I was long too on AUD/USD…
:17: Stopped out also on this one, not my best month. :17:
Hey DnB have you moved your SL to BE also on this or you took a loss?
Its true, different strokes for different folks as they say. Some just need the body engulfed e.g. Steve Primo, others want the whole candle including wicks. l guess whichever works best with the strategy you are employing the pattern in.However, as DnB said we can be talking big stops with both types and lots of traders use retrace entries with this pattern, entering at S/R,50% pullback, Fib levels etc Also, Steve Primo trades it as a Continuation Pattern whilst most use it as a Trend Reversal Pattern. So once again its a question of PA reading skills.Simple but never easy!
Think it was a News Spike which killed AUD trades this time; emploment figures or something from last night. Very choppy PA just now… the EURGBP trade l posted earlier missed my T1 by 3 pips and has now pulled back and taken me out at break even.Very annoying but shows the importance of Money Management and good old Stoicism in this game! Oh yes, and being open to the possibility of a second attempt entry in the same direction as entry 1, as its often just the timing that’s out not the trade idea.
This is an interesting situation.Price is in a daily downtrend and has tried to go up but has been blocked by the 10/20 emas creating a false break and printing a Pin Bar just below the 20ema and 50sma. there is significant resistance below but with enough room to move a stop to BE if price breaks down. How do you see it please Dnb?
Thanks.
(Its a daily chart of USDCAD…its hard to see on the chart itself!)
i think it looks pretty good…
it does look like price is struggling to get higher…
but key thing is the price is downtrending proper…im going to keep my eye on this as basically this is a massive engulfing bar…is how i see it.
im gonna wait for price to break the bottom of the bar…and then if it looks like a strong move im gonna take this trade.
the only proplem is there is support close under …so once price moves down it will have to deal with the support …so must be watched and ready to take profits early.
nice one.
edit…
in fact i have just measured it and support is 100 pips away…
great…so no need to take profits early.
edit 2…in fact im not sure…i dont know if that is classed as a bullish engulfing bar…have to ask dnb…if it is then maybe a short is totally out of the question.
Good spot Evermore. Certainly worth investigating.
Its a pin and its in the right place.Could be a good trade but l am hesitant. Its a bullish pin and when you look inside it on the 4hr chart you see price has just started an uptrend and printed two hesitation bars at the 20ema.The weekly chart is mixed on this…50sma is pointing up and there is a little upward momentum. Maybe it could move up some more before dropping or maybe its starting an uptrend.Re your comment " worth a shot" l know exactly what you mean, but these days a trade has to be much more than that for me…l really do want the balance of probabilities in my favour in a strong way or l leave it be.
Just my thoughts but it is tempting l know and there is Hidden Divergence on it too, which is a Continuation pattern supporting the short.
Would be interested in DnB’s view.
Cheers.
By “False Break” I mean price tried to break out the two previous inside bars, but failed miserably. In the same token, the pin bar rejected dynamic resistance of 21 EMA. Another recent example of this false break can be seen on NZD/JPY, you will that price formed and inside bar, then tried to break it and failed at a swing high. This is one the most powerful formations and for me is a must-pull-the-trigger-signal.
Keep in mind that this formations, as everything in forex, does not always work.
Hope this helps.
nice one. evermore…very educational…ill keep an eye open for those things
hi micheael…could you please just explain this hidden divergence…as i am clueless as to what it means…and would really like to understand…
thanks
Best way to explain it is to turn to Babypips…a great educational site! They have a few excellent lessons on Divergence including Hidden Divergence…
Hidden Divergence | Trading Divergences | Learn Forex Trading
Its really worth a read!
Hope this helps.
Just tried to post a link to a lesson on this site and it got moderator intercepted…l must have used a key word or something…so best way to check out Divergence is look it up on this site…there is a great series of mini-lessons on it…hope this helps!
Well as l said the EURGBP trade l took missed my T1 by 3 pips came back kissed my stop which l’d moved to BE and today went right back and hit my previous T1 without me! FX!!! The USDCAD set-up l posted yesterday has dropped nicely but l’ve closed out with 31pips profit as there are just so many big weekend gaps these days.So,a BE week as l lost half a position on my AUDCHF trade, but had some fun!
Have a great weekend all!
Two losses and one BE this week. Not good.
i think you should not move the stop:
I.E. : if you are not sure about a trade don’t take it,
if you are sure, don’t move the stop to BE, at least when price reach 1:2 R:R…
you should consider your stops like the monthly rent for your office, or your home, sometimes it will be reached…
in italy we say: chi non risica non rosica… (Nothing risked nothing gained)
Hey guys, just wanted to throw out a chart for feedback to start the weekend. Two bar reversal on the NZDUSD D1. Overall trend is up, last week price dropped from recent highs. PA printed a two bar reversal at close today which can signal a reversal of recent down trend. Price closed at 0.7956 today. Looking to get in at market on Sunday around .7966, TP at .8050, SL at .7925 (if you look at 7/9, 7/10, 7/11 .7930 was holding as support those previous three days). Let me know what you guys think. Cheers,
This week I had 3 trades. 2 losers and one BE. Let’s see what happened.
1. NZD/USD
Although this one resulted in a loss, I feel proud of myself as I executed the trade according to plan, so no biggie here.
2. EUR/GBP
This one was perfect too. Only problem: I moved my SL for a stupid emotional reason. I have to work more on coping with the fact that every trade have a random outcome. I need to leave my emotions behind my trades.
3. GBP/USD
Giving a trade room to breath or moving to BE quite quickly because of the present nervous and choppy mkt conditions…not an easy choice at the moment. The mkt seems to know…leave you stop at its original place and it retraces all the way back to it…move it to BE and it just comes back enough to kiss it goodbye before moving in your direction!! Hard to do the maths as to which is the best method in present conditions so l guess its which one you can live with the easiest…more BEs and fewer losers and fewer winners or leave your stop and get more losers but probably more winners too!
just one thing i think you should pay attention too evermore…
even on your trades that have lost…
look at where you placed your stop loss
then look at what happened after your stop loss was triggered…
look at this situation on 10 trades and maybe you will come to a certain conclusion…one of the conclusions may be that you are picking bad trades…but i have seen some of your trades and they look pretty good to me…but we all pick bad trades…especially us newbies.
other conclusions will be picked up…conclusions that i have picked up on…and if you watch carefully you too will pick up on them…as i am no expert…but some things are obvious…you may notice some things that require some serious investigation from you…
just remmber the markets are preditorial…and there are some of the most clued up intelligent people getting paid millions of pounds to extract huge amounts of money from the market…they have methods…and they know the ropes…
for someone to make money in forex …someone has to lose money …for every seller there must be a buyer…
these experts apply certain methods to the market …and we need to know how they think…
anyway…im not saying stop using stop loss…that is the way i trade…but its not for everyone…im just saying watch and see what you learn.
ok stop loss is maybe important if you are not there to babysit your trades…
but if you are there especially in (everybody doing business time) you are covered.you can pull the plug any time then and there…and if you are only away when the markets are dead…then you are covered.
i understand how crazy my trading style may seem to people who dont know what i know…and dont really know how i trade…but that is a long story and i dont really want to get into it…i will have 1000 people screaming at me…and i dont want to offend everyone…i know why they do what they do …i understand…
this week my account is up nearly 7.8 percent… …and ill tell you what happens next week too.
ps…have you ever had a trade when you just knew and could see tthat price was going to hit your stop loss…i mean you could just see it…
then why wait until it hits it…i just dont understand this.
all i can think is that even 1 pip away …people [B]hope[/B] it will turn around and go their way…that is trading on hope …not price action.
Hi Shade,
After just a quick glance at the chart l would be very wary of entering on Sunday especially with all the recent weekend gaps. Personally l would wait a while. Why? Well the weekly chart has printed a Pin Bar pointing up this week after a Pin Bar pointing down last week…Dueling Swords…l’m not an expert on this pattern but over two weeks l guess its a giant Doji/Hestitation Bar if you blend them. Plus the daily has closed just under the huge psychological round number Resistance of 80 and just below the 200 sma…big barriers to get thro…maybe best to wait for price to break thro 80 and come back to re-test it or even wait for a break/re-test of the 8050 area where there is even more Resistance.
Just my thoughts and l am a conservative trader!
Good luck if you go ahead!