BTW, dpaterso, you have so many posts I don’t believe one minute you are not trading already. 
I think you just like to “stir” the pot a little.
Hi Dale,
Well to your question I have to believe there is. I know by no means could trade by fundamentals…so much of it is way over my head…lol. I also have found that technical indicators do have their moments, but at some point will lose it.
Now the risk for this thread is a barage of systems will flood it for you to consider…lol.
However, in my almost 2 years of engrossing myself in this world, I’m now finding that there is an “in between”, or the best of both worlds. What I have found is what is called harmonic trading which is another type of price action trading. It encompasses the historically repetiveness of how the masses react to certain ecomomic events (fundamentals) by the way of behaviour patterns which are measured by fibonacci numbers (technical).
It is trading with an unbiased view which may be contrary to what all the “news” reports say. Most of us will never know how which news event will impact which market …too much information, so we only care what patterns develop as a response in general that indicate an area where price will reverse…swing areas if you will.
I quote: “[I][B]In essence, when this mass perception can be quantified or “gauged,” significant trade opportunities can be identified[/B][/I].”
Maybe your frustration is telling you that it’s time to let go of your current system/methods…you’ve given it a fair go but it didn’t hold water… and try something new. You’ve got the live trading experience which is a big hurdle to succeed, but in the grand scheme of time, trading forex for a couple of years is really only getting your feet wet…lol
Just don’t give up
To get back to Tymen first thread, lets see some numbers some charts some winning and losing profit percentages,longest number of losing trades biggest drawdown on whatever method you are using.What has work best for you in the past, position trading,swing trading,day trading,scalping and in what market equities,currency,options,futures.Do you keep detailed records hand written in a book or do you use software for that.Do you set daily goals.How many losing trades will allow in a day or week before you decide to turn the computer off and take a couple days.Do you back test your methods how many trades back usually 100 or a 1000 trades what profit percentage will allow 60,70.80% or return on your churn of capital 2,5,10 percent.I like meat with my potatoes please.
Hello AGAIN.
johnnykanoo:
Nice to hear from you again (if nothing else: at least I’ve had a ‘chat’ with some of my old ‘friends’ because of this thread)!!! LOL!!!
Well FIRST you HAVE hit ONE ‘nail on the head’!!! There have been MANY times I’ve wanted to ‘walk away’ from this but I KNOW that I’d have regrets and until I can ‘walk away’ BELIEVING that there is NOTHING more that I could have done to make a success in this business: I simply cannot and will not do it EVEN IF I have to enter a ‘demo competition’ to WIN some capital!!! LOL!!!
You mention ‘price action’ and ‘support and resistance’. I’ve looked at (some) of this more than once. My problem (aside from a possible lack of understanding) is this: the trades appear to be very short in duration. Would that be a correct statement to be making? In other words: I would know where to get ‘in’ but it’s the exits that confound me. With these types of systems: would I be correct in saying that you’re NOT looking for trends? I think my ‘mindset problem’ with this type of trading is that I’m just so ‘conditioned’ to be trading an ‘always in’ system (always stop and reverse) that I simply cannot see ‘price action for the trees’!!! LOL!!!
Anyway: I’ve always heard good reports about the ATT thread as well as james16’s threads so I’ll ‘mosey on over’ very soon.
Above all: thanks for the words of encouragement!!!
Oskar:
I’ve BEEN trading LIVE for two years and eight months now (well OK: I’ve been demo trading AGAIN for about the past three to four months trying to develop a DECENT and CONSISTENT trading ‘regime’ as it were so I guess the past three to four months don’t really count). BUT this is WHY I started this thread this morning!!! After THIS LONG one would EXPECT to be showing consistent profits not COPIOUS amounts of losses. OK so let’s narrow it down further: I’m the first person to admit that for the FIRST year I didn’t know WHAT I was doing (in spite of THINKING that I DID)!!! LOL!!! Also: I believe I’m ‘as near as damnit’ to having a trading system that will work well BUT I’m ALSO very MUCH aware of the fact that it, like ALL the others, will have major ‘issues’ if price starts to trade in a range. The only DIFFERENCE is POSSIBLY the fact that my losses will be minimised but this DOES NOT detract from the fact that long periods COULD pass without showing any profit at all.
And, maybe, I AM ‘stirring the pot’ here (unintentionally I might add). I believe that there is ‘more too this’ than my (whatever) li’l ol’ trading system and my own profits or losses. There are a LOT of unanswered questions for me about ‘the game as a whole’.
And by the way: I’m GLAD you ‘vented’!!! I get the (your) picture!!! LOL!!! And thank you!!!
Sweet Pip:
As ALWAYS in the past: I can count on you for some sound advice!!! You make a good point (about being possibly SWAMPED with a variety of trading systems to ‘try out’) so let me make sure this does not happen.
The OBJECT of me starting this thread is NOT to find YET ANOTHER ‘technical trading system’ or to find out what everyone else is doing. I have ‘technical trading systems’ ‘coming out of my ears’ (I’ve even LITERALLY DREAMED UP some of my own). The PROBLEM (so far as I’m concerned) is that ALL of these systems WILL FAIL at some point AND BADLY. I guess what I REALLY saying is this (to everyone): BE CAREFUL with a ‘technical trading system’ that you may be using ESPECIALLY if it’s working well NOW. Since the beginning of THIS year: some of these very simple trading systems could not have done anything else BUT make money. BUT: would those SAME trading systems have made money EVERY YEAR (and I DO NOT mean $100 per year either) for, let’s say, the past FIVE years.
Back to Sweet Pip:
I guess that MAYBE it’s having that ‘best of both worlds’ that I aspire to. I have to note that support and resistance has been mentioned MORE than once here. Maybe I DO NOT understand this as well as I think I do. Maybe it’s time to ‘re-visit’ this. That said: when I ‘deem’ support or resistance to be at a certain level you can ‘bet your bottom dollar’ that if I place a stop there then price will ‘barrel through’ as if it did not exist!!! SO FAR: THAT is my experience with support and resistance!!! LOL!!!
It was nice to hear from you and thank you for your input.
Now Letseethepips:
RECORDS!!! You want RECORDS??? It’s taken me TWO YEARS to implement MONEY MANAGEMENT and you want RECORDS now??? ONE THING AT A TIME!!! LOL!!! (Only joking). But no: I don’t have trading records at all (well: not the type that YOU are talking about anyway) and therefore no statistics for the various systems that I’ve used in the past. MOST of the systems I’ve ‘paper traded’ using the data that is current in my platform (five years worth). Admittedly: the only figure I calculate is the net profit at the end of the five years. If that’s dismal: then to me it’s a bad system. I do also note the maximum drawdown and the maximum number of consecutive losing trades.
I SHALL post some charts as promised BUT let me re-iterate my point (made above): it’s NOT a trading system I’m after. It’s ‘something else’ (and maybe I’m not even sure what it is right now). It’s an ‘understanding’ that I’m after. A ‘WHY’ (if that makes sense). Put another way: with ALL of the trading systems I’ve used in the past (and even my CURRENT ‘offering’): EVEN A MONKEY could trade them (come to think of it a MONKEY would PROBABLY do a better job because he’d not be second guessing the system all of the time). It’s ALMOST ‘trade by number’ (‘paint by number’) (my systems)??? But there’s more to this business I believe and it’s ‘that thing’ that I’m after. I don’t know if you could call it an ‘edge’ or a ‘deeper understanding’ or what you would call it. ‘That thing’. I’m not explaining myself very well here I know.
But THANK YOU TOO for you interest shown!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Dale,
I would just like to second JohnnyKanoo’s suggestion that you check out James16 thread. A look at ATT and why not Nial Fuller can’t hurt either.
I think you may find that James16 (Jim) almost speaks directly to you and your situation. As I understand it, he once was almost exactly where you are now.
Try to unlearn your indicator thinking, the always in approach, and clear your mind. I mean - really clear it!
Do what Jim says - Start demo trading on weeklies and dailies and don’t even think about moving on until you’re able to do that for at least three consecutive months. It’s right at the first post of the thread, I’m sure you’ll see the sun again if you choose to switch paths.
As for the fundamental part, I’ve decided that it’s just over my head and therefor I have the same view as JohnnyKanoo - it’s already priced in.
Good luck Dale!
You mention ‘price action’ and ‘support and resistance’. I’ve looked at (some) of this more than once. My problem (aside from a possible lack of understanding) is this: the trades appear to be very short in duration. Would that be a correct statement to be making? In other words: I would know where to get ‘in’ but it’s the exits that confound me. With these types of systems: would I be correct in saying that you’re NOT looking for trends? I think my ‘mindset problem’ with this type of trading is that I’m just so ‘conditioned’ to be trading an ‘always in’ system (always stop and reverse) that I simply cannot see ‘price action for the trees’!!!
dale the thing is this and this is james16’s words but if you cannot make money in a sideways market you will fail in the long run. Why? becasue the markets spend most of there time sideways puctuated by periods of trend then back to sideways.
we look for profit in “trouble areas” ill post a chart to show you what I mean.
Dale when you look at this chart start with the pinbar that is in the beige box than read the other comments.
this trade could have lasted for as little as a day or it could have gone for a month. that is up to you. alot of people “scalp” the daily chart with this method. I prefer to hold onto a winner but it takes time to gain confidence in this method but once you see it in action you will be addicted!!! Look at your favorite chart dow mini dow mini russel forex whatever. look for these pinbars and see for yourself. they are very high probability when you trade then off of swing highs or swing lows. The beuty of it is this is so simple to learn and to implement and you don’t really need to focus on fundamentals at all. Eventually you may want to take a daily set up or a 4h setup then drill down to a 15m to manage the trade or you may want to use this type of price analysis to trade smaller timeframes. I will say this the daily and the 4h are very reliable when you go lower it is less of a high probability. By the time one trade equals a whole years salary why would you want to settle for anything less than an a+ setup?
Sorry for the long rant im just excited coz i know this method works!!!
Im glad to see your spirits are up and I hope to see you over in the j16 thread
talk to you later, john
btw i second what macygver says. jim did go thorugh years and years of hell. he would save and take his and his familys savings and he would trade them trying to make his system work. He lost alot of money and by now as a 25+ year veteran it is in his heart to teach people. His way of getting a better spot in heaven I don’t know but i will say this. he is very sincere and decent and he will help you so you can move into profitability especialy in the long run.
one final thought you could use his price analysis in any type of system that you use because no matter what price is price but i am certain he prefers an nice “clean” approach that is nearly 100% price analysis.
Hello Dale
Good to see you around again and as always, is great to read through your posts (though the length of them is distracting me from my trading:D). Great to see some top babypips people on here as well.
Look, I am still new at this and can only tread water at present and break even. I’m a long, long way off from giving my boss the two fingered salute and doing this for a living. God, I’d love to flip the bird at my boss so much, I feel its one of my goals that keps me going in times of trouble!
I got to second on what most people have said here and I’ll try and list where I think you could improve things. I’ve known you for a good while so please dont feel I’m taking the piss or talking down to you. I just want to see you successful.
1, You got to keep record of your trades. All of them. Just snap a couple of screen shots and put in a power point or something. or even just draw some doodles in a daily dairy and make a few notes on why you entered. This will do a couple of things. first, you can look back at all the screw ups and sometimes when I look back I can see clearly that I never should have been in. Also, the process of doing this will keep you from over trading, as sometimes I cant be bothered to write in the book, so it keeps me out of those so/so trades.
2, Money management, Small positions, Open at Oanda or something. Risk no more than 2% per trade (I’m using 1% just now). No more than a total of 6% loss can be on the table at one time. So that’s 3 trades at 2% or 6 at 1%.
3, Keep in demo until you can get 3 months in a row of consistent profit. i’m doin this now, advised by James16.
4, Throw away indicators. Forget about entering trades based on indicator signals. You got to have discretion and think "Is this a worthwhile set up? Dont just take a trade because your system says so.
5, I second the advice and comments given about james16 and price action. try to focus on that for a while, and not indicators.
6, Turn off Bloomberg or CNBC. Yes, I love Betty Lui and Mandy Drurie as well, but they got to go man. Watch some Nat Geo or ESPn or something. Or get some music on. All this bombardment of news and opnions was screwing me up.
Ok doke, this post is almost as long as one of yours now so I’m going to sign off for now. Hear from you soon buddy
Cheers
Boca
Some of the best advice I’ve seen on this forum in a long time. Nat Geo is where it’s at.
Consolidating the responses to your initial post, what are your thoughts about the way ahead in summary form, Dale?
Hi Dale,
Thank you for your explanation and kind words. I have misread your post.
I have studied monetary metals like gold and silver for many years. And I still do. I didn’t go to university or any other state run institution. Instead I was reading, studying and discussing the ideas from the Austrian School of Economics and Dr. Fekete with so called gold bugs.
Understanding gold and silver made me understand the mechanism at work in the so called “financial world” and so called “markets” a.k.a. FOREX, equities, commodities ect.
I have come to the conclusion over the years that you need to understand the [B][U]essence[/U][/B] of the product you are trading in order to be consistenly profitable.
For instance:
On FOREX we buy and sell FIAT [B][U]NOT[/U][/B] money or currencies.
The term FIAT means…
Government issued by fiat (Latin for “let it be” or “so be it” - money simply ordered into existence by the sovereign).
[B]A ‘usd, eur, chf, gbp, cad ect.’ bill is just a piece of paper. Deposits are merely computer entries.[/B]
Once you’ve grasped that concept and fully understood it’s consequences not only on FOREX but in all aspects of live you’ll look at your trading methodology a different way and trade differently because it changes your thinking on [B]how[/B] you trade.
I have the impression this is the kind of understanding you’re after. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
Take care,
cas
Well a VERY good morning to everyone!!!
o990l6mh:
You are very encouraging and I thank you for that. You also make some very good points ESPECIALLY about ‘clearing my mind’. I will (today) go over james16’s thread as well as the ATT thread.
As for the fundamental part, I’ve decided that it’s just over my head and therefor I have the same view as JohnnyKanoo - it’s already priced in.
I’m afraid that at THIS point I have to agree with your ‘take’ on this. Maybe at this stage of my ‘trading career’ I shoud not be expecting to understand fundamentals (although I have been trying with DISASTROUS results thus far). And as you both have said (and quite rightly so): the fact that MOST of the fundamentals are already priced in is something that I did not think of up until now. It SURE WOULD BE NICE though to be able to be able to sit down around a dinner table once in a while and give your ‘take’ on the future direction of equities AND BE RIGHT!!! LOL!!!
johnnykanoo:
Thank you for the detailed post as well as the VERY clear example (nice ‘clean’ chart by the way). (Who is ‘macgyver’ by the way i.e. I don’t se any post by that person here so I was just wondering).
I’m not sure that the purpose of this thread was to get down to the ‘nitty gritty’ but were here now so let’s continue!!! LOL!!!
I’ve been doing a lot of thinking since yesterday (thanks to the replies on this thread). Let me say this: I’m not ENTIRELY sure that I’m ready to ‘dump’ (at least) MY current trend following ‘offering’. Using the Dow as an example: this system WOULD have / COULD have been ‘good’ for around 2 000 Dow points since January this year (whipsaws ALREADY accounted for which ‘cost’ around 900 points). That’s not bad if you consider the sheer simplicity of the system. I think my MAJOR (and dare I say ONLY problem) is the fact that it does AND WILL have a problem when price starts to trade in a range. If I could JUST figure out how to either AVOID taking trades when price is trading in a range there would BE no problem (‘technically speaking’ of course). As you’ve noted: it’s the ‘sideways’ markets that cause problems for me. And the BIG problem with MY ‘types’ of systems are how to DETERMINE whether you’re in a sideways market or not WHEN the sideways movement BEGINS NOT when it’s ALREADY OVER (and THIS is where ‘traditional’ indicators ‘fall down’).
(Of course: this ‘stirling’ ‘paper traded result’ above would ONLY have been valid IF I was following MY OWN SYSTEM but that’s a WHOLE NEW THREAD!!! LOL!!!).
I agree totally with you about the time frames as well. WITHOUT FAIL I’ve lost money on ANY time frame shorter than the four hour time frame so THIS lesson I’ve learned already!!!
I AM going to post one or two ‘chart snippets’ shortly though where I will (if you don’t mind) ask you how YOU would have ‘handled’ one or two ‘situations’ and maybe we can go from there.
Boca!!! He’s ALIVE!!! Boca!!! Hello!!!
So nice to hear from you and I’m pleased to see / hear that you’re ALSO still ‘at it’!!!
WHAT IS YOUR PROBLEM??? I ‘flip the bird’ at MY boss (my trading platform) AT LEAST five times per day!!! LOL!!!
A few comments:
I’m bad at record keeping (well: my ACCOUNTING records at ‘top notch’ but TRADING records are non-existent as I’ve mentioned). HOWEVER: given the fact that I’m sitting here ALL day EVERY day I ‘kinda sorta know’ where my problems have ocurred and why. I spend more time analysis BAD trades than good ones and there is a common thread with all of them i.e. ‘the sideways market’ as noted above.
Money management: I believe I’m OK with this (NOW anyway). That being said: I CANNOT lie and say that I don’t regularly break the 6% rule!!! At 2% risk per trade: that’s only three positions open at any given time. I have a serious ‘self control’ problem with this but it’s noted.
As you know: I’ve been demo trading now for a good while. It’s frustrating for sure but I think I’ve been very lucky here i.e. BECAUSE of my ‘stress’ I’ve had no problem in going through the same emotions and reacting the same way as I would have done with real money again. What I’m saying is that there is NO reason that whatever performance I’m able to attain on the demo account cannot be realised on the live account. In other words: I’m not fooling myself and going ‘hell for leather’ on a demo account JUST because it’s not REAL money (although I MUST admit that JUST FOR FUN I opened a demo account on Monday and risked 50% of the account on a single trade on the Dow to try to win the monthly competition but I THINK that position has been stopped out now. LOL!!! I’ve not checked)!!!
I HAVE ACTUALLY ‘thrown away’ ALL indicators (except my little ‘system’ which really is an indicator itself I suppose). What I’m saying is that I NO LONGER have a KAJILLION indicators on my charts (which I used to do before MAINLY to ‘justify’ to MYSELF that the trade I was in was ‘right’ while at the same time having a ‘feeling’ that it was ‘wrong’).
TURN OFF BLOOMBERG!!! Have you TOTALLY lost your MIND!!! LOL!!! I see there are some ‘new faces’ around now (one or two of them make Betty look like ‘the ugly duckling’)!!! LOL!!! ALL jokes aside though: I only realised yesterday (because of this thread) that ACTUALLY I’ve been fooling MYSELF into thinking that I no longer act on what I see on TV. Just because I’m not ACTING i.e. opening a TRADE based on something I’ve seen / heard DOES NOT mean that OVERALL what I’ve seen / heard has not affected my PERCEPTION SUBCONCIOUSLY. As I’ve noted: IN SPITE of having a system that would have got me ‘in’ LONG on the Dow on 17 March 2009 at 7 454 and KEPT me ‘in’ right up until today (with one whipsaw along the way) I would have been trying to short the darn thing all the way up!!! This I believe is LARGELY due to having this constant ‘influx’ of ‘GLOOM AND DOOM’. The attitude that I MUST adopt from here on in: DO NOT WORRY about WHY price is moving in a certain direction. ACCEPT that fact THAT IT IS moving in that direction and ‘go with the flow’.
It was GREAT to ‘hear’ from you though. Please stay in touch.
Andrewunkown:
I was GOING to detail a ‘point by point summary’ to answer you question but I believe I’ve covered MOST of what I NOW understand in my notes above.
That said: there are stlll a few issues outstanding but ‘do they really matter’ REALLY.
I still am of the opinion that we are NOT REALLY ‘trading’ in the TRUE sense of the word. Is this important??? I suppose not. PERSONALLY I believe it would be a WHOLE LOT EASIER to make money ON THE FLOOR where you’d be ACTUALLY buying or selling ‘something tangible’.
There are a LOT of things I want to REALLY GET TO KNOW. I spend a LOT of time reading about ‘things’ that are SUPPOSED to give you that ‘edge’ e.g. the put / call ratio on the S&P. The problem: I have a hard time understanding a lot of this stuff. ‘Things’ like ‘bond auctions’ and ‘bond yields’ and ‘the tightening and widening credit spreads’. This type of thing. Unfortuanately THUS far this ‘stuff’ is ALSO ‘over my head’. But it’s this type of ‘in depth understanding’ of the markets that I wish to attain. And all of THIS ASIDE from understanding fundamentals!!! ONE thing I’m ONE THOUSAND percent sure of: a person could NEVER get BORED in this business!!!
One thing I’ve been meaning to ask (this is a bit specific): does anyone here employ the strategy of, for example, buying the stock but selling the ETF (sector)??? This is something that I’ve noticed: these Wall Street ‘gurus’ NEVER have ‘all their eggs in one basket’. In other words: they create a PROPER hedge against potentail losses (unlike the ‘BS’ that is promoted by SOME brokers i.e. that ‘thing’ of being long and short the same pair at the same time)!!! Just curious.
I guess I was really a bit too ‘harsh’ in my first post (thread starter post). Of course (and as with ANY business I suppose): there WILL be ‘scams’ and ‘scam artists’ (referring to my comment about the brokers). I guess there is ONE thing that I will FOREVER be grateful for and THAT IS my broker. I NEVER have orders ‘slipped’ and I NEVER have ANY of the problems that I see other ‘poor souls’ having to contend with. CAN YOU IMAGINE if I NOT ONLY had to worry about MYSELF but ALSO about my BROKER!!! LOL!!!
I guess one other important issue has been highlighted more than once in this thread is the issue of overtrading. As I said: I’m alright with the ‘2% rule’ but I DO KNOW that I need to ‘calm down’ on the sheer NUMBER of instruments traded / positions open BEFORE I start trading live again. It’s difficult though. I’ve seen $500 MADE in a day or two on a $1 000 (demo and even SOMETIMES live) account while only risking 2% per position but having MANY positions open at once. KNOWING that this IS POSSIBLE and HAS HAPPENED on MANY occasions makes it all the more difficult to resist. But you know what: who am I to think that I know better!!! These ‘rules’ have been ‘tried and tested’ for YEARS and they just simply have to be followed is all. Of course: there is the ADDED problem in this regard and that it ‘time’. I owe a few people a LOT of money and I’m not making a living either. The temptation is always there to try to make as much as possible in as short a space of time to eliminate these issues. I have to say that the people that entrusted me with money have been nothing other than TOTALLY supportive and EXTREMELY patient with me and I believe that I’m REAL lucky in this regard ESPECIALLY given all of the ‘forex scams’ and Ponzi Schemes that are ‘coming out of the woodwork’ on just about a DAILY basis THANKS TO MR MADOFF & CO!!! I do not want to be ‘tarred with the same brush’ and aside from the LEGAL aspects I honestly and truly believe that I have a MORAL DUTY to ‘make good’ on my promises to the people concerned. The point is that I cannot (and do not) expect them to wait forever either. So of course this ALL ‘plays into the equation’.
Thank you to EVERYONE who has contributed here. The posts here have certainly been of great benefit to ME thus far. I’d like to see this all go a bit further you know in a sort of ‘general discussion way’. Who knows: maybe this can be of benefit to those poor souls who are ‘lulled’ into the belief that this is ‘easy and quick money’ (at least before THEY land up where I am right now)!!! LOL!!!
Later (with some charts on hand)!!!
Thanks again everyone.
Dale.
Hey cas,
Sorrry: I only saw your post NOW i.e. I must have been typing up my ‘short novel’ (previous post) while you were replying.
That is EXACTLY the type of thing I’m talking about.
It’s probably that type of ‘second nature’ or ‘feel for the market’ that I want to develop. I would like to develop (sometime???) the kind of ‘second nature’ where I could hear a weather report and sort of ‘know’ how this will affect the price of Soybeans for instance (and be RIGHT of course). I’d like to know about and UNDERSTAND all of these intruments that are tradeable and UNDERSTAND the correlations between them. I suppose I want to develop the skill where I could pick up a newspaper and read, what to others may be a SEEMINGLY UNRELATED article, about some current or future event, and be able to CORRECTLY apply this knowledge to the market. I guess it’s MORE than ‘trading knowledge and understanding’ that I’m after. BUT as I said in my previous post (novel???): it’s not something that’s going to happen overnight (and two and half years in this business IS NOT EVEN ‘overnight’)!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Me again
Well, strong trends are the easiest to trade, and in strong uptrends even the dumbest stock picker can make money.
I think it’s a really strange question, that you don’t know how to identify a range bound market vs a trend. Isn’t that really really basic TA stuff? Just use a higher time frame (weekly, daily) and use enough data (minimum 1 yr on the daily’s) and draw trend lines.
I’m not sure anymore if all these things you write are real. In case this is, you’re in deep trouble and I advice you to forget everything you’ve done so far and start all over again. 
Hi Dale,
Chasing pips using computer networks a.k.a. GLOBEX and trading software on a personal computer is [B][U]one[/U][/B] way of trading. The trouble is most people are under the impression that’s all what trading consists of.
I started trading currencies in the 80’s. I was sitting behind a desk and exchange currencies by hand. People used to come in with their USD, GPD YEN ect. in hand and I would take one currency and would give them another currency they desired. The reference a.ka. daily exchange rate I would get from a Reuters ticker.
I would then hold, sell, buy different currencies according to movements in the exchange rate in my favour.
Never used a computer…all done through physical exchange.
I traded currencies without TA, pips ect.
I do it with Crude Oil, USO ETF and stocks from oil companies with the USDCAD pair thrown in.
Also, I trade gold/silver ratio.
Regards,
cas
Hello,
Hey ‘ME’:
I’m not sure anymore if all these things you write are real.
I’m not quite sure what is meant by the above. HOWEVER: at no point did I say that I cannot tell the difference between a trend and a range. That’s REAL easy ESPECIALLY historically i.e. with hindsight. The ‘trick’ is to REALISE that price HAS STARTED to trade within a tight range WHEN IT STARTS HAPPENING WITHOUT getting whipsawed a few times for confirmation!!! And what I WAS saying was: this is where ‘traditional indicators’ ‘fall over’ because (one of them at least) needs at VERY least three price bars to indicate (assume???) that price is trading in a range and then ANOTHER three price bars to indicate (assume???) a breakout from the range. Maybe that’s ‘as good as it gets’ (with ‘traditional indicators’ anyway).
Unfortuanately I cannot agree with your other statement either (about the ‘dumb stockpickers’). I’d wager a fair amount of USD that a LOT of money is lost by ‘dumb stockpickers’ jumping in on a trend only to be JUST in time to catch the reversal. As a matter of fact: this very website is LITTERED with ‘war stories’ of this nature.
cas:
WHY does it ‘feel’ more ‘logical’ (and dare I say seem that it would be EASIER) to buy and sell the PHYSICAL NOTES!!! LOL!!!
Edit:
Then again is that not the SAME as being a broker??? In other words: you would have realised the commission on the exchange and did not really have to worry about the actual VALUE of the physical currency as such. If a currency that you were physically holding APPRECIATED in value and YOU could then exchange it then ‘good on you’ but if NOT: at SOME point somebody would need that (now DEVALUED) currency and you’d cover any of YOUR loss exchange at that time.
Anyway: if it’s OK with you I’d like to email you sometime to get an idea of how you IN PRACTICE use the ETF’s etc. I mean to say: I understand the CONCEPT but it’s the calculation of the position sizes that has be ‘befuddled’!!!
Regards,
Dale.
What indicator would one use to identify a trend? Or trend break? The only thing I can think of are simple trend lines.
To many people ignore the major trends though, they have no idea what’s going on in the longer term.
You’re right about the mass buying at the exact top (that’s an art too :D). But I meant, in a bull market, lot’s of stocks make new highs, so chances are greater to pick a good one.
Thank you for the detailed post as well as the VERY clear example (nice ‘clean’ chart by the way). (Who is ‘macgyver’ by the way i.e. I don’t se any post by that person here so I was just wondering).
im talking about o990l6mh. Did you see his avatar? It is macgyver an tv show from the late 80’s he is the guy who can make a bomb out of a shoelace a tampon and some chewing gum lol!!!
Anyway dale I won’t innondate you with anymore j16 stuff except to say that yes it works great in ranging markets and also I only illustrated one pattern the pinbar. there are several other ones to look at and they include how to identify breakout trades and also alot fo these “patterns” do show up at the top and bottom of ranges. so as long as there is enough room for there to be a swing high or a swing low within the range than yes you can most definatly trade this method and the other good thing is you can definatly look at all your favoirte insturments because if all you are looking for is a+ setups then you will only get maybe half a dozen or so from the forex pairs a month. im not sure about the other markets like crude or gold or dow.
anyway im glad you are reflecting on your self this is important. because knowing yourself is paramount to any type of trading and in fact it is far more important to address your own psychology than to address your trading system itself.
talk to you later, john
Hello again.
You know that thing about ‘a picture’ and the ‘thousand words’. Well: I’ve attached four charts (in a WinZip file). Take a look at them IN ORDER i.e. 1, 2, 3, then 4. THIS is my ‘bug bear’. Solve THIS problem and I’ll make us ALL rich!!!
(The charts are AUD/USD four hour by the way).
To answer your question:
I’ve tried EVERY indicator that you could possibly name to identify a trading range (and I’ll wager I’ve tried some indicators that most do not even know about i.e. ‘new’ ones from a ‘new’ book)!!! LOL!!!
EVERYONE’S ‘take’ on these charts would be informative.
Regards,
Dale.
audusdtrendrange.zip (184 KB)
Hey johnnykanoo,
I get it now. I’d seen o990l6mh’s picture but I’d always assumed that was HIM!!! LOL!!! I appreciate the irony of having a picture of MacGyver here!!! (Maybe THAT is what I should call my TRADING SYSTEM)!!! LOL!!!
Don’t worry: I’ll be ‘moseying on over’ to your thread(s) shortly (I’ve just got one of two things to do right now). If nothing else: at VERY least trading the four hour charts and the daily charts allows you SOME time to ‘do duties’!!!
Maybe YOU TOO can take a look at my charts posted and tell me what YOU would have done here???
Regards,
Dale.
