way - if I lost $9K this month - YOU’D ALL KNOW ABOUT IT!!! THAT’S FOR SURE!!!

I’m short on Oil at ‘my other broker’ - got valid entry signals from ALL our indicators yesterday already (although it’s not behaving too well at the moment - keeps ‘bobbing up and down’ like it can’t make up it’s mind).

Regards,

Dale.

635

wow…sorry to hear, what do you think about gold btw? i think except macd everything looks fine? there is a psar dot for short, rsi was above 80, stochs is above 80, adx is at 44, just macd is not crossing yet.
i don’t have aligator for my oanda chart :frowning:

636

As far as i remmebered u said 2 weeks back that u have 9k loss and u will close all the postions and will follow the system so i think u did so.and u now r breaking even which is good.

Good luck Dale and evey one who is following this system

Akram

637

Hello again - no sleep tonight for me!!!

Akram - it may have been $900 but not $9K!!! Like I said - if I had lost THAT much this month - you’d know about it for sure!!!

CharlesLioe - no matter what the other indicators are saying I would DEFINITELY wait for MACD to cross and if / when it does - you know you’re in a good trade. As I said before - ‘second guessing’ any ONE of these indicators could land you in the ‘sh1t’ and even more so on Gold. The one thing that I am worried about with Gold at the moment is that is appears to be consolidating and it’s going to break out BUT the question is in which direction??? MOST people feel that it’s going to go up but my ‘gut feel’ (which to be honest never really amounts to much) tells me it’s going to correct before going up again (if it does in fact go up again this year).

Anyway - it’s nearly time for me to go through my ‘wishlist’. If I find anything really ‘interesting’ I post the details.

Regards,

Dale.

638

You won’t believe me when I tell you this BUT there is not a single valid entry ANYWHERE!!!

Sometimes - when I’m really tired - I go through the list early and exclude those pairs where there is absolutely no chance that either a valid entry signal or a valid reversal signal is going to come at 00h00 - that cuts my ‘after 0h00’ time down a bit - and I can tell you that there is absolutely no point in even waiting for 00h00!!! Sure - there are a few ‘potential’ Parabolic SAR entry / reversal signals coming tonight but MACD is FAR off ‘crossing’!!!

Geez - I sure hope that from next week things turn!!!

By the way - I just heard that there is another potential storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico - so - Oil is going up (slightly) right now (I also heard something about the stockpiles but I was not sure what they - Bloomberg - were saying - I was sort of ‘half listening’).

Dale.

639

Howdy All!

Greetings from Arizona! I think I’ve been reading this whole thing for over 5 hours straight now… think I left off on page 26. Anyway, I’m finding this fascinating on multiple levels. Not only does this seem like a great system, but it is constantly evolving around a central theme. The best part about it, is that folks from around the world are taking part in creating a great system. United under a common goal… and I find that great. Though we are all striving for the same ultimate goal of making more money for ourselves and to better ours and our families lives, maybe even that money is/will be put to use to strive for a better world… I know, kinda cheesy! :rolleyes:

Anyway, I am new to FOREX trading and have been researching for the past week and a half and finding every bit of it fascinating, starting with the School on this site. All the while, I’ve been using demo accounts (mostly on MT4) and have tried, I think, 5 trading systems so far. Each one has its positives and negatives. As I go, I’ve been finding out about my trading style and this system really fits my trading style. Also, my wife has been bugging me to spend time with her again! :rolleyes: I think this system will allow me to do that!

I just wanted to say good work to everyone and especially you Dale. I enjoy reading your thoughts and comments and actually watching/reading your changes over the progress of this thing. Keep up the good work… maybe some day I can contribute something.

Well, actually I think I have a contribution. I know Dale had mentioned coming up with an easy project name for this thing. While setting up charts and templates for this, I saved them under a simple name. I like to call this system PSARdom… the P is silent. :stuck_out_tongue: Take it or leave it if you will.

For now, good luck and happy trading.

Peace,
Rob

EDIT: p.s. ooooo! Had another name idea… PSARism! Oh Yea! Eh? Eh? :cool:

640

Dale:

Thanks for your kind observations. The link now points to this forum.

This thread is very very long and I’ve read most of it.

[B]Not just the dot.[/B]
If you looked at my blog carefully you would have seen that I’ve been fooling around pivot points, EMAs, Stochs among others so although I bought the USD/CHF based on SAR I would be taking a glance at Stochs and price action.

Having read more and more of your thread, like yourself I’ve come to see that I was just fortunate to have made a lucky trade. But I was due one. I need to rescue my account and my financial life.

I will make appropriate edit to my blog to alert my readers of yur concerns.

Keep up the good work. Although I must confess you sometimes display an emotional intensity that reminds me of myself at my best and worst.

Life needs passion, anyway.

Forexology

641

nuttin to do with parsar but have a look at this chart. It is really getting close.

gy1.jpg700×378 38.7 KB

642

True to my word Dale, I’ve edited the following warning into my blog post at forexology

(Edit on Wednesday September 26, 2007) Warning: The guys over by babypips who converted me to this system are continuously refining it with indicators in an effort to reduce the weaknesses. Be advised that there is the need to filter SAR with other indicators.

643

I’ve rediscovered the use of EMA for trends. But for the approximate alligator do I use EMA or SMA. Just to help me visualise something on Oanda which does not have alligator.

I’ll eventually download a free MT4 which should have it.

Edit: Yawn!!! I’ve been reading this thread for over four hours now. I must sle…eeeeeep.

Great potential but in need of honest, serious back testing by the mathematically minded.

Dale you may want to invite some of the geniuses out there in forexsphere to come in and give you some objective analysis if only by way of external audit.
MACD, RSI, and Stochastics might do the trick. I’m too new to give expert opinion. Simply means you’ll have to rename the post.

Most things in life that look this easy at the beginning usually have some very complex inner workings so don’t be afraid of ending with a completely different approach.

Dont wanna argue semantics with you Dale, but by definition the PSAR is a short term swing trading system when done on the daily charts. Swing trading as opposed to day trading is spread over days, weeks, months, even years. I say short term because PSAR daily signals usually run for days before they reverse, and not months.

Why is it in fora like these the participants spend half the ink explaining themselves?

Sleep beckons.

Great work guys.

I’m rambling now just like Dale. But Oanda’s web based charts do not permit overlay of alligators or crocodiles or cows. But do tell me if you are using EMA or SMA so that I can constuct an approximate alligator.

In Jamaica we have crocodiles. I’ll try to remember the difference.

Oh and plenty of rum, but alas I don’t drink. Somebody on the island has to keep a clear head.

Okay Guys here is a gem. We are looking for exit points in our trades, right? Well since Dale is so good as to share his blood sweat and tears with us I’m going to give you a little hint on what a good friend of mine has found. When looking for take profit points just go to the 4hour pivot points.
I cant say more now because I’m actually testing my friend’s theory. She trades solely on the four hour pivot. Again my blog forexology describes my effort to adapt her system.

Forexology

644

Good morning everyone,

‘I gotta tell ya’ - I’m starting to feel like a teenager in the mornings i.e. can’t wait to ‘get to the thread’ to read posts from you good people (it’s not surprising though - I get ‘accused’ of ‘being 42 going on 18’ - mainly because of my love of - and taste - in music - not even my children are ‘into’ ‘my bands’)!!!

Anyway - before I start - I was thinking about this last night (this morning?) in the ‘wee’ hours - and I just thought that this morning I’d like to really say thanks to everyone who takes the time and goes to the trouble of posting on this thread to share THEIR ideas and experiences and knowledge. I’ll tell you that this thread helps me more with trading (and possibly even as a person) than any book or anything like that. For example: I am not one of those people that can keep a ‘trading record’ as one is advised to do so that you can analyse your good and bad trades (so as to not repeat mistakes etc. etc.) - I’ve tried this - and I can never keep it up - so there is little point. This thread serves as a far superior ‘trading record’ for me AND has the added benefit that it ‘disciplines’ me i.e. helps me ‘stick to the system’ because I know you good people are reading and watching and I don’t want to look like an ‘ars*hole’ at the end of the day!!!

Anyway - thanks everyone!!!

Hey robstyle1980, thanks for posting (I have family in Arizona - I think)!!!

First let me say that their is nothing ‘cheesy’ about ANYTHING you said - especially about family. I can tell you that this business can and DOES take it’s toll on ‘family’ (or maybe I’m approaching it the wrong way - I don’t know). Hopefully this ‘system’ when complete will enable us all (only me?) to improve a whole lot of things around us.

Thanks for the ‘naming’ suggestions - not bad - although I don’t think it’s my call - everybody else - feel free to ‘jump in’ on ‘naming’ our ‘system’!!!

Like I DID say before - this ‘system’ was SUPPOSED to be ‘low maintenance’ or ‘no maintenance’ i.e. ‘do your thing every day for an hour and then leave it alone’ but it has not worked out that way (well - not for the moment anyway) BUT we will get there - soon!!!

Hello forexology, and thanks.

Sorry - I really hope you don’t think I was ‘dumping’ on you yesterday (well I suppose I was but it was NOT my intention). It’s just that when I started out I ‘prowled’ around the Internet to find information and ‘input’ and the only place where I got ANY real and worthwhile ‘input’ was here on babypips and - as they don’t want any money - I just figured that they at least deserve to get some links to the site (I’m assuming that advertising and the like pays for the maintenance of the site). Also - there are a lot of sites that treat ‘new traders’ with ‘disdain’ (what those ‘monkeys’ seem to forget is that even THEY started out somewhere) - but - not so on babypips i.e. there are really a lot of very good people over here that don’t mind sharing their knowledge (I know of one or two who REALLY don’t have to ‘bother’ with the like of us BUT THEY DO ANYWAY)!!!

Also - I was really worried that ‘new traders’ would only get ‘half the picture’ and then end up losing money and being ‘put off’ this business. Like I have said before - I’m just very lucky that I had the financial resources to lose what I lost in the beginning and still be here to ‘tell the tale’ - most people are not that fortuanate - so - if this thread can ‘save’ them from losing money and actually facilitate their ‘making’ money from the ‘get go’ - then we’ve accomplished something good. It would also go a long way to changing ‘other’ peoples attitudes toward, and perceptions of, this business i.e. for the most part - everyone that I meet and subsequently tell what I do for a living view me as nothing short of a gambler - and I resent that ‘BIG TIME’!

On a personal level - yes - this business DOES bring out the ABSOLUTE best and the worst in me - but - I AM an ‘extreme’ person anyway. Also - this business has humbled me to the point where I am able to accept the fact that there CAN be another way of doing things - not just my way - and there are certain things that you just cannot control and that you have to either ‘fit in or f**k off’ - that’s ‘the market’!!! And yes - this business can put you on the ‘highest of highs’ and take you down to the ‘lowest of lows’ BUT I think once you are able to ‘rise above’ those emotions then you’ve ‘hit the jackpot’ and you’re here to stay (I’m DEFINITELY not there yet although of late a certain ‘calm’ has come over me i.e. I’m (almost) able to take a loss without thinking that the ‘end of the world has come’)!

Anyway - thank for giving babypips a link and making other traders aware of the fact the there REALLY is no easy way of making money and that just ‘following the dots’ is really not the way to go - not if you are here for ‘the long haul’ and want to be one of those ‘elite’ 5% of traders who ACTUALLY make it!

As far as the ‘approximate alligator’ (that’s a good description) I just used SMA’s but only because Bill Williams does not actually say whether they should be SMA’s or EMA’s and I just assumed that IF they were supposed to be EMA’s he would have said so. MT4 will definitely have the ‘proper’ Alligator - and - if you look at the indicators parameters - you see the ‘shift’ that I was talking about. The ‘proper’ Alligator has the ‘ability’ to ‘predict’ the most likely direction of the market (pair) by ‘offsetting’ the MA’s into the future and is actually showing you what will (should) happen ‘if no new information comes into the market’ - as per Bill Williams). This I have not been able to ‘program’ or ‘replicate’ with our ‘Approximate Alligator’ as yet but - like I said before - Parabolic SAR is giving us a pretty good idea of ‘what the future holds’ so we are just using our ‘Approximate Alligator’ to indicate the presence or absence of a trend.

Hey droesparky, (stop showing off - it’s stuff like this that 'seperates the men from the boys)!!! What are you saying??? GBP/JPY is ‘going down’? Sorry - but every interpretation that I do using trend lines and the like is ALWAYS wrong.

Regards,

Dale.