Parabolic SAR - that's all!

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
122

Hi alan003,

Parabolic SAR is an indicator than normally comes standard with any trading platform (software). I also have not used or looked at Dailyfx but I would imagine that because they are a major contributer to the analyst threads on this website that they would definitely have Parabolic SAR (or SAR) as an available indicator on their own trading platforms charting tools.

In other words - the three brokers that I use - all have Parabolic SAR ‘built in’ as an available indicator on their respective trading platforms.

You have to look at your software.

Regards,

Dale.

123

YES> DailyFX has that under there chart software

124

So what is your Entry points? Do you watch all month/week/day charts at PSAR to change direction or you only stick to a one day chart?
Can you show a screenshot of your traders?

125

Hi,

See attached chart for entry points.

You can use Parabolic SAR on any timeframe - I will only use the Daily and longer - as the shorter timeframes give too many false signals - and after spending much time studying the theory behind this indicator - am of the opinion that this indicator was specifically designed to be used on the daily charts i.e. on a daily basis.

I’ll tell you one thing though: I posted this chart because it was unclear or rather debateable to me whether or not I had actually explained (or needed to explain) the entry points and I was in doubt. With regard to your second question though: there is no way you could have read this entire thread and got a good undertstanding of the indicator and what it is about etc. etc. and still be asking this question. Beware: you need to understand what you are doing - otherwise - you WILL lose money - and lots of it. Do not just ‘skim’ over this thread and see references to the profits that I have made - and think that this is the shortcut to ‘huge’ profits - it’s not.

Regards,

Dale.

gbpcad daily showing entry points.jpg700×540 71.1 KB

126

Hi Dale.
you say you stop and reverse, but you have also said that you would only trade with the main trend. so what if the main trend is long, you go long and then it reverses, but the main trend is still long?

Orjan

127

Hi,

No - I never said that I would only trade with the main trend (that was someone else). I was going to have a look to see whether or not it would be viable to ensure that the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Parabolic SAR was going in the same direction but upon further investigation it would appear that the chances of this happening often enough to provide valid entry points on the Daily charts are not very high. While I’m sure that there is no doubt that if you were able to find that Parabolic SAR on the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts was moving in the same direction your profits would be all but ‘guaranteed’ but I think that you would make very few trades over a very long period of time. I’m prepared to, and have the capital to be able to take the ‘whipsaws’, to trade only the Daily charts, based pureley on signals given by Parabolic SAR regardless of the direction of any other trends on any other timeframe. Put it this way - I have never done it any other way - and it still works for me.

What I did say though is that IF you needed confirmation from a longer timeframe the only way that I could see that you could get this confirmation is to look at ONLY ONE higher timeframe i.e. you could verify the Weekly trend, and then trade only the Daily, you could verify the Daily, and then trade only the four hour, etc. etc. etc. Trying to get confirmation from the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily would, once again, in my opinion, result in very few trades - and - if you’re wrong - you’d have to wait far too long to make up your initial loss and then turn a profit thereafter.

Regards,

Dale.

128

ok, thanks. and sorry for the mixup.

129

Good Morning (Evening)!

I don’t know what’s going on with the markets in general - it seems like everyone has gone to sleep after last weeks action! It was not even worth staying up until midnight tonight to adjust stops and check for new positions or to stop and reverse positions! Even the Dow has been in a tight range this week so far! It’s killing me - especially after last weeks euphoria! Is there a big announcement or something coming for somewhere that I don’t know about?

Anyway - plodding along:

[B]Wednesday, 22/08/2007
18h29 New York Time
00h29 South African Time
01h29 Bulgarian Time[/B]

[B]Valid Parabolic SAR Entry Points (Daily Charts):
[/B]
EUR/ZAR - Short *
GBP/NZD - Short

[B]Parabolic SAR Watch List (Daily Charts):[/B]

EUR/NZD
EUR/SEK
GBP/AUD
GBP/JPY
GBP/USD
NZD/CAD
NZD/CHF
NZD/JPY
NZD/USD

  • REALLY not happy with this entry at the moment i.e. China raised interest rates again yesterday and this normally results in the Gold price going down and the ZAR therefore weakening against almost everything else BUT let’s see what happens.

You will notice that although the Parabolic SAR Watch List is becoming shorter (the price of pairs listed the previous day has continued to move away from a reversal point) a few of the pairs keep coming up on this list so I’m hoping that some nice reversals are on their way.

You will notice that in a previous message (yesterday morning early) I was jumping up and down with excitement as there were a few pairs where I thought that a valid Parabolic SAR Entry Point was about to appear and was even thinking of second guessing the indicator in order to get in early. I am mentioning this because a few months ago I would have second guessed the indicator and would now be sitting with and carrying huge losses. Now I know better. The point I’m trying to make: NEVER TRY TO SECOND GUESS THIS INDICATOR!!! At best case - you’ll carry losses with you for a while - assuming you don’t get stopped out. At worst case - you’ll get stopped out and lose a whole lot of money unecessarily. Been there - done it - got the t-shirt!!!

Good trading.

Goodnight.

Regards,

Dale.

130

Good Morning (Evening).

Well - it seems that things are now starting to look up i.e. many new positions opened this morning (evening).

Thursday, 23/08/2007
19h25 New York Time
01h25 South African Time
02h25 Bulgarian Time

Valid Parabolic SAR Entry Points (Daily Charts):

AUD/CHF - Long *
AUD/USD - Long *
CHF/BGN - Short
EUR/CHF - Long
EUR/ZAR - Short
GBP/NZD - Short
NZD/CAD - Long *
NZD/CHF - Long
NZD/JPY - Long *
NZD/USD - Long

* Now I need some help - see below!

Thursday, 23/08/2007
19h25 New York Time
01h25 South African Time
02h25 Bulgarian Time

Parabolic SAR Watch List (Daily Charts):

AUD/CAD
EUR/RON
EUR/SEK
USD/RON
USD/SEK
USD/TRY

* Now I need some help!

Please take a look at the attached daily chart of AUD/CHF. You will notice that a new Parabolic SAR dot has NOT been drawn at the bottom of the chart which would denote a reversal BUT instead the previous or current Parabolic SAR ‘trend’ as it were appears to be continuing. What is strange though is that Parabolic SAR was penetrated the day before i.e. yesterday. I have NEVER seen this before with Parabolic SAR and don’t know what it means. Please would somebody check their representation of Parabolic SAR for this pair (all the other pairs that I have marked with an asterisk above are all exhibiting the same strange representation of Parabolic SAR). Your thoughts on this would be appreciated. I have however opened positions based on the fact that Parabolic SAR was penetrated and in my mind SHOULD have drawn a dot at the bottom of the chart indicating a reversal but I’m not entirely sure that this was the right thing to do. Like I said - I have NEVER seen this before.

Regards,

Dale.

audchf daily 23082007 psar problem.jpg700×513 80.3 KB

131

Good day.

OK - well - sorry I did not update this thread last night (if anyone is monitoring that is) - I did get out of bed to update my positions and move stops etc. etc. - but it is now taking much longer because of the number of positions - and to still update this thread would have meant very little sleep!!!

I think that this will be my last update on this thread - simply because by now - I hope - that anyone monitoring this thread - and possibly using ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR as I like to call it - has got the picture. I am subscribed to this thread, however, so if you want to discuss anything, or add something, then I’ll be notified so please feel free to do so.

[B]Friday, 24/08/2007[/B]
[B]19h31 New York Time[/B]
[B]01h31 South African Time[/B]
[B]02h31 Bulgarian Time[/B]

[B]Valid Parabolic SAR Entry Points (Daily Charts):[/B]

AUD/CAD - Long
AUD/JPY - Long (breaking the rules here - trading four hour for fun)
CAD/JPY - Long
EUR/AUD - Short
EUR/GBP - Short
EUR/JPY - Long
EUR/RON - Short
EUR/SEK - Short
GBP/BGN - Long
GBP/CHF - Long
USD/RON - Short
USD/TRY - Short

[B]Friday, 24/08/2007[/B]
[B]19h31 New York Time[/B]
[B]01h31 South African Time[/B]
[B]02h31 Bulgarian Time[/B]

[B]Parabolic SAR Watch List (Daily Charts):[/B]

Did not find anything pending

Anyway (I know I said I would no longer post my profit/loss position in monetary terms BUT it will just take to long to calculate PIP’s given the number of positions / pairs that I have open i.e at present 33 positions / pairs - running out of available pairs) I am currently on $8148.12 profit (and at some point yesterday it was even as high as over $23K but I’m sticking to the indicator this time round no matter what - it has also gone down to as much as -$3K). I have also not been stopped out or had to stop and reverse yet on any of my positions / pairs i.e. no confirmed losses as yet. I will post my total profit (yes profit - not loss) made on the first day of next month for interest sake. So far - ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR - works for me (it’s keeping me out of sleep though)!!!

Good luck (I hate that phrase - when anyone asks me if I’ve had any ‘luck’ trading today I want to rip their head off - ask me how business went today and I’ll tell you - trading is not luck - it’s f*****g hard work mate)!!!

Good trading!!!

Actually - in closing - I found a good way of describing what you are doing by using ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR - your are ‘tradevesting’ as opposed to just ‘trading’. In other words - don’t look for short term profits using this indicator - you may get ‘lucky’ (like my $50K last week) in the short term - but in the long term - you’ll increase your account balance quite substantially I reckon by just ‘mechanically tradevesting’ using this indicator as it was originally designed.

Thank you Mr J. Welles Wilder Jnr.

Regards,

Dale.

132

Hi Dale,

I see you are minting money these days :wink: good on ya mate. Just wanted to talk regarding deltastock with you…in another thread you were raving about it but after i looked at their website…i get a feeling they are a bucketshop like FXCM Onanda and all…

Your comments would be appreciated.

Regards

Gagan

133

Hi gagan,

Yes - I’m doing well out of forex at the moment - I just hope it lasts (no reason it shouldn’t with ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR by the looks of things so far)!!!

As far as Delta Stock goes - have a look at my messages on the ‘Rate my broker’ forum on babypips.com (as a matter of fact I have to post a retort to someone right now on that thread after finishing this message to you)!

I’m not sure what ‘qualifies’ a broker as a ‘bucket shop’ BUT - compared to my other ‘main’ broker (it’s so bad that I’m scared to mention their name in case my orders get ‘slipped’ even more) - Delta is tops - and - like I say in the aforementioned thread - I really don’t care - the only money I have ever lost at Delta has been my own fault i.e. due to my lack of experience and bad trades - not because I was in the right position at the right time with the right order - and the dealer at my ‘main’ broker was having a coffee break or was too busy so he could not execute my order when it was placed ten minutes ago (these are the type of things I’m told on the phone by the dealing desk when I call to see why the f**k I’ve been waiting so long for an order to be executed)!!! Actually - their ‘record’ (at my so called ‘main’ broker which I’m scared to even mention at this point until I close the account and move EVERYTHING to Delta) is thirty or so minutes to get a stop order executed AND THEN IT WAS STILL ‘SLIPPED’ - can you beat that!!! Get the picture?

Regards,

Dale.

134

I started to do this sar daily yesterday and I now have 13 positions open and 6 of them is in profit, but anyone of them haven’t hit the stop-loss. I just have to give them time to go green

It would be nice if you would keep posting your profit like every friday and say how much you’ve earned.

Do you think it’s a problem that platform that I use, the new sar dot appears at 00:00 but during the day the dot can move from top to bottom?

thanks

135

Hi dundee (any telling where you are from)??? Australia maybe???

I’m glad that someone other than myself is monitoring this thread! Thanks! It makes my late nights worth it!

Unfortuanately - with Parabolic SAR - the most difficult thing to do is to wait until the stop is taken out (and hopefully profit has already been locked in when that happens). I know - when I made all that money last week - I bailed early because I could not stand it anymore. That’s why I say that with this indicator you are ‘tradevesting’ not ‘trading’ i.e. had I not taken all that profit last week when I did - I’ve had a good look - I would not have made as much - no question - BUT - I do believe that although I would not have made as much in those couple of days - I would have made some - not lost - and although last weeks profit would have been less had I not bailed out early - I firmly believe that in the long run - I would come out tops without question. The key - I really believe - is to open your positions - and leave them - don’t try and analyse them - and DON’T look at what the potential loss of your current stop loss is - you’ll get cold feet (on one of my positions - GBP/CAD I think it is - the ‘potential’ loss if the stop gets hit today is something like $7K - and - on more than one occasion this week - I have been tempted to close that position - which is in a small profit at the moment - but - I have not). One thing that gives me ‘comfort’ as it were is that I try to remember that a Parabolic SAR dot does not just ‘appear’ for no reason - there IS a complex calculation behind it.

As far as Parabolic SAR dots ‘jumping’ around during the course of the day is concerned - I have noticed this on two of my three platforms - and - to be honest - I never know what to do - so I don’t have the answer. I suppose I normally err on the ‘risky’ side and accept that whatever dot appeared when the daily chart ticked over then that’s the one I accept and leave (that’s another reason why I make a point of being at my workstation THE VERY MOMENT that the daily chart ticks over so that I am not left to my own devices to make a decision i.e. if a dot has appeared - even if my ‘gut feel’ tells me it should not be there - I take the position - and - I can tell you - that in the last two weeks - Parabolic SAR has been right - and I’ve been wrong - 99% of the time).

Regards,

Dale.

136

Actually - I’ve been meaning to add this post for a little while now:

You know what really ‘fascinates’ me about this indicator? Stare at the charts long enough (I do this all day every day) and it starts to appear that this indicator ‘follows’ or rather ‘keeps you following’ the people who actually KNOW how to trade? I know that sounds strange but have a look at time when there has been a economic release or something like that. Nine times out of ten (OK - maybe not that high but high nevertheless) Parabolic SAR is already moving in the direction of the spike. Just have a look. In other words - it’s almost like this indicator is capable of ‘following’ the banks, the market makers, the ‘people in the know’ if you know what I mean.

Have I just lost the plot???

Regards,

Dale.

137

I rest my case!!!

Durable Goods just out - now over $17K up - almost all of the positions that I have open - were already going in the right direction - thanks to ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR.

There is one other thing that I want to add here:

Please know that I am not trying to ‘boast’ about my profits at the moment. I really am not - I am just trying to ‘prove’ this indicator - and of course - yes - make money. The reason that I mention this is because I know that there are probably a couple of new people out there monitoring this thread - and using this indicator - and seeing what I’ve managed to do in the last two or three weeks - and it’s not working for them - and they are getting discouraged - and feeling low because of the money that they have probably lost. I know because I have felt like this many many times i.e. ‘How come I’m following everything in the book and I’m still losing’? Please do not feel like this (I know it’s easy for me to say right now). I do know how you feel - you’d pass out if you knew the total figure of the money that I am still down to date - but - if there is one thing that I have learned in the past six or seven months - is that if you REALLY want to do this - for the right reasons - and you stick at it - and refuse to let other peoples opinions and comments take you down - and you have patience - and realise that trading is not ‘gambling’ nor is it ‘get rich quick’ - it’s damn hard work - and more stressful than most other jobs - YOU WILL EVENTUALLY SUCCEED! And more importantly - when you do succeed - don’t be afraid to give yourself a ‘pat on the back’ and maybe enjoy a little bit of your profits (and - again - on this subject - yes - PROFITS - THEY WILL COME) - you’ve earned it!!!

What I did come to realise was that although I ‘thought’ or I was ‘convinced’ I was following everything in the book - I really was not - it took me months and months to start using stop losses - and when I started using them - it took me some more time to stop moving them - and now that I’ve stopped moving them - I’m still bailing out because my ‘gut’ tells me to - not for any other good reason and I know that because of my limited experience (there are people that have been doing this for a living all of their lives and are ‘qualified’ to make a decision based on THEIR ‘gut’ feel) I am not ‘qualified’ to make a decision based on MY ‘gut’ feel - and yet - I keep doing it. I hope you get what I’m trying to say. It does not matter what ‘system’ or indicator you use - as long as you actually do have a ‘system’ - and stick to it. When you are chopping and changing between timeframes and setting stop losses here today but then at a different place tomorrow and then changing again and again the next day - you don’t have a system - and you will lose money.

Once again - if you REALLY want to do this for a living - don’t give up - and YOU WILL SUCCEED!!!

Regards,

Dale.

138

i’m from finland.

I forgot to ask you that do you close all your positions for the weekend?

139

dundee:

Finland! You have got to be kidding me!!! I’m so happy!!!

Does the name ‘Tarja Turunen’ mean anything to you???

Nightwish???

So far - no - I intend just leaving them to run UNLESS - I get to some ‘ridiculously’ high profit figure - then - I’ll admit - I’m gutless - I’ll probably close them out!!!

The one ‘good’ thing about having so many positions open is that it would appear that for the most part I’m earning interest as well but that is obviously just because of the direction of things at the moment - it could be going the other way and then I’d be paying interest.

Regards,

Dale.

140

Here is just another one or two observations (I’m not sure what they mean so I’m hoping that somebody with a far better understanding of ‘fundamentals’ and/or ‘technical analysis’ will see this post and give their opinion).

I have noticed that the profit / loss / movement on my (currently) 34 or so forex positions (at one broker) moves almost exactly in tandem with movements of the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq 100 (at another broker) i.e. Dow up - forex profits up - Dow down - forex profits down. What would be a reasonable explanation for this? I could understand if I only had ???/USD or USD/??? forex positions open but I have some weird things open as well like the RON/SEK/NOK/BGN/TRY (when I say ‘weird’ I mean that they are not the major pairs and no disrespect is intended) so why would these positions be affected by, or at least move, in tandem, with the Indices (mainly the US Indices)?

I’ve also started to notice that the more positions I have open - the less the profit on forex positions is fluctuating (I have touched on this before in this thread). In other words - I’m really starting to think that you (I) will eventually land in a sort of ‘perfect hedge’ situation with all of these different pairs and the profit figure will eventually reach an ‘equilibrium’ point where it wont get much bigger or smaller. What do you think? Would it not be better to just be trading, for example, ONLY GBP/??? pairs, or ONLY USD/??? pairs, or ONLY ???/NOK pairs (you get the picture)? Not sure - and can’t get it right in my mind.

Edit:

On the other hand - is it possible that - once your losing positions all get stopped out using Parabolic SAR - and you stop and reverse on all of those positions - that you would land up in a situation where each and every single pair would then be going in the same Parabolic SAR direction? In other words you would land in a position where each and every single pair is basically moving in exact step with the market/s as whole?

On the other (other) had - I did read somewhere that forex pairs don’t move AGAINST each other - each pair actually, really, just moves up and down in tandem with each other to different levels (in the long run that is) or something like that.

Comments on the above would be GREATLY appreciated.

Regards,

Dale.

141

Of course I know tarja turunen and nightwish. You like them?

Nightwishs new lead singer ain’t that good. she just can’t replace tarja.

Am I right that you are from south africa?