Please help me evaluate my trend lines

[Estonian]

Greetings everyone,

I’m fiddling around with a demo account on Ctrader for over a month now, overal results are pretty dismal. First I tried some strategies based on indicators, but I quickly abandoned that course because I found it all too “conditional” and robotical.

So I am now trying to find my way with only 2 EMA’s and price action. Still I am way under 50% of the times right and I just can’t see what I’m doing wrong.

So I would like to ask the more succesful traders here to take a look at the following charts and find the errors in my reasoning. I thank you all in advance for your time.

1. EURGBP H1
   
   
   
   For me it’s clearly trending up. Bought at the arrow, but not looking too well at the moment.

2.USDJPY H1

Waiting to sell until price hits the resistance level.

3.USDCAD D1

Just bought this moment. Let’s see what it does.

4.CADJPY D1

Again just bought and awaiting what comes next.

5.AUDNZD D1

Bought at the arrow since I saw a bull pattern on an uptrend, you can see how badly that went.

6.EURJPY D1

Waiting for the price to hit the line, then buy.

7.GBPUSD W1

Once again, buy when price hits the resist.

[anon85101737]

EURGBP H1 - For me it’s clearly trending up. Bought at the arrow, but not looking too well at the moment.

For me, it’s congested, and I wouldn’t have traded. I don’t agree with where you’ve drawn the trendline either. Ends of wicks mean much more than opens and closes.

USDJPY H1 - Waiting to sell until price hits the resistance level.

I’d be waiting until it hits the resistance level and clearly reverses.

USDCAD D1 - Just bought this moment. Let’s see what it does.

You’ve entered a long trade right on the point of a big, clear, recent swing-low (otherwise known as “support”). You must be hoping it doesn’t turn into “resistance”, as “support” sometimes does. I wouldn’t have traded until I’d seen the answer to that.

CADJPY D1 - Again just bought and awaiting what comes next.

Good luck. Again, I wouldn’t have entered a long trade, right underneath what looks like a recent “double top”. Nowhere near clear enough for me, and way too risky.

.AUDNZD D1 - Bought at the arrow since I saw a bull pattern on an uptrend, you can see how badly that went.

Same mistake as in the previous trade, I think. You’re entering long trades right underneath recent S/R?

.EURJPY D1 - Waiting for the price to hit the line, then buy.

Same thing again, with that big, clear resistance only a few candles back? Definitely not for me.

GBPUSD W1 - Once again, buy when price hits the resist.

I can see slightly more argument for this one, but again I’d want it to go well through that line before I thought of entering, myself.

I hope they turn out well for you.

[Estonian]

TacitaTrader, your input is immensely appreciated, thank you very much. If you have the time and feel like doing so; please comment on my comments on your comments

Do you think I am drawing trend lines where there aren’t any (forcing trendlines)? Do I need to consider candlestick patterns more than trends?

[quote=“TacitaTrader, post:2, topic:116096”]
EURGBP H1 - For me it’s clearly trending up. Bought at the arrow, but not looking too well at the moment.

For me, it’s congested, and I wouldn’t have traded. I don’t agree with where you’ve drawn the trendline either. Ends of wicks mean much more than opens and closes.
[/quote]How is it congested? I see higher lows and higher highs. Where should you have drawn the line, if any?

[quote=“TacitaTrader, post:2, topic:116096”]
USDJPY H1 - Waiting to sell until price hits the resistance level.

I’d be waiting until it hits the resistance level and clearly reverses.
[/quote]A bearish candlestick closing below the line?

[quote=“TacitaTrader, post:2, topic:116096”]
USDCAD D1 - Just bought this moment. Let’s see what it does.

You’ve entered a long trade right on the point of a big, clear, recent swing-low (otherwise known as “support”). You must be hoping it doesn’t turn into “resistance”, as “support” sometimes does. I wouldn’t have traded until I’d seen the answer to that.
[/quote]

Here is the 4H chart, I did not regard my buying point a swing low but merely the low touching the trend line. Why would you classify this as a swing low, when its low is higher than the previous low?

[quote=“TacitaTrader, post:2, topic:116096”]
CADJPY D1 - Again just bought and awaiting what comes next.

Good luck. Again, I wouldn’t have entered a long trade, right underneath what looks like a recent “double top”. Nowhere near clear enough for me, and way too risky.
[/quote]I completely missed the double top, you’re right.

[quote=“TacitaTrader, post:2, topic:116096”]
.AUDNZD D1 - Bought at the arrow since I saw a bull pattern on an uptrend, you can see how badly that went.

Same mistake as in the previous trade, I think. You’re entering long trades right underneath recent S/R?
[/quote]Did I put too much emphasis on the pattern? Third candle did close above the trend line.

[quote=“TacitaTrader, post:2, topic:116096”]
EURJPY D1 - Waiting for the price to hit the line, then buy.

Same thing again, with that big, clear resistance only a few candles back? Definitely not for me.
[/quote]It is not a clear trend (anymore) you are right. It’s a ranging market right now. [quote=“TacitaTrader, post:2, topic:116096”]
GBPUSD W1 - Once again, buy when price hits the resist.

I can see slightly more argument for this one, but again I’d want it to go well through that line before I thought of entering, myself.
[/quote]Why does it need to pass the line? I thought it only needed to bounce up and close above the trend.

[tommor]

I look to get into long-term trends using just the daily and weekly charts and 2 EMA’s. No indicators, no tick volume, no intra-day time-frame charts, no trend-lines.

I mostly agree with your directions on the daily charts -
USD/CAD - No. I am short this since 22/09. That looks like a very early entry now but I am stick with it below 1.27.
CAD/JPY - Yes. Buy order set, waiting for resumption of uptrend.
AUD/NZD - Yes. Waiting for more strength and follow-through in upward movement.
EUR/JPY - Yes. Hoping to enter any time now. Late getting on this one.
GBP/USD - Yes. Buy order set, waiting for resumption of uptrend.

[cndlstckchic]

Hi Estonia. So, on your first example EURGBP H1, I agree with Tacita Trader who said that it was congested. It WAS on a clear bullish trend, but by the time you bought it had been sideways for 19 hours. I do like that you bought at the point where your trend line intersected because that generally would be an area to watch, however I would have waited for it to resume trend and test that level, giving you a signal candle and some idea of what direction it’s going to go. I see from checking the current charts that this pair did continue on with the bullish trend (so in hindsight it would have worked out as long as you didn’t get stopped out) - but it could have just as easily stalled out and gone bearish for all we knew at the time the trade was placed. So, in general before placing a trade, I am looking for a trend, looking to buy (or sell) on a retracement, and looking for a signal candle - preferably off of a support line.

[cndlstckchic]

On the second example, USDJPY Daily chart (your heading says H1, but chart says Daily…) I actually see more of a bearish channel and price is currently showing weakness to go higher. So I suspect that it will not make it up to that level that you’re watching. I’m looking for price to drop after the weekend at market open.

[cndlstckchic]

Example #3 USDCAD Daily:

This looks like a perfect swing trade opportunity to go bearish (to me). The pair had been on a downtrend for a long stretch, tested the level it is currently at, broke through, and now comes up to retest previous support as resistance. That’s how I am seeing it anyway. You also have those two tiny candles at the level right before you placed your trade, showing weakness to go up. So I wouldn’t have bought here.

[cndlstckchic]

#4 CADJPY Daily

I am worried that this pair will drop back down to the 88.868 level to retest support (that is where I have my level drawn based on my weekly chart). So, I would have waited for it to do that, and drop a nice rejection signal - then buy.

[cndlstckchic]

AUDNZD daily:

There is a period of sideways consolidation for the prior week before you bought, where price failed to rise above that level. Have you ever heard the phrase ‘look left’? Basically meaning if its messy to the left of the trade - don’t get in. Let it get sorted out first. I see that you waited for it to drop back down to your rising trendline and then print a bull candle - but to me with all that mess to the left this isn’t an area to get in. It’s a sit on the sidelines moment. Another thing to consider is these candles are printing through the trendline, and through the moving average lines - weakness. If you had waited, with that trendline drawn - and then see a bearish candle break down through it (and close - you have to wait for it to close to make sure) that would have been a clear signal to go short. Could have made some money on the hourly chart or 4hr chart with a short trade. Now that it is retesting that level price is currently at - who knows what is next. I think it’s likely to continue rising, but I wouldn’t get in until I see it break that level, then come down and retest it as support and give a rejection candle.