Today’s vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal will take place in the evening, although the exact timings are dependent how long the amendments are voted on before. John Bercow has announced that seven of these will go to a vote, immediately after the debate ends at 7.00pm tonight. Allowing around 15 minutes per amendment vote, we should be looking at the main vote on Mrs May’s “Plan B ” taking place between 8.30pm and 9.00pm, with the result coming shortly after.
If this does not pass then the likely event for a ‘hard Brexit’ is more so likely
Combine this with lower session liquidity and it adds up to a chop chop market.
1st amendment rejected. move up of GBPUSD plus 5 pips
2nd defeated - crushed plus 3 pips
3rd defeated but close and 10 pip retracement now coming back now back down 35 pips and bouncing, hit my risk tolerance, did not go the way I was expecting, at lest no yet. Suppose I should have been watching the USD and Gold.
4th defeated and still heading south
Here is the order for the activity
The Blackford amendment is next. It’s from the SNB and would ask for Article 50 to be extended and that Scotland not be forced to leave the EU. It will almost surely fail.
Here’s the order beyond that:
A - Labour amendment
O - Blackford amendment
G - Grieve amendment
B - Cooper amendment
J - Reeves’ amendment
I - Spelman amendment
N - Brady amendment
They are spaced about 15 minutes apart, baring any tomfoolery.
There is a whisper that the 27 will re-open the negotiations very soon. They have binned the backstop, will give UK full access to the market - no conditions - they call it May plus plus plus .
The whisper will be formally announced the first working day after Brexit - in the meantime it’s a rumour
So I’m a bit confused, basically we knew that the amendments were going to get defeated, So why did the GBP go south? MY dumb logic said it should go north?
Not as much of a move as I was hoping for, at best a 110pip slide in total from high to low with a new weekly low (took about 30mins in total, so rather fast as expected). Lets see how the rest of the week plays out and how the data is digested.
Bacon, it has channelized at 100 pips, the big boys play with even numbers. I think they are done for the day, Me thinks a bird in the hand is better than in the bush, Take your money and run.
