GBPJPY does have some nice massive moves, but too massive for my stoploss risk I feel. :eek: Good idea wrtm to use it as a SMT with EURJPY instead, as EURJPY can give decent moves too with a lesser s/l risk. It was there in the back of my mind to do that, but that’s as far as it got
When it comes to the session one trades, these pairs makes more sense for the Asian/London, perhaps moreso than GPBUSD. However, apparently, GU is the work horse pair, but if it’s taking the day off, then maybe EJ will be a good fill-in.
Well with that drop in GU during the rest of the london, I would say that the range I was trading in was distribution after all. You could see where SM temporarily drove up price almost reaching R1, sucking in the buyers, shaking out weak existing sellers :(… then SM marked it down.
ICT if you’re around, maybe you can answer this. Lots of info that I’ve read out there about accmulation & distribution phases seems to say they happens over weeks…but does it happen fractally too? Like on a daily basis? Would you concur with my assessment in the previous paragraph?
Yeah I’d like to know more about that too. ICT hope you can comment about it.
For what I’ve read and seen in my little time of practice, I understand it like this:
Yes these phases last long time (days, weeks, you name it), and the fact that they have to do it little by little is what bring us the intraday (re)accumulation we see everyday. This happens because big players won’t position themselves in a single order.
Three weeks ago or so, in synch with the COT report, market flow, etc, smart money tool and VSA favoured by far short positions.
Now we’re having kind of mixed signals, maybe because we’re in a mid term correction (the daily bearish gartley Sweet Pip told me about) and until it ends we’ll probably see both (accumulation and distribution) happen along each other until the downtrend is resumed, or an uptrend confirmed.
Ok I deviate myself from the original topic, long story short, I do think it happens fractally and could be seen frequently on an intraday basis.
I NEED to stop being so firmly dedicated to specific support and resistance zones. If I weren’t dedicated to the idea of price reaching the 1.4775 area of the GU, I would’ve gone short when price rocketed downward around the 2:00am mark (instead of convincing myself that it was just a bounce, and that price really was going to test that level), and then I’d be up nearly 200 pips! (4 pivot levels!)
Either way, thanks to my first-week-of-live-trading jitters, I’ve got a list a mile long of things not to do. I certainly won’t make these mistakes again, and maybe I’ll even be able to make some profits next week!
As it relates to Accumulation & Distribution… You can find these event in all time frames. The phases of accumulation (be it shorts or longs) on the longer term charts will have the greatest influence. However, if you understand the current market dynamic (market flow, trend, momentum) hunting for smart money footprints becomes easier.
For example… If the daily and four hour suggests the market should trade higher… Looking for clues for Smart Money buying is ideal… Even if you see contrarian SMT signals as these may only signal a retracement before signaling a new SMT long confirmation.
In the lesser timeframes such as fifteen minutes and five minute charts… You will see a multitude of SMT activity which is a virtual candyland for daytraders. Just remember the long term will pay off better and on low risk to boot!
I just wanted to give a visual on what it is I’m seeing that I mentioned to wrtm about a bearish gartley on the GPBUSD daily chart.
The first pic is an overall 5 wave downtrend. You can see for each wave 1-5 (white), there is another 1-5 wave set & their 3 ABC corrective waves between them (yellow). Waves within waves. They way I see it, we ended the 5th wave, and now into it’s corrective ABC wave set, but it could also be a much bigger ABC too, where C will actually be the A…boggles the mind…lol.
The yellow circles is a potential area for the C correction to end before continuing down again. That is one scenario to keep in mind.
The second pic is zoomed in to show 2 possible price areas for the correction to end. The circles are where 2 fib sets converge …50% & 100% = 1.4880, but just above them is another very tight convergence price area too …61.8% & 127.2% = 1.5030
If & when price does get into these areas, then it will be interesting to see how the pivots and SMT & volume…lol…all line up. Who knows, it may have already ended with that large down bar on Friday. If nothing else, it’s just chart art
Update Profit target was hit, the trade is closed.
I had my first loser yesterday, the first in a long while, and I must confess it was all my fault. There were no clear signals and I didn’t wait for them to appear.
Just the other day I was telling Sweet Pip on the chat how badly I wanted to overleverage myself, giving the confidence and succes rate I have had with this approach. (I was thinking about risking 4% actually) I’m glad I didn’t because I knew sooner or later the loss would come. ANd it’s ok, it took my feet back down to earth.
Well today cable showed a classic atractive set up.
Entry at 1.4700
Trade is still open with stop loss at breakeven. I’m targeting a profit target of 1.4780. Two pivot points from my entry.
Stop loss was 1.4670.
Price already reached the first pivot but with no signs of exhaustion and actually made a clean cut so I didn’t close the trade. Hope the next pivot gets reached.
Sweetpip whats hapend I miss this thread, will you be coming back to it or is that it. What you brought to the table was very helpful with all your knowledge. And I dont mean to be rude but I bet you would make more pips if you tried more set ups like when you started the thread, even if it was just one a week. Pls come back have another bash:)
I’ve been distracted quite a bit being that it’s summer…away on holidays and more socializing activities, etc. I’ve mostly been trying out a couple of scalping strategies…the mad scalper for one and using an indicator I made to identify multiple time frame S&R lines from which to enter reversals from…actually it’s kinda nifty.
I’d been waiting for ICT to deliver up more details on the subtleties of his methods, but he must be busy too. So I had just put this thread on the back burner for awhile.
But now, I just started watching Chris Lori’s videos, who was ICT’s mentor, so hoping he will fill the gaps to give this another “bash”…lol.
Here’s an ebook I found on FF by Chris Lori about some psychological aspects of trading…using a lot of his World Cup bobsleding experience as analogies…lol. I hadn’t come across his name before on any forum until ICT mentioned him just a few months ago. Maybe because he’s Canadian?..IDK. Anyways, I’ll be reviewing his course videos, and you may hear more about him from here on…
Ok, getting back to it then, here’s EJ 15m chart. I’ve placed a pending short order at 108.00 which is 1)Yesterdays high, 2) R1, 3) a prior resistance price, and 4) a 00 figure…so that’s at least 4 events. My “flow” indicator shows up, so not expecting a big down move but could be decent. Stop is 30 pips and target is 60ish but negotiable depending on how long I can monitor it, and of course price action itself.
Yes! No Brainer Trades. BTW I like that EJ set up. Looks like a possible SMT is on its way with G/J. Let’s see how price reacts to this level. 4hr flow is down.
It’s funny how it just seems to happen that one comes across some reference material that seems to correspond to what one sees on the charts…lol. In this case, I’m just watching the candlestick section of the videos, and on the 15m t/f the candles have large rejection upper wicks…tweezer tops!…so I’m not sure price is even going to trigger the PDH price now.
I do use the ICT method its what I have found works best for me, mixed results so far but only due to lack of dicipline on my part, not the method.
Just wish he would hurry up and feed us some more material:) maybe I have lack of patience to:).
What a pleasant surprise Trade hadn’t triggered before going to bed, but it finally did a couple of hours ago. Woke up to find it had hit profit target of +60 pips…wasn’t really expecting that…but sweet! Nice way to end the week after really messing up on a few of my trades earlier this week.
Catchy little verse akin to gambling…:D. But that actually has a direct relationship to support & resistance levels and whether or not they will hold when we try to fade them…which is what this method is all about (as in it’s not about breakouts :p)
Thanks again wrtm for bringing up the NBT reference. They are another nice complimental resource to go to.
Now I have to figure out a way to grade the multi-timeframe S&R lines my indicator finds as per that article. At present they are colored to represent the timeframe taken from, so perhaps I could use line thickness to denote strength…how hard can that be :rolleyes:
