Part Time trading journal

I trade 28 currency pairs, and rarely focus on one.
But i am noticing something interesting from a technical perspective that is happening with the most popular Forex pair - The Fiber (EUR/USD) on the Monthly time frame.

This is a long term outlook, and it will be a top down analysis.

This is how the monthly chart looks for this pair.

Map:
Pink - Monthly
Blue - Weekly
Red - Daily

Obviously this pair has been in a bearish trend for the past 12 years.

Even though the horizontal level has been broken 2 times before, and now again towards the downside. With the volume we have seen this month, price came back up to retest that significant level, and it touched the level to the pip, and immediately went back down, signifying strong market rejection. The monthly candle is still ticking, and we are seeing a formation of a very nice pinbar on the monthly time frame. Of-course, we need for that ticking candle to close in order to make any type of a decision, but so far it looks promising.

If we zoom down to the weekly time frame, we can see a combination of a railway tracks and an outside bar, but both formations very ugly looking, and not the type of price action i would like to get involved in.

For now, i don’t plan on putting a sell stop order based on this weekly candlestick formation, even though i am tempted. Right now, it’s important that i am noticing heavy market rejection, and a potential further move to the downside.

And lastly, i want to share what is happening on the daily time frame.

Basically, after that big push to the upside, price went in to retracement mode, retaracing to the pip to 61.8 Fibbo level. This is great, cause it’s a signal that all the traders are looking at this level.
My train of though is that if price breaks bellow the 61.8, and retests it from bellow, that could be my entry signal, since it will be a confirmation that the bulls are regaining control, and the downtrend is continuing.

Here is the daily chart with Fibbo:

Without overloading this post with to many screnshots, if you zoom up to the Weekly and Monthly with the fibbo, you can see that all formations line up to the 61.8.

Conclusion: I know i have a bearish bias, and want to go short, weather i will get that opportunity this month on the D, W, or a i will play it uber safe by waiting for the monthly to close, remains to be seen.

Here is a good example of why playing it conservatively is a better trading strategy. At least from my point of view.

This is EUR/CAD - Weekly TF.

I set up a pending sell stop order based on the previous week’s candle, which was a pinbar.
The trade would have been activated if price ticked 5 pips bellow previous weeks high (conservative approach), but since the bulls rallied, my position never got triggered.

If i would have played it aggressively - which meant clicking on the sell button as soon as this week’s candle opens, i would have scored a loss now.

I’ve read a lot of good arguments for being aggressive, but to be honest with you, none of them make sense to me, or to be more precise to my style and philosophy of trading.

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There has been a significant increase in volume in the Forex markets lately. This means that levels, that should have been retested in a few weeks or months, are being tested right now.
I’ve got a bunch of potential opportunities, mainly on the weekly time frame.

All of these are potential pending order trades i am looking to take once the market opens on Sunday evening. Of course, if price doesn’t make a crazy 100 pip move on any of these pairs today.

Also, all of them are pinbars, or heavy market rejection. Obviously i can’t trade all of them, some of them do stand out as better looking from a technical perspective.
I will have a look at this again tomorrow, once the candles actually close, to reassess the situation, and pick a pair i am going to go for, while consulting with the economic calendar.

  1. CAD/JPY - W

  1. EUR/GBP - W

  1. GBP/JPY - W

  1. NZD/JPY - W

  1. GBP/AUD - W

  1. EUR/CAD - W

  1. CAD/CHF - W

After a long process of elimination, i managed to get the 10 potential setups down to just 2.

EUR/CAD - W
GBP/JPY - W

I took in to consideration major levels of S/R above and bellow, and also cut out pairs that were double. So if i had GBP 3 times, i would pick the best GBP pair.

Also, i risked 3% in total, about 1.60% on one pair, and 1.40% on the other.

Here are the setups:

Update:

This is a mid week update on my 2 previous stop orders. The full picture update will be on Friday evening, because both setups are on the weekly time frame, so that is the time frame i will base my decisions on for managing the trade.

GBP/JPY got triggeed

  • Details:

Entry: 133.089
Stop Loss: 122.440

Target: I have a combination of open target & major levels of S/R, depending on volume. The open target part is a time based policy. Basically i close the position upon the close of the first profit candle, or a close 50%, and leave another 50% for the second reaction candle if there is any. But the forex markets are not always so generous. so sometimes we have to be a bit more patient and actually wait for some potential profits.

Here is how the current chart looks like:

Today there’s a bunch of important news on the calendar for GBP.

Let’s see what will happen.

Weekend update:

My EUR/CAD sell stop on the Weekly did not get triggered, so i will cancel the pending order once the market opens on Sunday evening.

But, my GBP/JPY short is 121 Pips in profits

Even though it looks grandious, it’s only 0.44% gain on my account so far, since it’s 1.5% risk from my account, with 400+ pip stop loss.
But regardless, on Sunday evening i will close 50% of the position and trail my stop loss 121 pips to reduce the risk as much as possible.

Here is the chart:

I’ve finished my weekend market analysis, and found one pair i could set up a pending sell stop order for Sunday evening (Monday)

NZD/USD - D

A major swing to the downside has finished, and on friday price hopefully finished the retracement segment. The pink line that you are seeing on the chart is a monthly level of S/R.

But i am not trading a reaction of the monthly chart, i am hopefully looking to trade a bounce from A Fibonacci area (between the 50% and 61.8%). Friday’s candle is one of the formations i trade in this strategy. We have a hesitation bar, or a sandwich bar. Even though it’s not the prettiest looking one, it is respecting the Fibbo levels.
So my plan of action is to place a sell stop order 5 pips bellow the lowest point of that bar, and the stop loss 5 pips above the highest point of the bar. So if price ticks bellow, i will be filled in, which also signifies that price is bouncing. But if price takes out the highest point of that bar, than i will cancel the order.

Pros: The sandwich bar is to the pip precise touching the Fibbo level of 61.8%, and the more precise the level, the better the signal.

Cons:

  1. The hesitation bar is not considered a high quality signal, since it does not indicate market rejection, but market confusion. And as an added problem is the crazy volume we’ve been seeing lately, which could easily trigger my position, and then hit my stop loss.

  2. Also i am not liking the heavy rejection we got on the Monthly time frame. Take a look at the chart

Course of action:I still haven’t made my final decision, but if a do enter it will be with a smaller lot size because of the added risk. Opening smaller positions is something i am doing because of the worldwide outbreak and the massive volume we are seeing in the forex markets.

What do you guys think?

I enjoyed reading your trading journal. It inspired me to open one of my own. Thanks and keep posting.

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Both my trades are currently in profit, here are the details.

GBP/JPY - W

Profit in Pips: 110 (as of this moment)

This is no surprise here given that the pinbar was massive, so it’s gonna take at least one more Weekly candle to secure some profits. Because 110 pips, with such a massive Stop Loss is nothing to write home about.
But it’s good that my bias was correct, and i am in the green. On friday i will have a clearer picture of what to do.


NZD/USD

Profits in Pips : 28

I’ve written about this potential setup here

It was based (and still is) of the Fibonacci level of 61.8%
The first candle i got was a massive hesitation candle which did not get triggered, and this was on Friday. So Monday’s candle did not trigger the setup, but it gave us a smaller hesitation candle (sandwich bar) which was inside the previous candle, basically Monday’s candle totally engulfed Tuesdays candle.
This is the first time in my trading career that i am trading g this type of a setup. I have two formations in one, and both of them are part of the lower quality setups from the Part Time trading strategy that i trade.

But as you can see, today this trade already got triggered. Of-course i will have to wait until the end of the day to make a decision of what i am going to do with this trade and how i am going to manage it.

For me, this is important from a psychological perspective, because after the 2 losses i had a while back, i kinda backed away for 2 weeks or so, because i was starting to get emotional.

Nice. I can see from your charts that you trade pure price action. Am I correct?

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Yap, just price action, but i try not to forget the calendar, even though, it’s so hectic right now, there is no point in looking at anything fundamental.

Can you share your strategies? Am searching for strategies. I just dumped indicators in order to go pure price action. I have been reading extensively on price action. Right now am looking for good strategies in price action. I would like the links.

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It’s all in this journal.
I am very transparent, i use Hector De Ville’s strategies, mainly the Part Time trading strategy and the 3SMA strategy, you can Google them.

I Googled and saw that he’s offering his courses for $129. I am usually wary of self-styled gurus in forex. They usually recycle what’s available for free on the internet. I thought your strategy could be found here on a thread on babypips.

Once again, i trade his strategy, it’s not mine to teach this, cause it’s illegal.

OK. Thanks. Waiting for your next journal post.

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that’s a detailed analysis :slight_smile:thanks

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Many of these courses can be found for free in the public domain.

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