Parabolic SAR - that's all!

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 4:29am

‘SH*T’ - I nearly forgot to look!!!

WELL - EUR/RON my good and trusted and learned friends - is dropping VERY nicely this moring. THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!!!

Of course - as ‘luck’ would have it - I’m STILL ‘screwed’ - thanks to Gold, Silver, Oil, and just to finish things off nicely - some ‘commdolls’!!!

Dale.

capt.findus · October 5, 2007, 4:35am

dear diary,

i kept eur/usd overnight with -34pips and now is +20
i closed gbp/usd with -32

this morning i jumped on usd/chf long

I hope in usd revenge…

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 4:38am

‘dear diary’???

You’re kidding!!!

Dale.

Hypechic · October 5, 2007, 5:17am

Good Morning Folks.

USD/DKK has improved to about -138 pips. EUR/USD to -16 pips.
GBP/CHF is at +79 pips and EUR/GBP is at +27 pips. Let’s see how things go later in the day.

Still watching USD/CAD & AUD/USD.

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 5:20am

Is THIS the time to start work!!!

Hypechic · October 5, 2007, 5:32am

ROTFL. No, this is the time to do my personal business on the company computer during company hours. I sure hope none of my bosses are on here or I’m definitely getting fired.

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 5:51am

Don’t worry - soon - we’ll ALL be working at Morgan Stanley!!!

Hey - check out our new ‘sideline’ system (a few posts behind this one) and tell me what you think.

By the way - if you’ve already downloaded the software - you need to download it again - it’s been updated!!!

Regards,

Dale.

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 6:15am

Here, get educated:

Dow Theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(That article that ‘Tess’ posted has got me going now).

Isn’t it strange that all of the ‘old timers’ theories have proved themselves over time??? J. Welles Wilder Jnr.???

Edit:

I found this interesting too:

Arbitrage - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Regards,

Dale.

Hypechic · October 5, 2007, 6:42am

I’ve taken a look at the bop calculator and it seems like a very fine idea. Unfortunately, I don’t have the time to try that system out now…U understand why but, I’ll definitely try it out sometime. There’s never enough learning in this business is there?

capt.findus · October 5, 2007, 7:01am

everybody is keeping the usd positions?

my pips are now really near to +0

pip_huntter · October 5, 2007, 7:26am

dpaterso:

Now DO NOT say that I don’t give you guys (and ‘dolls’) anything!!!

I have attached a WinZip file to this post. In the WinZip archive is a small little application called ‘bopcalc.exe’ that I just wrote to make my life a little easier (I can’t take credit for the ‘system’ itself but I DID write the application).

Download it and extract it to any folder you want - put it on your desktop - and run it.

Basically - the idea is this:

You enter YESTERDAYS - PAY ATTENTION - YESTERDAYS Open, High, Low, and Close prices and the application will calculate the High Break Out Point and the Low Break Out Point for you FOR TODAY - PAY ATTENTION - FOR TODAY!!!

THEN - all you do is this:

EITHER:

Place a Buy Stop Order at the price given by ‘High Break Out Point’ and a Sell Stop Order at the price given by ‘Low Beak Out Point’

OR (if you’re at Delta you can do this)

Set up eMail or SMS alerts to alert you when the price hits the ‘High Break Out Point’ and when the price hits the ‘Low Break Out Point’ (by the way the eMail and SMS alerts DO NOT work on demo accounts so don’t contact me if you have demo account at Delta and ‘whine’ that you did not get an eMail or SMS alert). Once you get an alert you immediately place a Market Order (as opposed to a Stop Order) as detailed above.

How it works:

The basic ‘theory’ is that if the price has reached either of these two points at any time during the day (and DO NOT GO USING THIS ON SMALLER TIMEFRAMES BECAUSE YOU WILL GET ‘F****D’) then the instrument or pair has ‘broken out’ into a trend and we all know that ‘the trend is your friend’ right!!!

Anyway - if your Buy Stop Order is hit and executed - you IMMEDIATELY cancel your Sell Stop Order and place your Stop Loss at the ‘Lowest Low’ of the preceding two candlesticks or bars and if your Sell Stop Order is hit and executed - you IMMEDIATELY cancel your Buy Stop Order and place your Stop Loss at the ‘Highest High’ of the preceding two candlesticks or bars. These stops you update EVERY SINGLE DAY IN THE SAME WAY until stopped out which is almost always a profit!!!

If - at the end of the day - neither of your orders have been executed - you continue repeating the process every day - one day - the price will get hit - be patient. Actually - at Delta - you can place orders that are valid for a day (as opposed to a ‘GTC’ or ‘Good Till Cancel’ order) - and I’m sure that you can do this with a few other (good) brokers as well. Oh - and you’d be well advised to use this system with a brokers that does not ‘slip’ each and every single stop order you place!!! I know of a good one that NEVER ‘slips’ stop orders!!! Guess who???

NOW - this ‘system’ does NOT do many trades AT ALL - BUT - the trades that it gets you into are almost always profitable as already stated above.

Also - it is NOT the type of ‘system’ that you can ‘forget about’ i.e. you have to be able to at least access your trading platform the moment these orders get hit so that you can set your stop losses and cancel the opposing order (I suppose you could use OCO orders but I never have) otherwise you could quite easily land up in a situation where your Buy Stop Order is executed, the price retracts and your Sell Stop Order is executed, and the price then retraces again and you’re now TOTALLY at a loss without any stops in place!!!

This ‘system’ IS time consuming as it has to be maintained DAILY the moment your daily chart ‘ticks’ over at whatever time and at whichever broker you use.

Also - do not use this ‘system’ on a pair that is ALREADY trending or that has good directional movement - and a good way to ‘check’ for this is to have a look at your ADX and / or ADXR values (remember those??? We’re SUPPOSED to be using them you know!!!) - they should BOTH be below 20 (but you could ‘stretch it’ up to 25 is you’re getting desperate for a trade.

Do not ask me for the formula - copyright and all that you know - suffice to say that I did not come up with it (but I’ll give you three guesses as to who did)!!!

Now that I have finished this little ‘Break Out Point Calculator’ I’m going to place these orders on all 44 pairs every day (night) and see what happens (I tried to do this manually with a calculator or spreadsheet every day but it would pretty much result in me NEVER sleeping beacuse of the time taken to do the calculations)!!!

Have fun - and if Parabolic SAR lets you down today - this will get you your capital back - albeit after some time!!!

This is a price based ‘system’ - kind of like ‘where the rubber meets the road’ - that’s why when it give you a trade - it’s normally a very good trade.

Again - like everything else - it requires patience - probably EVEN MORE than our Parabolic SAR ‘system’.

Regards,

Dale.

Oh - by the way - did I mention that I accept no responsibility for any losses incurred by you should you decide to use this ‘system’ (sorry - had to state this)!!!

Dale,

thanks for posting this new system.I just want to know somthing about taking profit and how to close my order u r saying if i go for buy then i have to check for the previous 2 candlesticks so i have to go back 2 days to check for the lowiest low or highest high??

Akram

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 7:45am

Yup - you’ve got it.

Look - with that ‘system’ I suppose you could choose your own stop loss method - setting your stop loss to the lowest low or highest high of the two preceding candles (days) is what ‘the man’ suggests and I would imagine that this IS in fact based on some sort of ‘insight’ as it were.

Put it this way - open your EUR/USD chart for example - and then go back to places where you can clearly see that the pair had become range bound or was consolidating. Then - using the calculator - calculate your HBOP and LBOP for the day that the pair ‘broke out’ i.e. you would input the values for the day BEFORE it started trending and follow the trades through from there - and you’ll get a VERY clear picture as to why this works so well and if you’re comfortable to use ‘his’ stop loss recommendation (sometimes the stops can be quite far away from the price). I suppose you could also use a trailing stop once you’re in a profit OR a fixed stop e.g. 60 PIP’s or something like that OR if you’re REALLY lucky the ‘break out’ occurs a couple of days before you get a Parabolic SAR entry or reversal signal so then you can just use Parabolic SAR for stops like we are doing here already.

Regards,

Dale.

pip_huntter · October 5, 2007, 7:57am

Dale,

Tell us more about this system i mean did u make some pips out of it how many trades u had with this system?

well i am trying to calim u down coz i am sure u r like me looking to charts waiting for the news and i hope not singing the blues!!! lol

Akram

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 8:20am

Hello,

Yes - I do use that ‘system’ - how many trades? - don’t have the ‘foggiest’ idea - not too many though - because - like I said - you DO have to wait a long time for a trade.

But - that’s beside the point. With ANY system - you have to take it and backtest it to see whether or not it’s good for you.

And right now - ‘oh me oh my’ am I singing the blues!!! Funny enough - my BIGGEST loss at the moment is now GBP/CAD because of the Candian unemployment data etc. etc. EUR/RON is coming down nicely at the moment (although when it got to a certain point I closed out 3 of the 4 lots so that IF it decided to go against me again at least that loss would not have grown BUT of course it’ll now take much longer to ‘nurse’ the position to either break even or a profit)!!!

Regards,

Dale.

capt.findus · October 5, 2007, 8:31am

call lacuna coil now!

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 8:40am

Stop bugging me - I’m on the phone to Cristina as I type this!!!

I’ll get back to you now!!!

Regards,

Dale.

Hypechic · October 5, 2007, 8:43am

Is the NFP out yet and is it favorable for USD or not? I’m asking cos all my positions are firmly in the green. Hope it’s not a fluke…

forexology · October 5, 2007, 8:51am

I straddled news properly and order cancelled because of not sufficient funds. The platform does not indicate for limit order if funds sufficient, only for market order. I had gone to do some household urgent chores and did not remember to check until after the main spike. I was done to book pips. That hurts. So now I’m trading the retracement.

So PSAR had predicted it all along.

Glendon

PS Lesson learned: Like driving on the highway, trading requires full attention and focus.

PPS But I’ve got an offline life to live like right now I must take my boy to school among other things.

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 8:52am

Wow - what a conversation!!! She is such a nice lady (Cristina)!!!

Anyway - sorry - they can’t make it here next weekend - they’re on tour!!! Guess it’s going to have to be Rammstein!!!

YES ‘Just Joan’ - of COURSE the NFP data is out - and YES it was great for USD - and yes I’m seeing a lot of green as well!!!

Actually EVERYONE should be seeing a lot of green right now if you’ve been following this thread (unless of course you thought you were being clever and trading the very short timeframes in which case your stops got ‘hunted’)!!!

Akram - happy now???

Everyone else??? Smiling???

Regards,

Dale.

dpaterso · October 5, 2007, 8:57am

OK - well - now you just have to sit and wait for the ‘euphoria’ to subside and the markets to settle - and then all you do is start taking those USD/??? positions and ‘follow the dots’ for the next couple of weeks!!!

Well done everyone (I think)!!!

Hey Glendon, sorry to hear about what happened - but - you make a point - HOW can a broker allow you to place ANY order without letting you know whether or not you’ve got enough margin. That’s nonsense. (I know a good broker though)!!!

Why is this thread so quiet now??? After all the ‘build up’ to this - and now - nothing!!! What!!!

Edit:

And oh - by the way - things are only going to get better - the NYSE is not even open yet (I forgot about that)!!! You should have SEEN the Dow, Nasdaq, and especially the S&P move (futures)!!!

Regards,

Dale.