Pound Breaks 100 SMA- Start of the Downtrend?

  •       [B]Euro Continues to  Consolidate[/B]
  •       [B]Japanese Yen a Recapture of 115.50  pints to 118.00  [/B]
  •       [B]British Pound Breaks the 100 SMA as Trend Points Down[/B]
  •       [B]Swiss Franc Support at 1.1800 Remains  Key[/B]
  •       [B]Canadian[/B][B] Dollar Honing in on  Parity[/B]
  •       [B]Australian Dollar Reaches a Moment of  Truth[/B]
  •       [B]New  Zealand[/B][B] Dollar Looks More Constructive than  the Aussie [/B]

[B]Commentary[/B]: No change to the EURUSD outlook. The bullish bias remains but the pair continues to consolidate in the 1.3926-1.3844 corrdor. The record high at 1.3944 remina sthe key obstacle on the way to 1.4000 but the near trem price action remains construtive.

[B]Strategy[/B]: Look to enter long close to 1.3800, against 1.3719, target 1.4000

[B]Commentary[/B]: The yen continues to churn within a ever tightening symmetrical triangle and the resolution of the price action may well point to the next major move in the pair. Overhead resuatnce remains at 115.48, but a burst through there opens up the possibility of a rise to 118.00. On the other hand a failure below the 114.50 points to reterst of the double bottom near the 112.00 fugure

[B]Strategy[/B]: Bullish close to 114.50, against 112.59, target 118.00

[B]Commentary[/B]: The pound broke the 100 SMA once again and note that this time the prior recovery high was substantially lower suggesting a distribution top may be in the making. 2.0050 - former support now resistance - acts as an overhead to any bounce but the test of 100 SMA remains significant and only a close above that level negates the bearish bias.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat

[B]Commentary[/B]: The Swissie finds itself at a critical juncture with 1.1816-1.1876 providing key support as the pair tries to make it sfourth bottom at this level. Near term price action seems indeterminate but the higher lows over the pasr several days suggest that a test of support may be complete with USDCHF heading higher. However only a recaoture of the 1.1900 level confirms the bullish bias.

[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat

[B]Commentary[/B]: Having broken support at 1.0346 and having made 30 year highs against the greenback, the trend in USDCAD remains unabashedly bullish. A retrace to the 1.0350 level may be a natural test of resistance but only a breal above the 1.0500 level negatves the downward bias. For now the pair appears to be honnign in on parity.

[B]Strategy: [/B]Flat

[B]Commentary[/B]: The Aussie remains stalled at the key Fibo 61.8% retrace of the 7/25-8/16 bear wave as the .8400 level becomes the battleground between the bulls and the bears. A resolution higher opens the way to 8600, however a failure here could signal the start of a major bear move as the pair would then have completed a seond lower high.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Look to get bullish near .8324, against .8171, target TBD

[B]Commentary: [/B][B]The Kiwi structure looks more constructive than the Aussie as the pair now tries to test the 7272 high set by the shooting star on [/B]8/27. A break above that level opens the way to 7700 but whether the pair has that kind of momentum left in it remains to be seen. For the time the trend remains up.

[B]Strategy:[/B] Remain bullish, against .6824, target above .7272