Now that I am trading with a little ICT infleunce Ill have to keep tabs on this thread, I’m guaranteed to learn some nice little tidbits.
I really need to get a handle on how you guys use smt to confirm your trades. I haven’t even put that on my charts yet.
Last night it seemed there were several options to trade, but too many conflicting signals. A few pairs I was watching blew past their respective PDH’s & L’s and then I didn’t trust the one that did. But how do ya know eh! So I didn’t trade at all.
Well tonight, I saw AUDUSD heading up to a nice round number… .9000, which was a PDH (blue), near R1 (red)… my new pivots and PDH/L won’t recalc for another hour. Then a nice butterfly (or crab) pattern manifested so I put in a pending at .8995 which I did in case it didn’t quite reach .9000, but in hindsight now that it more than triggered the order, may not be such a good strategy.
Also looking at the flows which are up on almost everytime frame, again I’m hoping for a decent resistance bounce but thinking to limit it to 1:1…30 pips both ways.
Well…I was close…drop a 0 and I got 3 pips…lol :rolleyes:
Seems it works better when I go to bed and leave it alone.
I had a trailing stop for 13 pips which put me locked in at +5 pips at one point. Then when I saw it heading back to my entry, I moved the stop so I wouldn’t get stopped out too soon, but didn’t want to lose anything either …however perhaps I should have put it back to -30.
Now I have to decide whether to enter again or not…I would like to but it’s only 55 mins until a high impact news release…hmmmm.
Nothing panned out for me last night. AUDUSD continued to go up so good thing I didn’t re-enter. I tried a GBPUSD trade too, but 2nd guessed myself and exited for a small loss only to see it would have worked out…of course…lol. Either way, pretty much break even for the day.
So taking a little trip outside the gameplan temporarily, I’m just testing out Chris Lori’s section of the video’s on support & resistance. Here I’ve got USDCAD which is coming up to a prior support area at 1.0471. It’s also the monthly pivot. So I put a pending buy there. The ADR (average daily range) has been exceeded and there was quite a (parabolic) drop in price so a bounce looks very much due.
However, it does have a couple of other areas of support to get thru first but I’m taking the more obvious one…
After 8 hours of price languishing around in a tight range just above my entry, I removed the pending order. 
As I browse around the net on forex trading, today I found an interesting article on false breakouts…Capitalize On False Breakouts In The Danger Zone - Yahoo! Finance
Here some exerpts I like that pertain to the “predators” (smart money)
[I]There are those that want the breakout to occur and are making transactions in that direction. There are those expecting the range to continue and are “fading the breakout.” [U]There are also the “predators” who may trigger the breakout only to drive the price back into the range.[/U] Finally, there are those who are waiting for the momentum to wane and then aggressively take the trade back the other direction.
All experienced traders have seen it. A stock (or any instrument) has been within a defined trading range for some time and appears to have found its comfort zone. However, this balance breaks suddenly and the stock begins to move aggressively higher out of the range. The movement is sharp, attracting the attention of other traders and they pile in long for the big “breakout” trade. The longs are happy for a few minutes, but then a trading horror story is realized as prices plummet back into the trading range and the selling continues at a pace far more aggressive than the buying. The trader feels taken; [U]caught by a whipsaw at an opportune level for the predators.[/U] Still, traders need to see this as an opportunity and not a detriment. In other words, [U]each of us will need to be a predator from time to time, and capitalize on the market mistakes of others[/U].
[B][U]Becoming a Predator[/U][/B]
Traders need to show patience to capitalize on the exuberance of other traders. Also, this strategy may mean missing the chance to get into some legitimate breakouts early - waiting until we are sure that a profitable trade can be executed. If it is a true breakout, it will move in the upward direction for some time. Therefore, we have set levels marked in the securities we follow, and likely have some sort of “alert” to notify us when a level is surpassed. When the security moves through an old high we quickly check two metrics:
[ol]
[li][B]Volume:[/B] Increased volume on a breakout increases its odds of success, especially on upside breakouts. Light volume on a breakout means it is more likely to fail. However, decreasing volume on a downside breakout doesn’t necessarily increase the likelihood a breakout will fail.
[/li]
[li][B]Divergence:[/B] A relative strength indicator (RSI) or some other oscillator can be used to signal that a reversal is probable. If RSI is failing to make new highs as the price continues to rally, we have confirmation that this breakout has a good chance of escalating aggressively in the near future.
[/li][/ol]
We wait for our trade and, if the other above indicators are working in our favor, we will likely see the trade soon. If not, we wait for another opportunity.
[B]Bottom Line[/B]
False breakouts occur all the time. We can be on the wrong side of them or the profitable side of them. When a security enters the danger zone, watch for signs of weakness. When they appear, the strategy is simple: enter in the opposite direction of the breakout when prices move back through the breakout price, set a stop at the extreme and take profits at multiples of risk. You can also choose to use other indicators to help in our trading decisions, but you should only use the strategy on patterns and not while strong trends are in place. [/I]
Here’s a quick little scalp I took on the AUDUSD today. Price was hitting the PDH again (upper yellow circle), so it would seem a rather important level. There was a divergence with the CCI indicator and volume wasn’t very high… not as high as last time it bounced off it, so odds were it would bounce this time too, and it did.
Shorted at .9114, s/l 16 pips, target +10 pips (lower yellow circle) 
Awww…too bad I wasn’t around when price reached that PDH again afterwards!..arrrgh…lol
Hmmm…it would seem that I forgot I had a pending order hanging that got triggered and resulted in a 20 pip loss…dang…must remember to check that 
Nice and clear set up on cable tonight at the end of a week with mixed signals and no defined commitment to either side. Only two trades this week, one winner and this one currently at break even.
Confluence of factors:
Entry at 1.5445. This trade could mark the daily high, so I’m targeting 100 pips. Currently at +50
Thanks Wrtm a good set up, it is a beautiful day here so went out to do other things as it was nfp day, thought nothing much would happen and missed it. But good to see the set ups are still there because I havent seen much either this week.
Good information from forexrazor to take into consideration for next week to put some extra attention on short positions.
[I]Analysis: Despite only a modest increase in the OI, there was a decisive shift by the specs to the short side of the pound. The large spec was already short and expanded that position by decreasing longs and adding shorts. The small specs flipped, aggressively, from long to short. Neither spec group is an unbalanced short, so there may be more selling pending.[/I]
Well plenty of confluences in Gbp/usd for the session. Let’s see if one of these gives us a nice set up (SMT, volume, candle pattern).
I concur with all that…lol…but which one?! My flow indicator shows H4 as down, but H1 as up. I’m starting to think that too many converging events are as good as none 
I know!, lol, but in my case I wait for confirmation from all of my tools, so even though the current level 1.5393 showed a wick, there’s no smt present, so I’m going to pass on this one and wait for a clearer set up, with candle close below the level.
Market flow is really important, but not always the signals tend to favor this. Still waiting for the so awaited good set up 
Hey SweetPip, I was wondering if you are taking a look at some other pairs, and I was wondering also if you visit the ICT chat room from time to time.
To me it’s difficult since London session happens to be in the middle of the night for me. So it has become an even more lonely activity. But just the other day, in the ICT chat room, along with Aarnog and some other guys we had to opportunity to make a live trade on the cable. It was fun and it’s worth having a team to trade with. So it’d be nice to find you there.
On another subject, september arrived and with it the great opportunities. I’m still trading only GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, and EUR/JPY, but that’s more than enough for me for now. It takes time to get my templates ready and I have to do it at midnight when my eyes are closing. But all of this is worth the effort, a lot, and with the smart money tool, you can’t go wrong on your set ups. I just love the European session and the ICT concepts.
Anyway hope Cable chooses to get out of its range soon, so we can catch a nice trend.
TTYL 
Hi wrtm …what does wrtm stand for btw?
Is ICT’s chatroom back on?..I checked there a few times…even right now…and I don’t see how to access it…
I’ve been watching the EU, GU, EJ, UC & AU.
Also, due to his inactivity, I’ve adopted another method in the meantime for scalping. Basically it’s Petefader’s Mad scalper method, but I’ve put my own twist on it. When I stick to my rules, it works pretty well and I even started making some headway in my demo account until I started testing out a couple of other methods and didn’t change the demo account. :rolleyes:
I too should switch my sleeping pattern to catch more of the later Euro session…5am PST…lol…and get to bed much earlier…I’ve said that before…lol.
Another volume type method has recently caught my eye…market profiles… I just downloaded a 6 part pdf course on it, but first I need to finish watching Chris Lori’s videos. :rolleyes:
Actually I probably won’t be able to focus much over the next 2 weeks as my hubbys’ mother passed away and we had her memorial service on the weekend, and this coming weekend we’re taking her ashes on our boat to her final resting place. Then the week after that, the family is taking a cruise ship to Mexico, and I have things to plan, arrange and organize for that. So hopefully October will be able to get back into it.
Until then tho, I should be able to find some time to chat somewhere, somehow…even if it’s here on BP’s chat. Maybe it would help if you got a mt4 demo account and have the indicators calculate your template for you, and then you could just copy it onto your platform…just a thought to make life a bit easier.
It’s part of a keycode to open a car I used to have :rolleyes:
Yes, it’s there, probably it’s a browser related problem.
I’ve been watching the EU, GU, EJ, UC & AU.
What other instrument you use with UC for SMT purposes?
Also, due to his inactivity, I’ve adopted another method in the meantime for scalping. Basically it’s Petefader’s Mad scalper method, but I’ve put my own twist on it. When I stick to my rules, it works pretty well and I even started making some headway in my demo account until I started testing out a couple of other methods and didn’t change the demo account.
Yeah! I checked your mt4pips account a few weeks back and it was at an impressive 20 something %. Nice!.
I also use volume in my trading along with ICT concepts and this was what brought me to the long waited “ah, ha” moment. I’ve finally get to a comfort zone in the way I trade, which feels great. You always hear that support/resistance is the way to go but you don’t quite get how. Well not an expert here but understanding how things work makes things way easier! lol.
Another volume type method has recently caught my eye…market profiles… I just downloaded a 6 part pdf course on it, but first I need to finish watching Chris Lori’s videos.
Me too! I’m halfway there, but I haven’t been able to keep on watching them. I want to attend one of his seminars, but he doesn’t seem to have any scheduled in the region any time soon.
Actually I probably won’t be able to focus much over the next 2 weeks as my hubbys’ mother passed away and we had her memorial service on the weekend, and this coming weekend we’re taking her ashes on our boat to her final resting place. Then the week after that, the family is taking a cruise ship to Mexico, and I have things to plan, arrange and organize for that. So hopefully October will be able to get back into it.
Hope your family is ok, such is life, we have to move on and keep on living.
BTW send my regards to my mexican fellas
Maybe it would help if you got a mt4 demo account and have the indicators calculate your template for you, and then you could just copy it onto your platform…just a thought to make life a bit easier.
I’m trying to automate my templates in Dealbook, and actually I already have a pivot indicator, and I’m still trying it, to see if it works properly, takes the hardest part of the work away from me, but it doesn’t work for the monday/weekly pivots :D. It looks liket it works ok from tuesday to friday though, if that’s the case my nights will last longer.
Anyway let’s see if something pops up tonight. I’ll try to be on the ICT chat room or on BP’s chat if something happens
A trade on its course tonight. 
Market flow bearish.
Previous area of support resistance.
SMT divergence
Previous week’s high.
Weekly MR1 pivot.
Soon to move sl to brake even.
I’m still deciding where to set a take profit point. Previous’ day low looks like an important area of support, so if price gets there and I’m not stopped out at break even before, I could consider closing the trade there depending on price action.
Important zone of support/resistance.
Smart money tool showing distribution.
Five minutes template showing VSA and candle close below resistance levels.
Good job. Hey…I’m over on ICT’s chat…why aren’t you there?!..
Here’s what looks like a very good short entry area on the eurjpy…lots of resistance with R1, PDH, a bearish butterfly, price ending in 00, and daily average range (126) has been met. The flow is a bit mixed but the longer term says down.
The resistance entry zone consists of 107.87 to 108.00. I got in at 107.92 with a stop of 30 pips and a trailing stop of (10) for now…let’s see…
Stopped out for -30. Oh well…that’s what can happen. In hindsight now perhaps I didn’t give the higher volume enough importance that could interfere with a nice bounce off that resistance. Price is just hanging around resistance now although it seems to be forming a rising wedge which is also bearish…hmmmm.
I was studying Chris Lori’s section on Average True Range, and then I read your post.
Even though you got stopped out, the set up is good and this is an idea I will be putting on test soon.
Chris Lori’s recommended to look for this kind of trades late NY session or during Asian session, due to a decrease in volatility and the rare probability of price being pushed further away from an already surpassed ATR.
So far I hadn’t came across with an approach that would let me look for set ups confidently outside the European session, but now I’ll be taking a look at this and probably I’ll be able to alternate my trading days between Europe and Asia (finally a whole night of sleeping :D).
Yes that’s it…lol. I knew I was too early. I came home for lunch which would be late NY, and re-entered short at 108.10. Volume/volalitily had dimished quite a bit and price was dropping. At one point I was up +30ish, but had a trailing 10 pip stop again which ended up stopping me out at +17 pips…dang…:D…so I ended up losing -13 pips so far…and the days not done yet.
The indicator I use for daily range resets at the Asian open which is 0 GMT or 7pm EST …I think…lol…an hour ago as of the timestamp on this post.
I do monitor the daily ranges quite a bit to compare with what ICT wrote about “small ranges beget large ranges…large ranges beget small ranges”. So if I see that yesterdays range was small, then sooner or later we’ll get a large one and those are the days we look for to trade…I think that’s what he meant.
Here’s another similar short setup on the AUDUSD M5 with all the required resistance ingredients:
A PDH
MR1 (from yesterday’s pivots)
Weekly R1
Bearish butterfly (AB=CD @ 200%)
Bearish divergence with CCI histogram
Low volume (blue indicator bars)
Price ending in 20
No news for at least 8 hrs.
So I put in a pending short order at .9417…just in case it didn’t reach .9420…and it has since triggered…
Now the flow indicator…the green up arrows at the top right …is based on price breaking fractal highs & lows on each timeframe from 15m to monthly. Accordingly, all timeframes are flowing up so this looks like countertrend trade and my stop will be tight…15 pips. Target will be 17 pips with a trailing stop set at 15.
One more thing…the range so far today is 67pips…avg 89, yesterday was 65. That seems like a small range day, so will today be a large range day?
Nope…didn’t work out :(…no bounce even with low volume/volatility this time. I guess the “up flow” was just too strong. Next time I will try with more down flow action showing on a few timeframes.
