Hi guys, i have a question about this system:
For a H4 timeframe, what StopLoss, TakeProfit and Lots i have to use?
Thanks!
John,
I’ve not been using H4 timeframe but the SL on the system is at the value of the current PSAR dot.
Rgds
The latest on my positions.
Now, I have not had sufficent time to attend to trading over the last month but this is the story so far since the end of Sept.
I have still to catchup with the thread but I have been taking all these positions based on PSAR and MACD lines crossing, daily timeframe only.
I have been on quite a losing run with 8 losses in a row but all current open positions are sitting in profit.
Overall I am 4500 USD up since I started which is aabout 18% up on a 25,000 USd initial balance, Demo account only, but I’m doing my best to keep it real. I am very close to going live.
I feel it is important to tune the lot sizes so that the maximum risk per trade is within your trading limits. I’ve been selecting 1% to 1.5% per trade. Trades entered with a large distance to the PSAR dot (SL position) will require smaller lot sizes to accommodate this.
[U]Open Positions[/U]
USD/CHF Short
USD/CNY Short
EUR/AUD short
EUR/USD Long
AUD/JPY Long
AUD/USD Long
NZD/USD Long
EUR/SEK Long
GBP/JPY Long
EUR/AUD is currently at a loss. All others in profit.
[U]Closed Positions[/U]
GBP/USD. Closed manually for a loss after Fed rate cut. -50 pips
USD/CAD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +350 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +5000 pips
AUD/JPY Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +180 pips
AUD/NZD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +190 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on daily PSAR. -5000 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +50 pips
GBP/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100
AUD/JPY Long Stop Loss on reduced timeframe for +650
EUR/AUD Short stop loss on reduced timeframe for +600 pips
EUR/JPY Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +700 pips
EUR/CHF Long Stopl loss on reduced timeframe for +150 pips
EUR/GBP Short Stop Loss for +50 pips
GBP/CHF Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +50 pips
EUR/USD Short Stop loss on PSAR for -100 pips
GBP/CHF Long. Stop Loss for -75 pips
AUD/USD Short. Stop Loss for -120 pips
EUR/AUD Long. Stop Loss for -270 pips
AUD/JPY Short. Stop Loss for -70 pips
NZD/USD Short. Stop Loss for -160 pips
EUR/CHF Short. Stop Loss for -40 pips
CAD/JPY Short. Stop Loss for -20 pips
Regards
Scott
Boca -
Can you explain what happened on the XAG/USD trades? 5000 up then 5000 down? That doesn’t seem right. Also, 18% return over how long? about 2 months, right?
Dr,
The XAG/USD trades of 5000 pips are correct. If you notice the price of silver over the last couple of months it has moved a hell of a lot. But factored into this 5000 pips is the actual price of 1 pip which, would have to be tuned by using a lot size that wouldn’t put the account at risk if the SL was triggered for a loss.
What I am doing on all trades is looking at the position of the SAR dot in relation to the price. The difference is the exposure or risk in the trade and I then choose a lot size that only risks 1 to 1.5% of the account balance if that SAR dot were to be hit.
The 18% or 4500 USD profit on a 25000 USD initial balance is over a two month period. Most of the profit was made during the first month and the month just gone has just about broken even.
Rgds
Boca
Good evening,
A bit quiet on the Forum just now. Everybody ok?
Some new positions opened yesterday afternoon.
[U]Open Positions[/U]
USD/CHF Short
USD/CNY Short
EUR/AUD short
EUR/USD Long
AUD/JPY Long
AUD/USD Long
NZD/USD Long
EUR/SEK Long
GBP/JPY Long
EUR/JPY Long
CHF/JPY Long
CAD/JPY Long
EUR/AUD is currently at a loss. All others in profit.
[U]Closed Positions[/U]
GBP/USD. Closed manually for a loss after Fed rate cut. -50 pips
USD/CAD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +350 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +5000 pips
AUD/JPY Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +180 pips
AUD/NZD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +190 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on daily PSAR. -5000 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +50 pips
GBP/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100
AUD/JPY Long Stop Loss on reduced timeframe for +650
EUR/AUD Short stop loss on reduced timeframe for +600 pips
EUR/JPY Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +700 pips
EUR/CHF Long Stopl loss on reduced timeframe for +150 pips
EUR/GBP Short Stop Loss for +50 pips
GBP/CHF Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +50 pips
EUR/USD Short Stop loss on PSAR for -100 pips
GBP/CHF Long. Stop Loss for -75 pips
AUD/USD Short. Stop Loss for -120 pips
EUR/AUD Long. Stop Loss for -270 pips
AUD/JPY Short. Stop Loss for -70 pips
NZD/USD Short. Stop Loss for -160 pips
EUR/CHF Short. Stop Loss for -40 pips
CAD/JPY Short. Stop Loss for -20 pips
Regards
Scott
Good day all,
Is everybody still alive. Very quiet on here just now. Hope all is well.
Some new positions opened today again and one winning position closed. Things are looking good again.
A lot of these open positions are showing large profits so I have done a bit of profit taking by taking some money off the table by sellling parts.
Current profit since system start is 24%.
[U]Open Positions[/U]
USD/CHF Short
USD/CNY Short
EUR/AUD short
EUR/USD Long
AUD/JPY Long
AUD/USD Long
NZD/USD Long
GBP/JPY Long
EUR/JPY Long
CHF/JPY Long
CAD/JPY Long
EUR/CHF Short
GBP/CHF Short
All but 2 of the above positions are in profit at present.
[U]Closed Positions[/U]
GBP/USD. Closed manually for a loss after Fed rate cut. -50 pips
USD/CAD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +350 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +5000 pips
AUD/JPY Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +180 pips
AUD/NZD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +190 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on daily PSAR. -5000 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +50 pips
GBP/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100
AUD/JPY Long Stop Loss on reduced timeframe for +650
EUR/AUD Short stop loss on reduced timeframe for +600 pips
EUR/JPY Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +700 pips
EUR/CHF Long Stopl loss on reduced timeframe for +150 pips
EUR/GBP Short Stop Loss for +50 pips
GBP/CHF Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +50 pips
EUR/USD Short Stop loss on PSAR for -100 pips
GBP/CHF Long. Stop Loss for -75 pips
AUD/USD Short. Stop Loss for -120 pips
EUR/AUD Long. Stop Loss for -270 pips
AUD/JPY Short. Stop Loss for -70 pips
NZD/USD Short. Stop Loss for -160 pips
EUR/CHF Short. Stop Loss for -40 pips
CAD/JPY Short. Stop Loss for -20 pips
EUR/SEK Long. Stop loss on reduced timefarme for +950 pips
EUR/SEK position closed overnight as stop loss on reduced time frame was hit. Nice profit on this one.
Regards
Scott
Hey Scott,
It sounds like you are having a bit of success. With all the changes that have been made to the trading plan, I’ve tried reading back through the posts to see how you are using the system but I haven’t seen anything. Would you mind telling us your entry and exit rules? (again, if you did so already and I missed them).
I had my first trading day today and everything went haywire on the markets. For some reason the pairs are all moving in directions that don’t make sense to me. I’ve had a couple of winners, a couple of losers, so maybe tomorrow will be better.
Hello Dr,
Here is what I have been doing with the system.
1, Daily Chart only. PSAR and MACD indicators applied. I am uisng Oanda platform and the candles open and close at mid-day in my time zone or 0400GMT.
2, Take trade when PSAR dot and MACD lines have a cross over. This does not always happen on the same day so I only enter when both these signals are signalling to go in the same direction.
3, Stop loss is set at value of PSAR dot on the day the trade is taken and is adjusted each day. So as the trade goes on the Stop Loss will move closer to the price. Once the Stop Loss position moves past the entry position (profits guaranteed), switch to 3H timeframe and set stop loss closer to the price.
4, Money Management. Risk 1% of of account balance per trade. So if EUR/USD trade was taken and the difference between entry price and stop loss was 200 pips:-
100 USD (say 1% of account balance)/ 200 pips = 0.50 USD per pip. Choose a lot size that fits this.
5, Profit taking. Some trades move very quickly and give nice profit within a day or two. Now this is where it comes down to the individual but if I have a nice winning trade that has a profit of 75 - 100 pips, I may take some of this profit by selling half of the position and let the rest run. Once I get to +200 pips I may sell half again. This is up to you.
6, Exceptions to taking a trade. Before jumping in blindly just based on the indicators, I like to look back at the trend and see what has been happening. If the trend has been ranging for ages with frequent PSAR dot change overs, I will not take the trade. If the MACD lines are very flat and have been interwined, i will also not take it until I can see a clear cross over and a direction. I am also careful of signals that have came as a result of a huge jump in one day so I would have to base that on case by case.
I did have the RSI, Stoch and ADX on there for a while as suggested by Dale and co but at that time I was doing fine with PSAR and MACD so I have kept faith with what I have right now.
I do like the suggestion Dale posted about putting a 50 SMA line there and only going long when above this line and going short when below. I feel I could use it this way:-
If I have a Long signal based on PSAR, MACD and 50 SMA, then this is an ideal trade and may increase to 1.25% per trade. Signals based on PSAR and MACD can have 0.75% per trade. This is a thought for now.
Best Regards
Scott
Good day all,
A new position opened today and 4 positions closed overnight with mixed results. Current profit since system start is now at 20.5%.
[U]Open Positions[/U]
USD/CHF Short
EUR/USD Long
AUD/USD Long
NZD/USD Long
GBP/JPY Long
EUR/JPY Long
CHF/JPY Long
EUR/CHF Short
GBP/CHF Short
USD/NOK Short
All but 3 of the above positions are in profit at present.
[U]Closed Positions[/U]
GBP/USD. Closed manually for a loss after Fed rate cut. -50 pips
USD/CAD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +350 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +5000 pips
AUD/JPY Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +180 pips
AUD/NZD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +190 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on daily PSAR. -5000 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +50 pips
GBP/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100
AUD/JPY Long Stop Loss on reduced timeframe for +650
EUR/AUD Short stop loss on reduced timeframe for +600 pips
EUR/JPY Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +700 pips
EUR/CHF Long Stopl loss on reduced timeframe for +150 pips
EUR/GBP Short Stop Loss for +50 pips
GBP/CHF Long Stop loss on reduced timeframe for +50 pips
EUR/USD Short Stop loss on PSAR for -100 pips
GBP/CHF Long. Stop Loss for -75 pips
AUD/USD Short. Stop Loss for -120 pips
EUR/AUD Long. Stop Loss for -270 pips
AUD/JPY Short. Stop Loss for -70 pips
NZD/USD Short. Stop Loss for -160 pips
EUR/CHF Short. Stop Loss for -40 pips
CAD/JPY Short. Stop Loss for -20 pips
EUR/SEK Long. Stop loss on reduced timefarme for +950 pips
USD/CNY Short. Stop Loss on reduced timeframe for +350 pips
CAD/JPY Long. Stop Loss for +90 pips
AUD/JPY Long. Stop Loss for -190 pips
EUR/AUD short. Stop Loss for -210 pips
Regards
Scott
Scott,
Very well thought out. This is similar to what I was demo trading, my only complaint is that placing a stop loss on the PSAR dot seemed too risk-averse. Have you thought about using the ADR to filter that? Effilang suggests a stop loss of 1.5 - 2 of the ADR for his 2550 plan and I think that would work well for us.
I also re-entered the trade if the signal was still strong. This was purely discretionary, but if the 25 MA was moving at a good angle and I had a profit locked in on the my first trade, I would add to it with another position by buying dips on a lower time frame (H4 or H1).
I funded my account two days and yesterday was my first live trading day - and I got burned. My leverage was much too high and the markets were all over the place. I’m considering placing very small trades today on a few pairs that meet trading criteria even if the entry point is well past. I’m too impatient to wait weeks for an entry. We shall see - that may be a bad idea too.
Dr,
Thanks for the comments and congratulations on taking the plunge and going live. I have opened my live account at Oanda and am preparing the documentation for funds tranfer so I hope to join you in the real world soon.
Thanks for the info on ADR and I will take a look at it and see if I can apply it.
Thanks again
Scott
Scott,
It seems like we are the only two left on this thread. How did your USD/CNY short work for you with the negative interest payment? I managed to take a trade there just before the big dip so I’m doing OK but I don’t like taking trades that move against the carry. Was the 350 pips a significant profit over the interest?
So far this week I’m disappointed with myself. I had a great EUR/USD trade last night, but when I took the trade I was debating what TP to set and left it blank. I did reset the SL to BE plus a few pips when the pair was high enough, but I forgot to revisit the TP level. As a result, I made a small profit and missed out on the spike.
I also got greedy on AUD/USD and broke even on a few trades instead of taking the 1% profit I scalped. I shouldn’t even be scalping! Man I feel like such a noob. 
In the end, I’ve regained some of the losses I took this week when I had my first rush of greediness. Better a lesson learned with pocket change now than a beating when I up the ante.
Dr Zeus,
I really dont know what has happened to Dale and Akram and co and why the thread is so quiet. I hope they are all well and are back online again soon.
In my opinion, if I am taking a trade on the daily time frame, the interest differential is a just minor concern compared to the profits I am hoping to earn in pips. USD/CNY gave me a nice profit regardless of the interest.
What time frame are you trading on? I am using this system on the daily only.
Cheers
Hey guys
I have been away for awhile as I had to leave my job and have been unemployed… 
So I’ve been focusing my time on getting into a new job and not trading. However, I’ve still been demoing on Oanda using the 50ema but am thinking about demoing the old PSAR again as you have, Scott. My account will be funded with money soon as I have an interview coming up, so wish me luck. I really want to settle on a system to use when I go live.
Just using the 50 has been okay. For instance, my positions were up 900pips the other day and then went haywire with the crazy market and I closed them out with a profit of 100pips. This is showing me that I might go back to an idea I had of taking profits at 100pips no matter what instead of just letting it go until the indicators reverse. Or taking half at 100 and letting the rest ride or something like that. No more watching it rise to crazy levels and then drop like mad. Might as well take the profits when I have them and leave happy.
I think next week I’ll start demoing the PSAR again and see where it goes.
Until then… Happy trading!
Hello Rob,
Sorry about your employment situation - with any luck we will all be unemployed as we enjoy our forex profits! 
I think the 50 EMA is a great indicator, especially on the Daily and 3H candles. I had a hard week too, and I think there was a lot of bouncing around with all the news. Cowabunga system made a few pips though.
Scott, I am going to try to stick with the daily candle. I admit a rush when trading the M15 and M5 candles, and getting a quick 10-20 pips is fun. It’s also a quick way to lose money and hard to do with my day job.
We shall see how my position in USD/CNY performs. It seems to be moving faster than the interest, and I anticipate a big move at some point when China opens the currency more.
at least it looks that way to me.
i’m pretty new at this forex trading.
havent used real $$$$ yet.
but i back tested just using SAR on different pairs on 4 hour and daily.
the amount of wins to losses is 50/50 , but the wins are 80% of the pips. tha losses are very small
What do you think ?
it seems to easy.
happy pipin
bobby
Welcome Bobby.
It certainly looks easy - most of the systems I’ve read seem easy, until you put real money into it! Then it really tests you.
The biggest problem with using just the SAR is that you stay in the trade long after it has turned, and so you give up pips. The second problem is that the trade only works in trending markets, so you give back the profit you made in the trend if you keep trading when it ranges.
You need to filter out the ranging periods, and be able to keep your profit when the trade turns down. MACD can be a good addition, or a 50 EMA.
I’m not sure how you are getting 50/50 win ratio - I have many more wins than that on the daily candle. Is your stop loss too small?
Good luck with your trading! If you’ve been using Oanda as your practice broker, I recommend putting some money in and trading. The interface is exactly the same and it will give you some confidence to make winning trades. You can start really small since the minimum trade size is only $1.
Dr. Z.
and the wins are a lot higher 80% or higher than the losses
Back testing it seems like just using the Sar i get more profit.
not sure about the margin, swap, interest rate and what ever else i have to worry about.
No, because the winning percentage is irrelevant. What is relevant is profits. If you were to only make 1 pip on those 94% winning trades, and lost 100 pips on the other 6%, you would be 504 pips in the hole in 100 trades. Get the picture?