Trading is hard but this beautiful forum is to help each other and best way to do that is to go straight to practice - discuss trade setups and live trades.
In this thread I will post my goals, trade setups, actual trades and results.
I trade live account with currently $8K equity. I connected my account to myfxbook and here is the link to it Soyuz System by pipvision | Myfxbook. There you can see my live stats.
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I’ve been long watching this pair for a true breakout and finally the moment has come. On the chart you can see the breakthrough of the weekly trend line .
This move begs the question about false/true breakout nature and here is my thoughts:
Careful study of the pullback on the lower timeframes revealed that with high probability it’s not a fake breakout. One of the prominent signs is the absence of well-known “pin-bar” move that basically tells us that buyers are eager to jump in. Basically this happened during the previous touch of the support line and we all know that pattern validity increases as we zoom out into higher timeframes.
This is a medium-term trade with a fair 2:1 R/R ratio and tight stop loss.
This setup is perfect not because E/U direction is clear, but because it will be SUPER-EASY to realise that you are wrong and this mistake will be CHEAP.
E/U closed above 1.10 last Friday and frankly I was tempted to jump in after the breakdown and bet on momentum that will drive pair lower at least till 1.0950. There was some reasonable fundamental context for this trade (weekend close, December tariff uncertainty with Dollar acting a safe-heaven, etc.), but further price action revealed that I was wrong (Thanks God!) and I quickly closed the trade with small profit (Check my last trade http://bit.ly/pipvision) And then …BOOM! you know what has happened, many breakout traders were trapped and are now sitting with their shorts hoping for the pressure to resume.
On 4H timeframe you can notice that the support area were largely not violated in the three previous attempts. Current support area is nearly crucial level of 1.10 where long-term trends may be initiated so this trade can be easily converted from short-term to long-term if further price evolution favours that. You may argue that support holding is relatively simple observation but remember that many successful trades have simple setups supporting them. There is no reason to complicate if we can propose simple model that (yeah, Occam’s razor).
Now turn to the logic of the trade. We have busy economic calendar next week with NFP and looming December 15 tariffs (possible inflection point) which are expected to be gradually clarified by the US-Sino officials. Therefore, the probability that the EU will finally CHOOSE trend is rising. It’s good because we look for early entry points and we basically don’t care about the trend direction but care about its onset instead. Combining this with the fact that the support remained intact (3 times) there is a reason to expect that E/U will start trending higher. I will bet on this. But if it won’t be confirmed we will quickly realise our mistake and get out at SL during 4th, but this time TRUE breakout.
Update: EURUSD trade hit take profit . Live account: Soyuz System by pipvision | Myfxbook
Further price action left me unconvinced about further evolution of the spike. Stay tuned!
Clearly, China and US won’t make the deal. There was a lot of optimism priced in Gold (from me too!), based particularly on Trade Progress, which now starts to unwind.
Tariffs are due to take effect on December 15. A lot of tariffs.
Surprising gloomy US Manufacturing PMI – 4 straight month in the downtrend, weak employment, new orders, production sub-indexes.
Escalation over US Hong Kong and Xinjiang bill. Go and count how many times Chinese foreign Ministry used word “revenge” in their recent statements.
The BTCUSD has had a bearish momentum and now, it is hanging in an area with no any strong support level to stop this momentum.
The concept of range fill is built under the use of two things, first there has to be a support with consolidation that has hold for long, with our case the price range was at 4000.00 then the price departs far from it, with our case our case 13800.00 then fails to move further and shows the momentum of going back to its old support with consolidation.
As it can be seen the price is currently at 7260.70 level showing a good bearish momentum, this has been proven by the ema cross. Since the concept of this emas is that when 14 ema crosses ema 50 and stays below it is a proof for strong bearish momentum.
Trade Setup: 14ema cross 50ema from above
Sell entry should be at 7100.00
Stop loss, should be at 8500.00
Take profit should be 4000.00
Expect tomorrow boost after the release of healthy UK consumer inflation reading (for November). Very important data to fill the vacuum as elections is out of the way.
Don’t get into the trade if the signal is not validated!
On the chart above you can see two falling wedges in the bullish market which resulted in two strong breakouts above EMA 50. This points to strong bullish pressure on the 15M chart. Also we see that RSI approaches lower bound (30 points) around which it is expected to rebound as it happened in three previous cases (shown by blue shaded areas). Note that RSI reversals from lower bounds work better in during up-trending markets which we currently observe
Trade setup:
BUY GBPUSD.
Entry point 1 - 1.30845, Entry 2 - 1.30645
Take Profit 1.31450
Stop Loss 1.30420
So, we got December NFP on Friday and here are takeaways:
New Jobs – 145K vs. 165K expected. BIG MISS! Wage growth – 0.1% vs. 0.3 expected. BIG MISS! Unemployment: 3.5%, unchanged from November.
I managed to close my Gold position in small profit despite betting on the opposite NFP guess (ready my previous post). Subsequent price action indicated that the bullish spike had to be short-lived. There was also a hint from data about that but what was the key inference? With unemployment at record low of 3.5%, lower-than-expected new jobs count could be affected by WORKERS SHORTAGE, which is a sign of OVERHEATING rather than cooling. Counterintuitive, eh?
Yeah, we have to read the “fine print” and in the run up to 4 or 5 previous NFP reports I read many anecdotal stories that firms are struggling to hire. If you want even less evident point about that here it is: At this low unemployment rate, the candidates being hired were likely to be out of labor for a longer time => more time and costs involved for their training what acts as a constraint for hiring and wage growth.
While stagnant wage growth just strengthens the case (that we already know) that Fed won’t make policy shifts at least until the end of 2020. No change in expectations - little reaction from the assets side.
That’s why separate reports like December one with no confirmation from the unemployment figure may be discounted by the markets.
Today, Gold is down by 0.40% as the focus shifts to signing ceremony of the US-Sino trade deal. Expect further cooling and price searching for support test on generally calm and positive market sentiments.
Trade setup:
Sell XAUUSD at current price.
Price targets: $1540 and $1535.
Stop loss: $1558.50
. Live account: 
you can see two falling wedges in the bullish market which resulted in two strong breakouts above EMA 50. This points to strong bullish pressure on the 15M chart. Also we see that RSI approaches lower bound (30 points) around which it is expected to rebound as it happened in three previous cases (shown by blue shaded areas). Note that RSI reversals from lower bounds work better in during up-trending markets which we currently observe 
New Jobs – 145K vs. 165K expected. BIG MISS!
Wage growth – 0.1% vs. 0.3 expected. BIG MISS!
Unemployment: 3.5%, unchanged from November.
