Which reputable broker are you guys using that gives you 1.5 pip spread on GBP/USD?
1.5 on GBP/USD and 1.0 on EUR/USD were just reference values used for testing since this thread was started. There are many brokers and account types that offer spreads lower than that. [I]Dukascopy[/I] for example averages around 0.8 - 1.0 for GBP/USD.
[B][I]MyFXBook[/I][/B] also has a reference list of brokers and spreads which can give you an idea, but there are other such lists on the web.
Hey carnino, have you backtested your version of the strategy (100% lot, 5 pip stop, trailing stop, pending orders expire in 240 hours) for any other year than 2013? I know you recieved pretty large gains for GBP/USD for 2013 (500+%); I’m wondering if there’s any kind of large year-to-year variance.
Thanks in advance
I am reserving those results for the new thread I am preparing.
I’ve been trying to hold back on information about my variations and only posting information on this thread pertaining primarily with [I]Vijay’s[/I] strategy. I say “trying” because some information does get posted here anyway.
Since my last post I had 6 days of orders:
total of 21 entries; 13 wins; 8 losses
Ongoing position for the month: +9.3%
Admittedly this is still on a demo account (and with the original manual 3 lot trading) but definitely looking better this month.
Anyone else got up to date figures to share?
S.
According to Dax shorter (babypips member) summer is worst for breakout. July was the worst month. So far this month the system is picking up some positive results.
Thanks a tons to carnino and other member for sharing their views and ideas. Few changes in system can produce better results than one should go for it after testing.
regards
vijay
For those interested, there is a recently created thread on another variation of daily breakouts, which has an interesting filtering mechanism that might be of use here too. The thread in question is named “Consistent & Accurate Breakout”!
He uses the Monthly and Weekly Open price to filter the breakout trades to only long or short during that period. In other words, he only trades with the trend.
I will try to incorporate the filter and post back-test results here as well as the other ones that I promised to correct and have not done yet.
Here are the corrected back-tests that were originally published in Post #606 and Post #616. These are back-tests requested either privately or here on the thread, for variations of the original strategy for 2014 based on tick data provided by Dukascopy.
NB! Please note that the P/L Ratio and Kelly Factor are calculated based on pips and not money.
[th]Period[/th]
[th]Symbol[/th]
[th]Spread[/th]
[th]High Offset[/th]
[th]Low Offset[/th]
[th]Expiration[/th]
2013.12.30 - 2014.08.15
GBP/USD
1.5 pips (fixed)
1.5 pips (spread)
0 pips
24 hours
[th]Strategy[/th]
[th]S/L[/th]
[th]Trail[/th]
[th]B/E Offset[/th]
[th]PF[/th]
[th]Gain[/th]
[th]Win Rate[/th]
[th]P/L Ratio[/th]
[th]Kelly[/th]
[th]DD[/th]
[th]Trades[/th]
DayBreak.Trail
5
5
0.0
1.58
61.31%
55.63%
208.93%
34.39%
13.82%
151
DayBreak.Trail
5
5
0.5
1.61
65.89%
55.63%
142.62%
24.52%
13.39%
151
DayBreak.Trail
5
5
1.0
1.57
60.20%
55.63%
138.33%
23.55%
12.95%
151
[th]Strategy[/th]
[th]Allocation Ratios[/th]
[th]S/L[/th]
[th]T/P[/th]
[th]PF[/th]
[th]Gain[/th]
[th]Win Rate[/th]
[th]P/L Ratio[/th]
[th]Kelly[/th]
[th]DD[/th]
[th]Trades[/th]
PARMAR-1P
1
5
15
1.44
58.45%
33.11%
300.00%
10.82%
11.99%
151
PARMAR-3P
6/3/2
5
5 (×3)
1.33
33.00%
43.71%
182.83%
12.92%
10.39%
453
PARMAR-3P
3/1/1
5
5 (×3)
1.32
31.42%
43.71%
182.83%
12.92%
10.52%
453
PARMAR-5P
60/30/20/15/12
5
3 (×5)
1.34
26.97%
46.27%
160.47%
12.78%
8.38%
737
PARMAR-3P
3/1/1
10
10 (×3)
1.17
15.72%
39.96%
179.01%
6.41%
13.66%
453
PARMAR-4P
1/1/1/1
10
5 (×4)
1.13
10.88%
50.83%
111.07%
6.56%
12.95%
604
PARMAR-4P
12/6/4/3
10
5 (×4)
1.15
10.23%
50.83%
111.07%
6.56%
11.33%
604
And here are the MetaTrader 4 Strategy Tester’s Reports in a ZIP archive:
Various_Backtests_2014_Corrected.zip (391 KB)
In a previous post, quoted above, I commented on how the filters described might be of interest to improve the results of both PARMAR-3P, PARMAR-1P and my DayBreak-Trail strategies.
The strategy itself described in the aforementioned thread is not of interest because it has a much lower gain and lower profit factor than the ones in this thread, mainly due to its reverse risk to reward ratio. In fact, I ran several back-test to make sure of this and can confirm that it is greatly inferior with regard to most of the metrics, especially gain, when compared to the PARMAR variants or the DayBreak-Trail.
So even though the strategy is worse, the filtering mechanism used, caught my attention. It uses two filtering conditions, a Weekly Open and a Monthly Open to select whether to only go long (Buy) or just go short (Sell).
In back-tests, the two filters did offer some improvement but not enough to impress me. Overall, it slightly increased some of the metrics such as Profit-Factor, Win-Rate and Kelly, but it reduced the Gain considerably, thus invalidating any possible value that these filters could have.
In summation, Vijay’s PARMAR-3P, PARMAR-1P and my DayBreak-Trail are still top runners for Daily Breakout strategies as they stand.
Goodness Carnino, just how much time do you spend doing these back tests? I’m sure others will want to agree with me just how helpful this all is.
Thanks for all your hard work and consistent support.
Quick question: you mentioned your own new thread following some variations from Vijay’s original ideas. Will you be posting a link to that here?
Best regards,
S.
It may have taken him no time given his masterful skill and experience?
Thank you and it has been my pleasure to do them!
Don’t worry! I will be posting the link here too once it is up!
Very much looking forward to it!
I would like to exchange an indicator here with you my friends who perform this strategy manually.
Here is the indicator which allows you to set vertical lines when the NY market closes.
Set when the NY closes (easly check this in myfxbook.com/dashboard) in the indicator and press OK.
P.S. I just seems I cannot attach the indicator… I loaded it to file bank in the internet filedropper.com/vlineattime.
P.S.S It seems that I am not allowed to post any hyperlinks also. Guys write down www in front of the links 
find out the workaround.
Although I applaud your sharing of an indicator with your fellow traders, you should however, in the spirit of [I]BabyPips[/I] be sharing the source code as well and not just a “.ex4” executable. With so much information shared here freely and openly, why do you wish to hide what the indicator does by only providing an executable.
I am just making the counter of messages going 
Sorry, for that. Here you go Free File Hosting - Online Storage; Upload Mp3, Videos, Music. Backup Files
I do also found an indicator of daily box but it seems it is not compatable with new MT4 upgrade. While compaling it gets a bunch of errors. I will try to simplify the code that it could work properly and share here.
[QUOTE=Carnino;649768]Here are the [B]corrected back-tests[/B] that were originally published in Post #606 and Post #616. These are back-tests requested either privately or here on the thread, for variations of the original strategy for 2014 based on tick data provided by Dukascopy.
Carnino
First my condolence
And thank you for making PARMAR3P better and thanks to Vijay for sharing the system
Thirdly, have you backetested other pairs and are the outcome like the GU and EU? And if not why?
Thank you!
Yes, I did do back-tests for other currency pairs for my own trading and with different stop sizes. I only posted results for GBP/USD mainly as a way of providing proof of concept and as an incentive for traders to do some research and testing of their own.
So, if you have an interest in some different currency pairs or metals you wish to trade, then you are welcome to contribute to the thread by doing some tests of your own and postings the results here.
Best regards,
Carnino
Is anyone still trading this strategy or is the thread dead? :33:
Well, my previous post was 3 days ago, so no - it is not dead for me!
As for [I]Vijay[/I], he has not been participating, so I think for him - maybe it is dead!