Hey Slipper, thanks for posting (where are you from)?
Don’t get me wrong - I’m not abandoning anyone or going anywhere!!!
To be honest I feel that, aside from sharing and being given ideas and input related to trading on this thread, I have ‘met’ some very genuine and good and honest people (I would go so far as to call them friends even although I’ve never met any of them) and I would not give that up for any amount of money!!!
Who else is going to read and listen to my ‘sh*t’ on a Friday night???
I know I have strayed about as far away from the original system (‘pure’ Parabolic SAR) as is humanly possible and - although this may sound strange coming from me now - I still do believe that in the long run Parabolic SAR will turn a good profit. The major problem though is that because we are all trading with limited amounts of money it’s almost impossible to make any ‘real’ money on a monthly basis out of ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR i.e. ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR is for ‘tradevesting’ i.e. long term. Once you break the ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR ‘cycle’ i.e. close out positions at month end because you need to pay bills etc. etc. etc. you’re pretty much ‘screwed’ because it may be ‘forever and a day’ before you can get back into the market based on a ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR signal. I mean - when I had that $50K ‘windfall’ a couple of months ago (when I started this thread) - had I just left those positions (or been able to leave them) alone and not drawn my profits out (to service outstanding back payments of debts) I have no doubt that by now I would be sitting with an EXTREMELY ‘handsome’ balance but it was just not possible to keep my creditors at bay for much longer and to be honest all of my accounts are behind again so I’d pretty much now have to draw again anyway and then the whole cycle would begin again. That’s why I ‘strayed’ quite considerably from ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR.
As also previously stated Parabolic SAR was developed by a commodities trader not a forex trader and while it MAY work on forex pairs it certainly ‘lends itself’ far far better to being profitable on equities and commodities which don’t appear to suffer from the same amount of volatility and ‘violent’ moves as do forex pairs i.e. far less ‘false’ Parabolic SAR signals and the like.
As a matter of fact I’d like to see a more in depth study done relating to this magical statement that ‘markets only trend 20% or 30% of the time’. I’d be real interested to know the percentage ‘split’ between forex pairs and equities and commodities. In other words I don’t believe that the ‘trend percentage’ (for want of a better adjective) is the same for forex pairs as it is for equities and commodities. I mean on the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, DAX (you get the picture) I see a trend of one form or another on a daily basis i.e. very seldom do I see these things ‘stuck dead in the water’ (even if there is a weak trend there is nevertheless a trend) and that’s where ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR excels.
With equities you also get many a ‘heads up’. In other words - I would go so far as to say that 99% of the time - once a huge selloff begins on one instrument or in one exchange - you can be sure that the rest of the world will follow suit. One of the things I do ‘religously’ every morning is check what happened with the ASX, Nikkei, Hang Seng, and MSCI Taiwan and this already (most of the time) is an indication of what’s going to happen with the FTSE, CAC, SMI, DJ Euro Stoxx, etc. etc. etc. during the coming session and in their turn what happens to these indices during the day is another ‘heads up’ as to what’s going to happen with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq etc. etc. etc. when the NYSE opens. See what I mean? You just have more ‘guidance’ (again for want of a better adjective) and if you don’t know what you’re doing every little bit of ‘edge’ that you can lay your hands on is beneficial to say the least.
And lastly - like I said - that $50K was the worst thing that happened to me for the simple reason that ever since that happened I lost focus and neglected my equities trading and I’m now paying a hefty price i.e. I have missed MANY MANY ‘priceless’ moves on the indices in the past couple of weeks because I was ‘taken in’ (like everybody else) by the highly leveraged accounts and the EXTREME volatility that forex pairs exhibit. This all ‘smacks’ of ‘get rich quick’ which as we all know is only a recipe for disaster.
Please don’t think I’m ‘knocking’ anyone who is trading forex pairs i.e. I’m sure that there are people out there that can actually ‘handle’ trading forex pairs and make a very good living out of trading them (if I’m not mistaken Warren Buffet started out as a forex trader and so did a lot of other ‘famous’ and ‘accomlished’ ‘players’ in the business world) but I just don’t seem to be able to ‘get a handle’ on trading forex pairs for some or the other reason.
One other thing that has ‘struck’ me in recent weeks as well is that every single trading book that I have purchased ‘relegates’ forex trading to a section that ‘gives you something to trade if the equities markets are dead’. In other words it seems that (at least to these authors: Bill Williams, J. Welles Wilder, John F. Carter, etc. etc. etc.) that forex pairs are the ‘poor cousin’ to equities. Maybe I’m just reading the wrong books I don’t know.
Another thing (I’m ‘on a roll here’): we are not having ‘record foreclosures’ and people losing their homes ‘left right and center’ over here (although I’m fast becoming a ‘prime’ candidate at the moment - if you’ll excuse the pun - actually - that’s quite a good one - ‘subprime candidate’) and our JSE closes at record levels just about every day and yet our currency is worth ‘sh*t’ in the bigger picture of things. There something ‘inherently’ wrong with this ‘picture’.