Well - OK - according to 'ol Wilder’s system - the potential loss would have been something in the order of about $10 000 or $12 000 (worst case scenario) so I’m not sure how that fits with you (big stops - small profits).
But - OK - GCI will only give you a $50 000 demo account - that’s why I made the lot sizes so big i.e. $5 000 or 10% of capital (I’m working on the premise that if I can ‘scrape together’ $5 000 or so tomorrow then I’ll trade with $500 lots again - see what I’m trying to do). On the other hand I suppose you could trade with lot sizes of 1% or 2% or whatever.
Oh - and by the way - look at Gold again!!! It’s ‘hell bent’ on ‘screwing with me’ I’ll tell you. What I’ve noticed though is that it only seems to get down to the 50 EMA on the 30 minute chart (once today already) and then ‘hovers around’ for a while and then moves back up. Let’s hope it does not drop right through that EMA tonight (although like I said - at the moment - there is not a whole lot more damage that can be done to my forex account anyway)!!!
Well Dale, in my work as an engineer, the phase of the moon is the joke we use to explain why our systems pass tests and then mysteriously fail them, usually when the customer shows up
As for what is going on with gold no idea, but I have learned something in the last few days. If something correlates with something else, ie USDCHF negatively correlates with EURUSD, then if EURUSD hits a resistance level, USDCHF will suddenly stop moving despite not hitting a support level. I got caught with this exact situation earlier in the week, and I couldn’t figure out why USDCHF stopped for no apparent reason.
I know gold correlates with something out there … you might look at whatever it usually correlates with.
i know what u r talking about concering the demo account but as it is a very risky unexpectable busniess i think we have to make sure of what we r doing other wise our account will be wipe out.
i don’t know but i feel that the market today is really waiting the fed news from the USA that is why it is moving in a funny way.forex is unexpected i think and the indices is unxpected too. i really find that any system has it is moments and has it is ups and downs there is nothing 100% sure of but u need to beilve on your system and stick to it no matter what is happing today i saw the (8-21) is not working fine last week it was working perefct all the time this week it is not good so far.and with the news today i don’t feel it is worth it to gamble so i might stay out of the market today .
I never expected the news right beside i belive that if every one expected that the fed will cut the rates then this is something not new and expected nothing will really happen as a major moves it will have an impact for 1 hour o 2 and then it will go back to normal.this is what i think about.
so the big question comes now do u want to take the risk?? well for me i will take the risk!! i know i said i will saty out of he market but as u said Dale if u r away u have the opportunity of not making any money!
I don’t know what I’m doing right, but I’ve had a great week so far - about 20% up, with 15% of that locked and 5% floating. AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD on my main account, all went positive. I bought on the dips in the direction of the daily trend. We will see how the USD news goes today, but I’m not taking any additional trades and will let my protective stops keep me positive if things go the wrong direction.
My other account is up 45% since October 16 - very big moves last night that I was able to capture.
One thing I do is read the FX News from Oanda and see what UBS and others are doing. The analysis has usually been very good and helped me make decisions to trade or stay flat (that’s one reason I’m not in NZD/USD).
I probably won’t be online today, so GL with your trades everyone!
good that u r making money so happy to know that there is someone is doing good this week well to be honest with u i don’t know if i am not concetrating this week as i have lots of shooting and editting may be that is why i am opening postions and expectingto make money very fast i don’t know!!
Dale,
My dearist friend where r u dude??? is every thing is ok? well Dale if u r not posting much that is always mean one bad things i hope that it is not what i think about!!
I’m here. Actually things are good - no problems. I have not ‘topped up’ my live account (stocks) again yet but I’m still running the demo and religiously trading ol’ Wilder’s TBP System. It’s too early to see the results for today because today is ‘one of THOSE days’ i.e. nothing seems to have any ‘clear’ direction although having said that Gold is on it’s way up - and ‘yippee’ - so far I have a position open on my forex account with a $100 profit!!! If I leave that position open until let’s say I’m seventy five years old then it should make about $1K by then!!! And who says that you can’t make money in this business!!!
You trade 8/21 on the M15 right? Maybe the markets are too choppy on that TF this week. I expect to hold my trades for at least 2-3 days so smaller movements don’t hurt me as much. I don’t make as much either, but to be honest I haven’t had much luck on small timeframes. Sure, it looks like there’s lots of movement, but by the time you account for slip and pip to the broker there isn’t much meat left on the bones.
I know I said I wasn’t going to check my account, but I couldn’t resist! EUR/USD hit my protective stop so I banked those profits, then the pair moved on to higher ground. Oh well, better the pips I have than the pips I’ve lost. I won’t re-enter until after Fed data comes out, and maybe not even then. I’ve made a 36% return since last Tuesday (8 days) so if this was my 401k account, I’d be done for the year, and probably next year too!
Flash Update: my TRY carry account has topped 50% return since Oct 16!! Now the $64,000 question: why don’t I have any REAL money in the market? Dale, have you look at the TRY pairs? I’m getting 0.5% interest per day… Your $80,000 in the EUR/TRY and USD/TRY would have you cash without even trying. And here’s the kicker - I entered these pairs based on the “orginal” PSAR! Crazy.
but i feel that the main problem is that the market is moving sideways now waiting for the news to come and then u will find it will go either up or down.i don’t know man but they should do something in the states that no one expect coz i am sure if that happened the impact will be huge coz to be honest how much can the dollar goes down?? i don’t think there are lots of room for the dollar to go down more.
I really hope that the news will come in an oppsite way coz we need to see some moves rather than just waiting and waiting
Other thing that i am trying to investgate is trading back to the daily time frame.
I am saying that coz very soon i will put huge money with good free margin with out over trading my account (hopfully) and i am plaining to let Dale manage my account!!! i am joking dude!!
No seriously what i found is something intresting and please guys have a look and i need comments
THE POINT I WANT TO MAKE IS :
PSAR with the (8-21) EMAS i will not give details on the system more coz i am sure u know all what i mean like when to enter and when to stop
i noticed something vey intresting as well which is when u add the 50 EMA as well to the (8-21) when the 50 crosses the other EMA’S that means u r having a very very very long trend and u should hold your postion till u get stoped but that means u have to hold it like for 20 days or so
ohh y god the dropped the intrest rate more than expected
i think that will have a huge impact let us see
Edit: they announced the intrest rate cut into 0.25% while forex factory.com they said earlier it has been cut to 0.5% any ways i was able to get some pips out fo the news finally but the impact wasn’t that great it went to 50 pips against the dollar and now it is coming back to normal
1200 pips in 2 days. 48% return since last Tuesday.
I feel like a forex god.
Now if I can keep from blowing it during a range…
I’ve been using the methods in this thread, folks. 50 EMA cross, check the PSAR. I also read the analysis from the news feed Oanda provides and dailyfx and use it to help set targets and determine if I should enter. I’ve locked around 900 pips and almost wish I had entered more orders ahead of the Fed but the risk was more than I was willing to take.
Has anyone else looked at the price action this afternoon? If you pull up a M15 chart, you basically remove the 45 minutes around news time and keep the same chart pattern. Like I said, the market discounts the news before it happens this is why we “buy the rumor, sell the news”, b/c after the news the market is done moving!
Conspiracy theories abound in every industry. But the experts say that forex market is basically too large, too volatile, too open, for manipulation. I believe that there is some manipulation.
This is my first post. I have read most of the thread and really like the PSAR idea. I tried it this morning on the Russell 2000 futures market. I got in when the 10 minute PSAR turned up. Got out with a $200 profit real money. Thanks for the insights. I will be playing with the PSAR some more to see what else I can figure out. Tom
There is so much talk of a possible positive reading. If that is so then I expect it will offset the effects of the Fed rate cut, that is, the dollar will experience a mild rebound.
I caught some comments here on Jamaican radio that Citibank is in some problems. Must google that to see details. Wonder of the credit crunch has hit them hard too?
So it will take more than the NFP to revive the dollar.
A nice move would be good for traders. Anyone else here trade the news? Dr zeus says the market is usually already moving in direction of news. The daily PSAR on GBP/USD is indicating a buy; but the 3 hour a sell. RSI and stochs are in overbought territory on the daily.
On the 3 hour TF MACD and Stochs are heading down. RSI (9) is curving back up on the 3 hour. What does that mean. Let’s check the research and edit later.
And see what happens 8:30 am NY time.
My phone line is so weird. The ADSL functions in fits and starts but voice phone not working.
So when I set my alarm for morning trades I may wake to find none of the two is functional. My phone line tend to catch a cold when it rains heavily, we’re now getting rains from outer band of Hurricane Noel plus a trough induced by Noel. What an ironic name so near to Christmas.
Hi folks, still here, but having to use my mobile phone to connect at the moment.
Not a lot of action on the thread lately I see.
Anyway - Birdiemaker - to answer your question:
It’s broker dependant i.e. it’s when your broker’s daily charts ‘tick over’ to the next day. In other words: at two of my brokers the start of the new daily candlestick or bar is at 06h00 South African Time (which is 00h00 New York Time which is where these brokers are i.e. in the USA) and at my other broker the start of the new daily candlestick or bar is at 00h00 South African Time (which is 01h00 Bulgarian time which is where this broker is). Like I said - it’s broker dependant.
Glad u till can check things with your mobile phone.I reading what every one is posting but at the moment i have a hard time with some of the jobs i am having right now so i am not concentrating like before soon will join u guys
Well I am finally taking the plunge and putting real money in the market - a big $100. If I can manage a tiny account like that on Oanda where I can use sensible money management, then I will add more funds in time.
For the curious, the huge 60% return in the TRY carry account is a paltry 5% now. Instead of placing stops or manually exiting trades, I wanted to see how far it the currency would retrace. Some analysts think the USD/TRY will end up at 1.3 in the next few months so I want to see the effect that will have on my account.
Curiously, at one point my Margin Used exceed my NAV! It’s now righted itself and I’m making over $10 /day in interest on a $1000 opening balance, but I’m not sure why I didn’t a trade automatically closed. Even now I have no Margin Available.
I still think the USD/TRY and EUR/TRY pairs will form a part of my overall trading strategy due to the high interest and volatility, but I will have to manage them better and take profits when the opportunity arise (I would never let 60% profits slip away in real money!!)
I’m sorry i haven’t been able to post for a while as I’ve been away working with only limited internet access but I’ll be home tonight so will try to catch up with what has been happening in the thread.
Good to see contributions from everyone and I am not planning on deserting any time soon.
Dale, how are you holding up? Are you just on the indicies now?
Although I have been away I did manage to get on some positions using PSAR and MACD combined on the daily charts and I still feel the system is working. I will post my positions as soon as I get back. Ok, it hasn’t been the best couple of weeks but I feel with proper money management the system can generate profits.
So I need to catch up on what you guys discussed regarding EMA’s etc as I’m about 3 weeks behind.
