I was hoping someone could comment on the attached graph.
2 year time frame, 90% quality, M15. Part of me wants to say yipee for the great return, but the last trade was a big winner and I’m not comfortable with the long time periods of losses. How does this graph compare to other EAs? Should I be shooting for something more exponential looking?
Btw, this algo is only trading on bullish trends right now and I know MT4 backtesting shouldnt be relied upon as an accurate portrayal for live trading, but I’m in the development stage. If you have any other backtesting recommendations, let me know.
I was hoping someone could comment on the attached graph.
2 year time frame, 90% quality, M15. Part of me wants to say yipee for the great return, but the last trade was a big winner and I’m not comfortable with the long time periods of losses. How does this graph compare to other EAs? Should I be shooting for something more exponential looking?
Btw, this algo is only trading on bullish trends right now and I know MT4 backtesting shouldnt be relied upon as an accurate portrayal for live trading, but I’m in the development stage. If you have any other backtesting recommendations, let me know.
Psychologically it would be very hard to trade this EA… Looks like 75% of the year you are suffering small losses… Depending on when you started the EA, you could spends months in negative territory.
I’ve found that my ea’s perform live exactly like my backtest as long as they aren’t sensitive to small timeframes, like many ticks within a few pips or trading during news, so I take my backtests seriously even though for some methods people consider them inferior.
I hate to break it to you, but your going to want to look for something with a linear slope. Exponential doesn’t matter because that’s just a matter of continuously increasing lot size on a winning strategy as it creates gains. Every strat will have some continuous losses, but you should have profitable months, and ESP quarters. What you had at the end is some lucky trades, that may or may not repeat. Unless you can identify in your code how to identify that lucky streak at the end, you may want to keep looking.
It appears to generally be unprofitable with a few larger, lucky trades that make it somewhat profitable. The long periods of unprofitability scare me and it it just looks like the leverage or lot size was increased in the end of the testing period, explaining the huge gain.
Overall, I would say get rid of it and start from scratch.
