Thanks Carnino, for your reply…I have read baby pips school through,but I´m sure ,that even now to read it again,I could get more out of it.Also manual back testing ,as you described,is familiar for me,but…
Now I would have been very interested to test Vijays 5/15 system this hard way,but my 1 minute chart
(Think Forex,Armada Markets)reach only 2-3 months to previous history.Is it possible to get them out for longer period,in any means?My first post I allocated question to Vijay,but now I would like to ask (I know its not best time to ask it,for your loss)you,Carnino,if you will have suitable time to do it…
If no,I understand it completely.
For more information on obtaining tick data for your charts or for back-testing, review the following link:
Forex Tick Data | Birt’s EA review
thank you Carnino!
Hello , this its great system.i have backtest 5 monts sl 10p tp 10-20-30 pips with position 0.3-0,1-0,1 its too good.Milos
darbujan’s system seems to be a bit different, with higher T/P and S/L. Anyone else tried this?
S.
[B]EDIT: Due to some incorrect parameters that I set on the EA, the results previously published on this post, are all incorrect. For now, I have wiped the previous contents of this post to prevent any misinterpretation of the incorrect data. My apologies for this.[/B]
Hey Carnino, really appreciate all the work you’ve put into this thread. I feel like I’ve learned a lot. I don’t usually post, just read the threads, but the effort you’ve put into this thread has been amazing…I just had to give my thanks.
I do have a question though (and forgive my newbie-ness if it’s a dumb question). I see in your chart that you’re gain for the daybreak with the trailing stop was 50.44%…in the post 228 (I’m not able to put a link up yet) this system produced 500% gains. Was there a change in the strategy that accounts for the difference, is it variance or is it just some dumb thing I’m missing (lol, very likely).
Thanks for any info
Yes, there is an important difference. In this table, and in order to have a fair assessment of the variations, I used [B]24hrs (1 day)[/B] for the [B]expiration of pending orders[/B] for all the strategies, so that all could be on equal par.
In the previous Post#228, my method used [B]240hrs (10 days)[/B] expiration for pending orders. In Post#229, one of my suggestions for improving the original strategy was to prolong the expiration period. In this table however, I wanted to show that the expiration was not the most important improvement, but that the [B]trailing alone without any take-profit point is the primary factor in its profitability[/B].
Also, please remember that the previous tests were for 52 weeks in 2013 and that these tests are for 33 weeks in 2014 which also accounts for variance in the results.
[B]Important note! [/B]I’ve attached the Back-test reports from [I]MetaTrader 4 Strategy Tester [/I]to Post #606!
Carnino,sorry I have to ask you one thing: I cannot keep my pc open all the time now,so do you see any harm to use 10 days expiration also with Parmar 5/15 strategy? Thanks in advance!
The main strategy (including all the variations), is based on [B]Daily Breakout[/B]. That means that, if you are trading manually, you will have to put in the effort of [B]religiously checking your charts and placing the pending orders EVERY DAY[/B] after the New York close, independently of the expiry time (which is set when you place the orders so that they will expire automatically, even if you are not online). So, if you are not able to do this, then this strategy is not for you and it does not matter what expiry you use, because you will ultimately just loose money.
Obviously, after you have placed the pending orders (no matter how long the expiry time), you can then go about your day, since it is basically a set-and-forget strategy. Just be aware of the possibility of slippage and how it can affect your orders (it has been discussed here on the thread on several occasions).
As to the usability of prolonged expiry times with other variations, yes you can use them and the most profitable times are between 7 and 10 days, depending on variances and currency pairs. However, do not use prolonged expiry during summer months due to the inconstancies presented during these months for breakout strategies.
Thanks again your quick reply!My main point was,that my pc have to be open,if I want to get benefit of use trailing stop.Therefore I need now fixed TP,unfortunately…But time to set orders,no problem with it,although
it`s middle night here:)…I am also glad for opportunity to use longer expiry time with this above strategy,anyway I´ll wait some one month now,waiting end of summer season…
Carnino,
If I am trading manually with just the trailing stop of 5 pips (no SL, and no TP), should I be adding the broker spread (average of 1.5 pips) making the trailing stop at 6.5 pips?
I am adding the 1.5 spread to the high breakout, but zero spread to the low breakout. Correct?
Keep up your stellar work on this strategy! :35:
Great trading!
Bob
Hello Bobkat,
I would like to challenge you to answering your own question by following some guidelines. It is not that I don’t want to answer you, but that I think that it is in your own best interest to understand how it affects the strategy. So here is the main question that needs to be asked in order to better understand the situation:
[ul][li][B]How does spread vary on the currency pair in question?[/B][/ul]
[/li]One thing you can do is to run a [I]Spread Tracking Indicator/EA[/I] on your chart over an entire week to collect information about how spread changes minute by minute. You will find one such Indicator on MQL4’s Codebase written by me (‘Spread Tracker’ indicator by ‘FMIC’ for MetaTrader 4).
[I]EDIT: Use v1.0r2 if you are using a 5 digit broker (this is important due to an inconsistency in MT4).[/I]
The importance of this, is that you will gain an insight into how the spread behaves, especially during the breakout and triggering of a pending order. You have to remember that breakouts are very popular and at that precise moment many orders can be triggered and spreads can instantly widen. Obviously this does not always happen, but it can and you have to be ready for it.
Equally important and often correlated with the spread, is the slippage. Usually it is a positive slippage that takes place when the pending orders are trigged, but not always. This you can monitor by comparing the original pending price with the triggered one. By analysing these two factors, you can see how they affect your choice of stop-loss.
Another factor which is important, is the Stop-Levels defined by your broker for the currency pair in question. If your Stop-Levels are large, then you are forced to use a large stop-loss and have no choice in the matter.
With all this information at hand, you may come to the conclusion that you don’t have to change a thing, or you might decide that spread has a large impact and so widen your stop-loss, or you may even find it beneficial to tighten it. The fact is, that everyone trades under different conditions (brokers, account types, etc.) and so it is better to see what is the best solution for you and your circumstances.
You are welcome to continue discussing this issue here with me as that will also help others understand, but I am hoping that others will also accept the challenge and do the same. Instead of blindly following any suggestions I make, traders will in this way better understand the mechanics and apply it to other strategies.
Hello Carnino,
in your post #269 you wrote: "…I decided to run some back-tests of my own with your 1 pip Trailing Gap technique and I was surprised to find that it does in fact improve profit quite a bit. On the EUR/USD the difference was not that high but on the GBP/USD, the change was considerable.
It did however decrease the profit factor and the win rate somewhat and increased the drawdown slightly, but the impact it had on the profit is quite noticeable…"
Is it possible for you to show the results of the 1 pip trailing gap technique in your overview in post #606 to compare it with the other ones, especially with your favourite strategy (5 pip stepped trailing)?
Thank you and regards,
Dax
[B]EDIT: Due to some incorrect parameters that I set on the EA, the results previously published on this post, are all incorrect. For now, I have wiped the previous contents of this post to prevent any misinterpretation of the incorrect data. My apologies for this.[/B]
Thanks carnino…
Thank you Carnino.
Am I right that “trailing gap” of 1 pip will be set after trade is 6 pips in profit?
Yes, that is[I] Vijay’s [/I]original implementation but [B]I do NOT recommend doing it that way[/B]. [I]Vijay’s[/I] implementation worked well for 2013, but not for 2014. So, my implementation is slightly different because it works better for both years, hence the name change I made.
In [I]Vijay’s[/I] case he adds the gap to the trailing point so that for a 5 pip stop, at 6 pip profit he sets the stop to 1 pip, at 11 pips profit he sets the stop to 6 pips, at 16 pips profit he sets the stop to 11 pips, etc.
In my implementation, the stops remain the same but only the break-even one changes, so that at 5 pip profit, I set the stop to 1 pip (instead of break-even), and the rest remains unchanged so that at 10 pip profit I set the stop to 5 pip, at 15 pip profit I set the stop to 10 pip, etc.
[B]I recommend my implementation for GBP/USD for 2014, namely the [I]Break-Even Offset[/I], with 0.5 pip.[/B]
The reason I have not mentioned it thus far is that I was reserving it for the new thread, but since you requested information on it, I felt obliged to describe it here on this thread.
Thanks guys for all the great and interesting input. I have been following the system and the different variations with mixed results. As Carnino said before we have to take into consideration a host of different factors when trading break outs.
Last night for instance my sell order was triggered and should have turned in a profit as the pair went down considerable upon UK news. But shortly before the release the pair spiked and my 5 pip SL was hit. I checked this morning and in order to avoid the spike and slippage I would have had to set my S/L to 15 pips! I am with Oanda and I am now considering a different broker, as we have had issues with spikes and so-called boundary violations all the time. If I understand the essence of this strategy correctly it depends on narrow and precise entries and exits. So the question of the right broker, to make this system profitable, seems important. Carnino has mentioned that before as well.
What experience have you guys had with your brokers?
At the end I would like to say that I am still a beginner and have a long road ahead of me but am determined to learn this and would like to thank all of you who are so patient and self-less with people like me. 
Angela