Pietro's GBPJPY Daily candle Breakout strategy Journal

First of all, I got this idea from pipwoof post: 301 Moved Permanently

[B]Pietro’s GBPJPY Daily candle Breakout strategy Journal.


  • Daily Chart

  • Buy 3 pips above last day’s High + spread

  • Sell 3 pips below last day’s Low

  • Take profit = 70 pips - spread

  • Stop loss = 30 pips + spread (5% risk per order, maximum daily loss 10%)

Leave both orders run until they hit TP or SL. If one or both orders are not triggered that day, just cancel the orders a few minutes before the daily candle closes and place new orders next day (daily candle closes at 5pm NY time). Do not close the other order when one gets triggered.

I am backtesting this strategy manually on a 30 min timeframe respecting the 3 pips buffer (some trades are tight)(no spreads to make the maths easy) at 70 pips TP and 30 pips SL.

So far these are the results:

	pips	        % capital gain/loss

December +230 + 21%

November +480 + 69%

October -60 - 17%

September +70 - 11%

August +440 + 48%

July +560 + 91%

June +520 + 90%

May +260 + 21%

April +290 + 35%

March -360 - 39%

February +150 + 9%

January +590 + 111%

2016 totals [B]3170 pips + 1850%[/B]

Now, I know this is unrealistic and I am sure things will not go as well as the back test, but let’s say if had $10000 on a live account and started trading last January, risking 5% per trade, today I would have around $185,000.00

So far the most consecutive losses is 8 losses (8 consecutive losses would mean a loss of around 24% of your account capital from the moment you have the first loss). The most consecutive wins are 5. 1 win alone means a 10% capital gain, now think about that, let’s say I have 3 consecutive wins (which happens often). $1000 + 10% + 10% + 10% = $1330, 33% capital gain from the moment you have your first win.
The winning average varies from 30% and 60% which is not a lot but I am confident that the risk/reward pays off in the end of the day.

I will test this strategy for the next few months and finally if everything goes well, trade live.

I will do the best I can to update this journal daily and do not miss out any trades. I work full time as a painter and have limited time to work with Forex.

Daily candles closes at 7am here in Australia so I place or cancel all my orders as soon as I wake up. Most orders will be triggered during the London (6pm here), which is great for me as I am back from work so I can watch it closely to develop a better understanding of how GBPJPY flows.

Feel free to leave comments, suggestions or ask any questions.

Nice post, simple method, straightforward rules. Very objective.

I am (by nature maybe) always drawn to these sorts of strategies. I’ve currently suspended my forex trades while I focus resources on a similar approach with stocks but I could certainly run some small trades as a forward-test of this method on GBP/JPY.

Why did you choose this particular pair though?

HI tommor thanks for the comment. Glad to see that someone thinks likewise. The reason I chose this pair is simply because it is one of the pairs pipwoof suggests on his post. Also because I am looking for a pair where I can constanstly trade with a good risk:reward and GBPJPY looks like it does the job well. I am sure that this strategy would work on other pairs, it is just a question of finding out how many pips SL and TP would be to have a fair winning rate. I will run more tests with other pairs when I have the chance but for now, I will only trade guppy.

Well that’s fair enough.

Even for a simple strategy like this the market throws up enough complications to demand a clear mindset going in. Right now this pair shows Friday as an inside day, within Thursday’s range. Would you still use Friday’s H and L as reference points? Or maybe Thursday’s.
What if tomorrow is inside Friday’s range? (quite likely as its a US holiday)

I believe that the most sensible choice would be using Thursdays range, however, on my back test I have always used the last days high and low, so I will stick with the strategy I back tested for now.

However, I will back test inside candle breakouts using the previous candle High and Low when I have the chance and post the results here.

Also I am not 100% sure if I will be able to place trades tomorrow as I have to leave to work before the market opens. But I will still update this Journal even if it was a non-trading day.

I could not place my orders this morning because I had to go to work before the market oppened. I will still place the orders when I get home if the price is still ranging between Fridays or Thursdays high and low.

So, I’m home now. Today was a no-trading day.

Very often I will not trade on Mondays because of the price bumps on my chart. I will however start to place my Monday orders on Friday before the market closes.


Buy order triggered @ 138.248, SL hit at 137.882 (36 pips).

The market did move in my favour but the candle that triggered the order had a long upper shadow meaning that when it came back down it hit my SL. The market went up over 200 pips after that.
Notes: SL should be 33 pips, not 36. I will adjust that for buy orders.

I am currently back testing the exact same strategy on the 5min chart to get a better result accuracy. Also if anyone is interested in making an EA based on this system, you are more than welcome.

I still have 2 orders open for today: Buy @ 140.197 and Sell @ 137.032. I don’t think they will trigger but I will update here tomorrow.


[B]Positions not triggered.[/B]

New positions for the 19/01:

Buy @ 140.054
Sell @ 139.109


Buy order triggered at 140.054, 67 pips profit (+ 10%)

New positions for the 20/01

Buy @ 142.233
Sell @ 140.338


No positions triggered

New positions for the 23/01

Buy @ 142.132
Sell @ 141.136


Sell position triggered @ 141.136, lost 35 pips

New positions for the 24/01

Buy @ 142.147
Sell @ 140.731


Buy position triggered, went up 65 pips but came down to 13 now and is still running. I never close positions or change SL/TPs.
Update: SL hit (-33 pips)

Buy order triggered @ 142.572, SL hit short after (-33 pips)


Buy order triggered. TP target hit :slight_smile:


Buy order triggered. SL hit :frowning:

Hey everyone, I am not sure if there is anyone following this thread… anyway, I am also testing out another strategy, pretty much the same as this one but the SL is 50 and TP is 200 pips. Back tests of the whole 2016 were amazingly profitable. But I am still working on it to improve it even more.

1 Like

hi do you still trade strategy this