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USD/CAD - W, breakout of an ascending channel. This setup did not get triggered for me 2 weeks ago, but the markets are giving me a second chance with the current pinbar that is retesting the previous support now turned in to resistance.
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GBP/AUD - D, price is retesting the last major swing point at around 1.8200. So far we didn’t get any type of reaction, but it’s on my whatchilst definitely.
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GBP/CAD - W, price made a massive swing to the downside, and now is in retracement mode. If it comes back to retest fibonacci level 38.2% which is almost to the pip at the major infliction point of 1.6600, i will be all over this setup.
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NZD/JPY - M, price finally broke to the downside from a major infliction point which hasn’t been broken for the better part of the decade (lol). I will be monitoring this pair in the following months to see weather i can get some entry and hopefully ride this strong bearish momentum.
I also trade another system from Hector de Ville, the 3 SMA - also on the higher time frames, but since this is a trend trading strategy, i have also added the 4H in my watchlist, since the 4H has proved slow enough for me to have enough time to reach to a potential setup.
For the upcoming week i have 2 potential setups to ride the trend. The only problem is, that both pairs are GBP pairs, and i am already involved in a EUR/GBP Short on the weekly time frame which is currently in profits. I do not want any type of double exposure, since that is utter nonsense (just my opinion). I will not explain how the strategy works in this post.
- GBP/USD - D, potential short opportunity.
As you can see from the screenshot, the trend indicator is signaling a bearish trend on the Daily time frame. Price is currently in retracement mode from the latest swing. The Fibonacci areas marked on my chart is the area where i will be looking to sell from(even though i wont as a mentioned earlier). I like this setup because i have a confluence of resistance at around a specific area. I have the Fibonacci retracement, the previous swing low, and the D.A.S.R (Dynamic Area of Support &Resistance - between the 30 and 50 SMA, the red and green SMA).
- GBP/CHF - D, potential short opportunity.
Almost the same scenario as the previous pair, with the added benefit that in here we can add a clear and precise trendline. Out of 2 pairs, this is my favorite, because the trend is better looking visually, and the bears have a stronger defense. But again, i can not take this trade since i am already involved in a GBP trade.
Notes:
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I will be monitoring these 2 setups throughout the week
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I am thinking about opening a separate demo account for opening these types of trades, but i am not 100% sure about that. I kinda think that it’s just gonna mess up my trading plan and discipline.
Looking forward to any type of feedback on my trading journey (journal), since my plan is to go live by the end of the year - beginning of 2020 the latest.
Here is a perfect example of why you need to go over your charts multiple times, not just glance over them once - you might miss something!
As i was finishing up with my Sunday obligations, i decided to make another scan of everything, before i prepare the calculations for the positions i plan to open. And i noticed a 3 different charts that i missed.
2 of them were not immediate, but one of them is a setup for Monday (if anyone wants to take that trade)
GBP/NZD - Daily Time Frame, a breakout to the upside from an infliction point
I think i missed this is because majority of the setups i have been seeing lately were short positions, and my mind probably didn’t even notice this, which is crazy, but nonetheless.
This is a pitch perfect setup, a strong bullish breakout candle, and then a pinbar to signify the pullback and also giving me a perfect entry. The only problem is, again, i am already involved in a GBP trade, and i can not take this do to my risk management policies.
I’m sure you’re not worrying about trades you can’t take because you’re doing good trades elsewhere already.
Your candlestick pin bar isn’t a good pin bar. The tail projects back into price action, part of the uptrend. It is a shooting star or hammer candlestick suggesting bullish continuation but again not dramatically significant as a signal as it occurs in an uptrend and is also an inside bar.
Technically the shooting star works better as a bearish harami as the body is bearish, and lies inside the bullish body of the prior candle. Despite its name this is a bullish continuation signal.
So anyway, net result is the same as you say, bullish continuation.
My USD/CAD position did not get activated, and the short on EUR/GBP is still meandering around the entry level.
I havent looked at anything else, cause i am tired as hell, going to sleep now. I will check op on my whatchlist before i go to work tomorrow.
EUR/GBP is around 50 pips in profits, and USD/CAD is currently in minus, even though when it got activated it looked like it’s gonna continue pushing to the downside.
I am not posting any screenshots now, since these are weekly setups, and i need to wait for the weekly candle’s to close.
I zoomed in down to the 4H to see what is happening, because price is still flip flopping around entry levels.
I drew some intra day infliction points where price has stalled.
Also i will upload a screenshot from the Daily and Monthly time frame just to have a better overall view of what i am looking at.
EUR/GBP - 4H
EUR/GBP - D
The pair went almost 70 pips in profits, and then retraced all the way to entry level, forming some kinda of a pinbar on the weekly chart. This is a very long term outlook, my entry just got triggered, i need to be more patient for the setup to develop.
Weekend update:
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USD/CAD is in minus 72 pips
Price action has been stuck in sideways movement since this position got triggered. Basically we are stuck between the lower part of the trendline that is currently being retested from bellow, which is right around the 50.00% Fibonacci level, and the major infliction point of 1.3000.
I like the fact that the retracement has been contained within the Fibbo are i am looking for - 38.2% and 61.8%, as you can see from the daily chart screenshot bellow.
Price keeps compressing, so we are definitely going to get a volume move next (potentially).
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EUR/GBP is in profits 42 pips
For this pair i already posted previously, it’s in profits, but not even close to what i am aiming for. I did not close half of the position, nor did i trail my stop loss just a little bit to reduce my risk, but i am considering doing that once the markets open.
Check out this sweet setup on the Monthly time frame. A pinbar which i am not able to trade since i am already to exposed in the market.
Today i connected my demo account with my FX Book, and i got slapped in the face.
Obviously i have an overexposure problem, since i am trading long term setups. I have not been sticking to my 3% rule.
So, starting from now, i am setting up a few new rules and regulations for my own trading.
- Only expose 3% in the market at any time.
- If your open position which has 3% risk, and it is not secured in profits with a trailed stop loss to at least break even, do not take any positions.
- Be ultra conservative when picking setups, only pick the best looking ones, and this is strictly from a visual technical analysis point of view.
- No matter how good a setup looks, and even if it’s a different system you are trading, if you are already exposed, DO NOT TAKE ANY TRADE.
- If you can trail your stop loss where you reduce the risk of the open position to 1.5%, then you are welcomed to open a new position with the risk of 1.5%, and this is the only scenario where you can do this.
- Do not force trailing your stop loss in order to open a new position, only trail the SL if your trade has enough breathing room after the corrected stop loss has been applied, otherwise you are just being an idiot.
I am opening a new demo account, same trading principles, just a smaller starting balance, and more strict rules for trading.
Obviously i need an account where i will practice all i want, and one where i will actually be conservative, with the first one a started, things just got messed up as crazy. I will update very soon.
Good job! Keep up the good work!
Well, my EUR/GBP position on the demo account of 10k which i will be using for playing around with setups, is 130+ pips in profits, which is amazing.
I took out 50% of the lot size, trailed my stop loss to break even, and wil let the remaining run to the next support level, cause now it is a risk free trade.
This is cool. Discipline is an important tool in forex trading
Well spotted. I had missed candlestick patterns on very long-term time-frame charts previously but just yesterday started to track hammers / shooting stars / pin bars on the weekly chart. My aim is to use this to filter out the weaker trades: should be very useful. Already marked to avoid shorting EUR/AUD and EUR/CHF for the time being - bullish weekly hammers.
mhhh… I think I fell into the trap, yesterday I did short EUR/AUD
I’ll check what happens in the next couple of days.
EUR/GBP is 152 pips in profits (it was up almost 180, then it retraced a bit). I am still not sure weather to close this position at the end of the week, or keep it ruining. Technically it is a risk free trade, since i trailed my stop loss to break even, but i do want to cash in more profits than i originally risked, since basically i already cashed out 50% of the position, I’ll just wait and see how this week the candle closes, so far things are looking good.
Here is the weekly chart, where i originally took the trade.
EUR/AUD is 73 pips in profits, and things are looking good. I am having bad thoughts in regards to the fact that when i zoom in on the Daily chart i saw an entry point i could have taken, where mu R:R would have been amazing, but the system i am trading does not allow that, so i really need to practice sticking to my trading plan and stop the wishful thinking.
Here is how the chart looks like.
Here are some other potential trades i am looking at:
AUD/CAD - Short, Daily TF
EUR/CHF - Short, Daily
EUR/JPY - Short, Daily TF
GBP/CHF - Short, Daily TF
Lessons i’ve learned so far.
1. Stick to your trading plan like a blind man to his stick.
2. Be extremely picky with the setups you take.
3. Lower expectations and allow unlimited patience for your setup ups to develop, because i am trading the longer time frames
4. Do not have more than 3% in the market at any given time, even if you are looking at a perfect setup, if you can not enter the trade from a risk management point of view, do no enter the trade!!!
I closed my EUR/GBP short at 198 pips in profits!
This is the most profitable trade (in terms of pips gained) in my 4 year trading career.
A week ago i said i am gonna stop my 10k demo and open a new account. What i fail to realize over and over again is that loosing is a normal part of trading.
I closed the position at 198 pips, and if i was patient and stuck to my trading system, i would have closed it at 230+ pips in profits, because price kept pushing down for the rest of the day, before finally closing 30+ pips lower then my target.
So again, STICK TO YOUR SYSTEM, REGARDLESS OF YOUR EMOTIONS.
I swear to god guys, if you need a little bit of drama and excitement in your life, just start trading forex, it’s a drug with ups and downs, a complete emotional roller-coaster.
Here are some interesting facts from My FX Book:
On the 4H chart we can clearly see the downtrend and profit taking levels. This is another confirmation that the Part Time Trading System is profitable.
Yes i could have sold this pair at a higher price, which would have been an aggressive entry. Being aggressive with my trades is not something i am comfortable with at this point in my career. Even if the profits are smaller, i would much rather be less profitable but stable, instead making huge profits, but my winning percentage is bellow 50%.
This trade made around 4%, so i am also satisfied with the fact that when i am winning i am making more than i am loosing, which is probably the most important aspect of trading.
Lessons i learned from this trade:
- Be patient
- Being conservative pays off
- Always manage your trade after you open it
- Do not close the trade early because of news events, i am trading the longer time frames, news is just a small flicker on the chart
- Trailing my stop loss once the distance in profits was equal to the distance from entry to stop loss is probably the strongest tool a trader has.
Here is how it looks on my chart with the levels marked.
Just finished my watch-list for this week.
Here are screenshots from the pairs and setups.
I kinda figured out that i am completely ignoring the Daily setups, and that is creating a small portions of the problems i am facing when trading, so i decided to actually do my homework properly for this week.
