Good. Now that you know the problem, pattern recognition, you need to take the next step which is pattern interruption. Stop the pattern of lazy behavior by seeing it as an enemy and that if it continues it will cost you. The final step is pattern substitution. Replace the lazy behavior with some behavior that is more meaningful and positive. Think about what you would use to replace the lazy behavior. You decide. Then repeat the three step process every time the behaviour you dislike appears. Repetition puts you on the track to eliminating the lazy behavior.
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What I respect about you is that you don’t give up on difficulties. It’s a good trait in both life and trading. You take trading seriously enough, you try to pick up strategies, you read a lot about trading and so on - I can see that you care and it is more than just a hobby for you. It’s very admirable, I wish there was more people like that. I hope that you’ll succeed and you’ll get what you want. I wish you good luck!
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Wow, thank you, very kind words!!
I have about 20 pairs on my watchlist for this week.
But, i have one pending order i am going to setup on the EUR/NZD.
The last 2 candles indicate 2 formations in one, railway tracks and outside bar. This looks like heavy market rejections from that significant swing point bellow (blue line) on the weekly time frame,
I checked other indicators and they also confirm my bias, even though my strategy does not need indicators.
Entry will be 5 pips above the highest point of the last candle, and stop loss will be 5 pips above the 50% mark of the last green candle since it’s a massive 600+ pips candle.
I will update if the position get’s triggered and how it went.
EUR/NZD is still not triggered, and maybe it won’t i don’t care, that’s what limit orders are for, it’s a weekly setup so i’ll have to wait.
But scanning through the charts now, i had about 4 different setups i could take this evening, and i decided to go for AUD/USD Daily chart.
Fake breakout from the upper resistance from this channel. I know channels are not supposed to be traded, but it seems there is enough room for a positive win to loss ratio. So let’s see if i get’s triggered. I am risking 3% on this setup.
Overdue Update | NZD/JPY Detailed Technical Analysis | 1 Active Trade(you can still catch this trade)*
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Overdue Update - It’s been 2+ months since my last entry. I’ve had a career update.
+ price action has been terrible this summer…
Even though I attempted to keep my daily analysis, I didn’t since the career update needed my full time attention until I got a hold of things a little bit. Because of this, I started using a signals service on my live account, which is being provided by my digital mentor, the persons strategies which I am actually implementing, and it sort of worked out for the best.
Regardless of that, I will continue demo trading the first demo account i have associated with this journal.
My only focus now will be the Monthly and Weekly candle closes,since the daily’s require me to sit down every day and analyze, no matter how short it is. With the M & W i can actually do a more detailed analysis of the setup, since there are fewer, and in theory it should yield better results. -
NZD/JPY Detailed Technical Analysis
There will be lots of screenshots for this.
Here is how the chart looks on the M Time Frame, and the first thing I am seeing is this:
Bearish trend-line that’s been active since 2014, and is now being retested. Zoomed in you can see a pinbar - the high of this pinbar is 2 pips shorter than last month’s rejection. Lower low, plus a 2 month rejection of the same level.
If we zoom out, it’s obvious that price was in a triangle formation, which it kind of broke out from, and now it has retraced, and retesting those breakout levels - which is more of an area/zone, than a specific level.
By Zooming in the W, a week ago prise also made a pinbar (which is a current live trade on my real account.) And this pinbar is located on a significant infliction point for the weekly time frame.
I entered aggressively, clicking sell when this month’s candle opened. My Stop Loss is located 5 pips above the pinbar.
Entry: 70.166
Stop Loss: 70.715
Risk: 155 pips (5%)
Target: 66.670 (349 Pips) - Open Target Policy
This could be hit in 2 weeks, or in 5 months, you can never now. But since this is a high quality setup on the highest time frame in MT4, and i have a confirmation on the Weekly as well, the risk is 5%.
Let’s see how this turns out.
Any thoughts?
I set up a pending Stop Sell order on GBP/USD Weekly time frame
Entry: 1.29752
Stop Loss: 1.31901
Risk : 2% (215 pips)
Low quality setup since it’s a hesitation bar. Ideally it would have been a rejection formation. If it breaks about previous weeks high, i’ll cancel the setup, if it breaks bellow last weeks low, i’ll be triggered in the trade.
It still hasn’t been activated, it’s a long term trade, so let’s see.
Price is stalling on NZD/JPY and GBP/USD still hasn’t been activated.
Price action is terrible
Update
NZD/JPY - M
Currently down 91 pips
Price went in to profits +142 pips, and then retraced heavily.
On Monday 31, this monthly candle closes, so i’ll have to leave this candle for September to see weather the planned push will happen to the downside.
Currently, -37 pips in the red
EUR/CHF - W
Got triggered, and immediately went in to retracement mode. The good thing is, there are a lot of wicks towards the upside, so bearish pressure is strong. Let’s see weather we get our push the following week.
NZD/CHF - W 3SMA
Againm not what i was hoping for, but this trade is gonna take a loooong time to develop, so for now we can just wait.
Currently -162 pips in the red
I have 3 trades that involve the NZD and CHF twice.
I am not following my own trading rules, which is just stupid…I need to work on my discipline.
NZD/JPY on Monthly was a loss, -5%
Basically price rallied up more than 260 pips in 5 days.
The screenshot from the daily shows this very clearly.
Not sure what happened or why, but i haven’t seen this kind of momentum in months, this is crazy.
Not gonna get discouraged, i’ll just keep trading, i still have 2 active trades, hopefully, i will be able to make up for this loss.
p.s: the month end tonight, i don’t think there will be any trading opportunities, but i will scan through the markets now.
Hello traders, it’s been almost 2 months since my last update,
Here’s whats up.
In October i reactivated an old demo account with 3000 USD demo cash, and decided to try all over again. No signal service no improvisation. If i can be profitable in 6 months, i’ll try again with real cash.
It’s the end of month one, and things are looking good. I’ve had 2 wins, 1 loss, and open positions.
I am not putting the details of entry and sl cause i am lazy, but if someone wants to I can share them
- GBP/NZD - D, Short (Loss)
Here is the screenshot, i thought this pinbar was valid because of fibbo, long story short i was wrong. -3%
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AUD/CHF - D, Short (Win)
BCC (Breakout Congestion Continuation)
I won 3.6% on this trade, or around 63 pips in total, because i exited in 2 sequences of 50% This was a good trade.
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USD/JPY - D, Short (Win)
This was the most profitable so far, i got more than 4% and closed it all at once. +60 pips, and i was real happy as you can imagine.
Currently i have 2 monthly setups active, i might make an update next week when the month ends on those 2.
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I ended October with a 2.63% gain on my account.
I had 3 small wins, and profit takings and one loss of 3%.
One position still remains open since it was a monthly setup GBP/AUD.
I’m pretty happy with how things turned out, since I am trying out a more disciplined approach now. If I can maintain this momentum of positive gain, i will go live 5 months from now.
The past week i decided not to trade due to the U.S elections, and now that the dust has settled I am ready for a new trading month.
Here is what is on watchlist for the upcoming days and weeks.
- NZD/JPY - D, Short
- NZD/USD - D, Short
- EUR/CHF - D, Short
- AUD/NZD - D , Short
- NZD/CAD - D, Shot
- NZD/ CHF - D, Short
As you can see, the NZD is looking to crash down this week.
There are too many screenshots to put on here. So once i have selected my setup i will update,
Yesterday i opened my first position for the month, and i just closed it 5 minutes ago.
I had 3 positions lined up and decided to open 1, EUR/GBP -D, Long
Here is the chart
As you can see that support levels was tested previously, so when the pinbar showed up i decided to enter conservatively by setting a buy stop order 5 pips above the high of the pinbar and the stop loss 5 pips bellow the low of the pinbar, here are the details.
Entry: 0.89220
Stop Loss: 0.88550
Risk: 67 pips
Risk in percentage: 3%
Risk in $: $90
It immediately got activated today, and the candle is still ticking, but i believe the steam for today has run out, since the ATR was 82 pips, and today it went 101 pips, so i would have been overshooting my luck if i left it open.
Closed at: 089994
Profit: 89 pips
Profit in percentage: 3.5%
Profit in $: 110.99
Current win loss status:
Wins: 4 (one of them is still active, i closed it partially)
Losses: 1
So my sucess rate is pretty high, but my risk to reward ratio in every trade is not where i want ti to be.
Risking 3% to get 3.5% is not where i want to be, my ideal is a minimum of 1:1.5, but with the current market volume, i don’t want to overstretch my luck. I am playing conservative setups with a high probability rate. So for now i am willing to take smaller wins in order to keep a higher winning percentage
With this win, my total account has grown 6.3% in 6 weeks, and i’m pretty happy with that.
This pair might give me another trading opportunity next week, because on the weekly time frame price is forming a pinbar as well. I was hesitant wether to leave this one open, but i decided to play it safe, since trading is more about managing risk than anything else.
But, if it closes as a good as it looks now, i will definitely consider entering this investment.
Here is the weekly chart:
As you can see, the level is completely the same just from a weekly perspective. This tells me that pressure is heavy at this junction.
But because this pinbar is too big, i might play my Stop Loss conservatively. We will see, too early to make a decisions.
But what bothers me, and even bothered for today’s position is the fact that i am already involved in a long term trade, the GBP/AUD, which means that i am selling the GBP on one trade and buying on the other one.
I am not sure how to approach that. Either trade a smaller lot size, or…i don’t know, if you guys have any ideas on how to manage these situations i am open to suggestions.
Anyways, it’s funny how i managed to be successful 6 weeks in a row after dropping everything and just sticking to the basics of what i know. But the lessons i have are all connected to experience, so there is no short cut to getting anything in forex.
Good luck to everyone and stay safe!
There haven’t been any setups that i’d like the past week, and this week so far as well.
The strategy that I am using, if done correctly, can yield 3/4 HQ trades a months, and that’s it. So far i have 2 open positions, one from the monthly time frame, and one from the weekly, both of them are in the red right now. I don’t plan on closing them or anything like that, they will either shot in to profits, or hit my SL, we will see.
For today, there is a really nice pinbar forming on the EUR/CHF, but i a already involved in the EUR/CAD long, so entering this would mean i am long and short on the EUR, which is cazy, and also doubling my risk, which is even crazier. No more of that B.S for me.
But, here is the setup, it is a nice pinbar 
and the level where it’s at is also nicer
I also have another setup that i put in my notepad, not to trade, but just to see what happened to it tomorrow. It’s a BCC formation for AUD/CHF. It’s really not that beautiful to look at. But the level where it’s happening is an important one, and also the breakout bar was mildly interesting in order to consider if you want to trade.
Very ugly looking hesitation bar…on top of that it’s a contradicting signal for the CHF compared to the one from above. Same situation as the EUR, ona i as a buy the other a sell.
I can clearly see how avoiding these stupid setups saves you money in the long term.
Yes, i haven’t opened a position almost 10 days. But is that really a good enough reason to risk capital now?
Here is the chart:
Note to every trader…don’t trade just for the sake of it!
Remember this EUR/CHF setup from yesterday, that I did not take because I am involved with the EUR already?
Let me refresh your memory.
Well it went it’s profitable, an entire day in red, this would have been a decent trade just for today. Here is how the chart looks like now - bare in mind the day is not over, but I am not expecting any major movements on this pair until the end of the day.
This setup is so good, it’s even forming a pinbar on the weekly time frame, and guess what, we do have a level on the weekly as well. So if anyone wants a free signal, there is money to be made here definitely
Here is the potential weekly setup.
Here is the same chart a bit zoomed in. The above version was to show you that the level that we are hitting is very significant and it has been for a while now.
It’s a really nice setup, but i can’t enter because of money management policy.
This really got me thinking on long term setups based on the monthly and weekly chart, they really slow your trading down. I am still not sure weather that’s a good or a bad thing right now?
I guess only time will tell…
There is no position for tomorrow.
I even scanned thorugh my trending strategy, the markets are dying out slowly as the end of the year is approacing.
Today is Monday, November 30-th 2020, end of the month, and i have found a potential trading opportunity.
Here are the details.
CHF/JPY - D, Short
Beautiful Pinbar as part of a “Fake Breakout” formation inside of a wide triangle. Even though I completely understand that trading inside of a congestion area is not the smartest move, but as you can visually see there is plenty of room to make profits until the lower point of this setup.
I decided to put my SL at the 50% (+ 5 pips above) mark of the entire candle, instead of 5 pips above the high of the pinbar. That is because it’s a good looking pinbar, and the rejection is obvious, no hesitation or anything, the bears clearly are in control of this market. What I am trying to say is, if I get filled in, and then price returns above my SL, I wouldn’t wanna be in that trade anyway, since obviously there are other factors at play. But from a technical perspective, this is pure gold right here.
Also, I noticed a few other short opportunities that involve the YEN going up, so I don’t think this is a fluke.
I had 7 different trading opportunities lined up for this evening, but this one is by far the best one.
But the most important reason why I couldn’t trade the others is my involvement in the long term setups. Now, i can not say anything about the monthly setups, but the Weekly trade i have on the EUR/CAD is stagnating for a third week now, standing at a small loss. In my previous posts i did mention that out of all the trading rules that I learned, the one where it states to not stay in hesitant markets for long, because it’s a terrible condition to be in, is the one that I did not understand fully. My thoughts were…OK but why? Why wouldn’t i let the trade run either to profits or to a loss?
Well, this is why. Because on the longer time frames it prevents you from opening other valid setups. So from now on, if after the second candle price does not shoot up in my direction,I will close it down, no questions asked.
Anyway, this was a rant, feel free to copy this trade, but that’s it from me.
p.s: ou yea, i’m entering with a 3% risk as usual, and will try to carry it all the way to the support zone at 113.80, let’s see what happens.
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CHF/JPY got activated even before the days candle closed, about 10-15 min ago.
So far so good, it seems momentum is strong on this one. It might have something to do with Yen traders buying the pair since the Tokyo session is beginning.
Whatever it is, I am 6/7 pips in to profits.
I have also been maintaining a trading journal since the beginning of my trading career. I keep records of all my trades there.
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