I am using a ATR based trailing stop. I am still experimenting with different ratios based on the Daily ATR, Hourly ATR and 5min ATR, so I have not yet established a definitive ratio or period yet.
However, even without yet defining the exact ratio, results are way better than a fixed stop and averages a final target of 8-11 stops (R:R) away, which is better than the 3 stops maximum in the original strategy.
Current tests are for the GBP/USD!
good work!
sounds like things are looking promising.
looking forward to seeing the final result 
Hi, I have been watching this thread, and read from the beginning.
I have attempted to follow the instructions for the last 5 days. Have placed the 3 orders in both directions (.18, .06, .06). My results are 1 win (all three), followed by 1 not touched, followed by 3 all losses.
Does this parallel other peopleâs experience? I am on FXDD with a spread I believe of 2 pips.
I was hopeful this would be a winning strategy overall, but so far it is a bit disappointing. Am I doing something wrong, or should I just hang in there and hope for better returns?
these last few days have been disappointing,
but to be fair to the OP, he has got a myfxbook âŚand so far, each month has never resulted in a loss.
the past 2 days i have not traded. more out of laziness than anything else, but i am glad i didnât trade looking at the results for the past few days.
im wondering if i should stop trading this method this month and just start up again at the start of the next month. it seems like at the start of the month i missed most of the profits âŚand now it seems all the loosers are coming.
Well, I think we have to give an oportunity to the system, just have been 3 consecutive days with the 3 possitions lossing, that happened once in may 16th, 19th, 20th.
Iâm still using it in demo account with several pairs.
Hi defiance888,
I just finished your startegy and backtested.
can you suggest me Model to use. i used control points. results shows winning ratio nearly 80%. lol. but my backtest style is not good. here many people says using tick value and having 1min history could be fine.
here is the results.
Hi Pampermil.
Yes, I wasnât suggesting quitting the system, and I do think we need to give it some time. I just wanted to check that others had the same losing 3 trades, and it wasnât just me.
Hereâs hopingâŚ
Hi Vijay,
Sorry I havenât been able to post lately due to a family bereavement. I have made 8 trades since May 27th with 5 wins and 3 losses. All 3 trades in every trading day was either 3 wins or 3 losses. I am [B]+139 pips[/B] in profit overallâŚI am a happy camper. Thanks again, Vijay! :60:
Great trading!
Bob
Hi defiance888,
no reply from you. today i tested on demo. 3 order placed. all 3 wins. lets see upcoming daysâŚ
If trading Inside bar pattern.
Manual method is best because Inside bar can be breakout and fakeout as well.
It depends on where it is formed some time it works as continuation signal and also it work as reversal signal as well.
The reason EA doesnât work with Inside bar and we wonât get quality output is we get less opportunity there.
There are 20-22 trading days in a month and out of these days most of the day it break either high/low and the day when it does not break high/low inside bar is formed.
Now how many day we would have a month forming these inside bar pattern ?
2-3
so it means there would be technically 2-3 trade for the EA in a month.
regards
vijaykumar
hi, sorry for the late reply i was doing other non forex stuff yesterday.
as for what modelling to use. i do not have any experience with backtesting, but from what i know , i know that it is important to have very high quality data or else the results may not be accurate. i found you this step by step guide to achieving this:
How to prepare your tick data for Metatrader 4 | Birtâs EA review
does not matter if it is only 3 days a month. if those 3 days a month has a 80% win rate like he says then all you need to do is up the percentage risked on each trade to get more profit.
[although i think the backtesting results will have to be tested again though on 99% quality first]
tested it on demo?
but there was no inside daily bar. the low on the daily candle for 11th june exceeds the low on the 10th june daily so it wasnât an inside bar, meaning that today [12th june] no orders should have been placed if following the inside bar strategy.
That all depends on the broker you are using. June 11th was an inside bar on Oanda chartsâŚ
Please use correct charting
Preferred NY closing and 5 candles per week
else there will be insider bar on everyweekend
After 3 day consecutive loss there was 3 winner todayâŚ
As long as lot size is managed properly there is no need to panic.
One can see even in the past there were such losing days but goal is for month.
one can see the result here
PARMAR 3P Trading System | Myfxbook
For pro traders matters a closing time of 5 pm EST (21GMT), they treat this like closing market, and this moment is used to calculate pivot points. So if your broker is closing daily candle at different time as 5 pm EST, use just H1 timeframe mark with vertical line every last two 5 pm EST (21 GMT) on your chart, then make two horizontal lines showing higher and lower level of the period between last two 5 pm EST vertical lines. Use tool âdata windowâ in your MT4 to read precisely value of high and low of the candles making YH/YL. Calculate entries based on this levels⌠thatâs all mate
Yes defiance888. i confused the logic and fixed. but overall backtest results since 2013 janauary to current date only 2 trades and wins.
But i wonder only 2 trades we get from 18 months. is it fine?
that too only one inside bar candle we get for 18 months.
There will be more inside bar in 18 months.
Probably every month you get around 2 Inside bar.
Thatâs why i have mention in my earlier post that EA wonât be exciting in trading inside bar.
regards
vijay
In keeping to [I]Vijayâs[/I] original strategy in which there are 3 orders with 3 different profit targets and with a percentage allocation to guarantee that the first order produces a profit even if the 2nd and 3rd are a loss, I would like to suggest the following alteration to the percentage allocation which in my view is mathematically more advantageous.
However, I do need to point out that my formula is based on equal probabilities of all outcomes which I know is not true. In order to be totally accurate I would need to factor in those probabilities. However, even though I am not doing so yet (maybe at a later stage), I feel that the following suggestions would still be more favourable and mathematically more sound than [I]Vijayâs[/I] original allocations of [I]60%, 20%, 20%[/I]; which seem to be arbitrary as far as I can guess.
My suggestion is thus as follows.
Let the values be as such:
[ul]
[li]âaâ represents the percentage allocation for the 1st order with R:R=1
[/li][li]âbâ represents the percentage allocation for the 2nd order with R:R=2
[/li][li]âcâ represents the percentage allocation for the 3rd order with R:R=3
[/li][/ul]
And the conditions to be met in order to improve profitability, should be as follows:
[ol]
[li]âa + b + c = 100%â (So that total loss is our total risk amount, no more, no less).
[/li][li]âa >= ( b + c )â (Therefore we infer from point 1, that âa >= 50%â. This is so that the first order makes a profit, or breaks-even, even if the other two are a loss).
[/li][li]â2 * b >= aâ (Therefore we infer from points 1 & 2, that âb >= 25%â. This is so that the 2nd order of R:R=2 can be equal or more profitable than the first of only R:R=1).
[/li][li]â3 * c >= 2 * bâ (Therefore we infer from points 1,2 & 3, that âc >= 16,667%â. This is so that the 3rd order of R:R=3 can be equal or more profitable than the 2nd of only R:R=2).
[/li][/ol]
So, in order to meet the above conditions and maximise returns, our ratios of âa:b:câ is â50%:25%:16.667%â or the equivalent of âa:b:c = 6:3:2â. So calculating the values gives us the following valid distribution:
[B]âa = 54,545%â, âb=27.273%â and âc=18,182%â[/B]
This would give the following gains for the following outcomes:
[B][ul]
[li]Loss, Loss, Loss = 100% Loss (of Risk%)
[/li][li]Profit, Loss, Loss = 9.090% Profit (of Risk%)
[/li][li]Profit, Profit, Loss = 90.909% Profit (of Risk%)
[/li][li]Profit, Profit, Profit = 163,637% Profit (of Risk%)
[/li][/ul][/B]
Compare this to the original [I]60%, 20%, 20%[/I] which gives the following:
[I][ul]
[li]Loss, Loss, Loss = 100% Loss (of Risk%)
[/li][li]Profit, Loss, Loss = 20% Profit (of Risk%)
[/li][li]Profit, Profit, Loss = 80% Profit (of Risk%)
[/li][li]Profit, Profit, Profit = 160% Profit (of Risk%)
[/li][/ul][/I]
This is just food for thought, because to really maximise returns it would be best to also factor in the probability of each outcome and adjust values in accordance to those probabilities in order to improve the profit factor. If I have time, I will do just that next time, for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the year 2013.
Best regards,
Carnino
