LOL. Apparently several of us seem to be married to the same woman Hogarste :18:
Sell entry from the demo trade detailed above (last night’s USD/CAD) was just triggered a few minutes ago. As I said, it was a demo trade so was happy to play with it a little. Would I have taken the trade in real account…hhhmmmmm, dunno to be honest. maybe that answers the question in itself.
Anyway, triggered at 1.0045, stop 1.0090, target 1.0000
EDIT; Lemme just edit that a little quickly. may well be a bit of support around 1.0030
Hey Hogarste,
If I am not mistaken, you are in NYC correct? If so, just an FYI there is a NY Traders Expo 2013 Trading Contest. Not sure when but I just found this flyers from my broker. Below is the link…
http://www.forex.com/resources/pdf/tradeshow_flyer_final01-1.pdf… If you wanted to boost your trading capabilities and you never know get some exposure and win some $$ :)… just a thought…
I will definitely check this out. Thank you PinNRoll.
Ohh and bring your wife too :)…
You never know maybe she will be interested. If she is, there is nothing wrong to be a “couple who trades” or Trading couple? Lol… making up some words here. Besides, we needed more female traders because Men traders are soooo overrated…just saying…lol
Just to raise a point about trade management.
USD/CAD trade now +17, sitting on support I mentioned, when do you move your stop to BE or do we let it move a little further ?
Ooooh decisions decisions
I try to hold out for 30 pips, and then take half off and move my stop to BE.
I’m watching this trade and rooting for you.
What a lovely idea PipNRoll. Because speaking for us fellas who get great suggestions from our wives when we do things like drive a car, send in the bills, etc, we’re just looking for ways to get more input form our better halves when it’s time to make a decision. Probably why we take up trading to begin with.
I was just thinking this morning, how can I get the married men to stop reading this thread if my trade ideas and sense of humor aren’t getting that job done. It’s great to get some input on that:-)
Personally I never move a Stop because of a certain number of pips reached: I only ever trail to lock in full % point gains, or more often simply to above/below a new area of S&R.
Sense of humor comes natural… you can’t force it….just let it flow and you will be surprise when it comes out from nowhere.
These will probably an off topic in your thread but I think I should put it in here otherwise I will ask the admin to delete it if you don’t want it here.
I have read here somewhere a few months ago that this one guy he was hiding his trading from his wife/partner because she doesn’t believe in trading and she think it was evil gambling. So this poor man studying charts placing on trades behind her back despite the fact his wife is so furious about it. When she asked what he was doing, he would say “oh, nothing… I am just looking at X-rated adult material”. Isn’t it should be the other way around…lol? Why hiding your passion to trading to someone? I felt bad for this fella… He needed that support from his wife/partner because if no one believes in him that he can do it… who will?
Sometimes, it is not about your system/strategy of trading, you need a support from wife/gf/partner/parents, etc… to make it work too. Knowing that someone is believing in you that you can do it, it will help to boost your confidence, ego (the good one) and if you lose, someone will cheer you up and help you to stand in your feet and do it again. So, I think it is fair enough that your wife (if she is interested) should also be educated at least a little bit of what you are doing so maybe she can direct you too . It is always nice to know that she is there with you and supporting you 100% and maybe she can bit you up on trading too when she learn how to do it…lol… Then it will be a win win situation because both of you can make money…eventually
I certainly don’t mean to take this thread off course but since the topic of money management is starting to rear its head, I have wondered why traders scale out of positions.
For example, you have two traders, each trading 3 lots.
Trader A trades all 3 lots for the full market move trailing his stops in a somewhat logical fashion until he is eventually taken out, whether at 1:1 reward/risk or 10:1.
Trader B scales out his 3 lots, essentially having three different trades. One trade targets 1:1, the next at 2:1 (or 3:1 or 4:1 or whatever) and for the final trade he trails his stops as far as the market will allow.
For both traders the initial risk will always be the same (3 lots) but the potential for greater profits will always reside with Trader A. The risk that Trader B tries to mitigate by scaling out can be accomplished by trailing, just as Trader A does but the upside potential of any move is always limited when scaling out.
Has anyone found that scaling out smoothes the equity curve? Is it just a psychological thing? Why scale out? I know the obvious answer is to lock in profits but why limit those profits?
Couple of thoughts:
-I really appreciate all the comments.
-It seems that getting into a trade requires one to figure out two things. Frist, having a bias for the time period (in my case usually London Open into the London Close) of the trade and secondly an entry methodology or methodologies. Like most, I filter my ideas when I trade, so that I’m only getting into the market when I feel really good about my bias idea. More often than not, I think I’m right. The problem is that even if you have the right idea about bias, it can be hard to figure out where to get into the market sometimes. I guess I want to sleep at night but also to catch pips from the London Open.
If your trading methodology requires Fib retracements which are equal to or greater than 61%, there are days they can be very hard to find. Looking at today’s EUR/GBP, I see a couple of opportunities to go long on Fib retracements on a five minute chart between EST: 3:30 AM my time, and 5:10 AM. I can’t get up to scour five minute charts at 3:30 AM. One could have gone long of a Fib retracement off the 1H, but again this becomes guesswork if you have to sleep at night.
I agree with Bob above, that sixth candles in 5 bar formations can be very tricky, and to trade them I need to see a fairly strong fifth candle, without impending S/R right in front of me. Also I think the market tends to build up it’s weekly range during the middle of the week, so I would trade a sixth candle where the fifth candle was strong on a Wednesday. This sounds pretty odd, and there are exceptions.
Yesterday’s 5th candle in CAD/USD looked very tepid and had trouble written all over it for the bulls - btw, that short trade is looking pretty good right now HoG. Nice pin bearish pin forming after movement into (and now out of) the S/D sweet spot. For the S/D folks, would you typically wait on a real trade to go short around 1.0060, with a SL just above the tweasers in Jan we discussed? I hope it keeps heading south to your TP.
The Fiber candle looked a little better to me, and closed just above a fig yesterday I think, but I still held off on trading it.
I intend to keep the humor as I go, because that’s who I am (I think HoG might be a distant Scottish relative, given that our humor style is very similar), For however long I do decide keep this thread, I’m going to try to deliver better trading analysis, with the satire as a seasoning. It’s not that I’m aiming to post less attempts at humor, it’s more that I want the quality of my analysis to improve.
Not always. Say both trader a and trader b had 30 pip stops and 3 lots. Targeting 60 TP. Once price got to 1:1 (30 pips) trader a scaled out 1 lot and moved stop to BE. Trader b moved stop to BE. Price never reaches the 60 pips and reverses taking out both traders at BE but trader A banked 30 pips while trader b goes home with nothing
Just noticed a couple more really good comments. First PNR, no deleting. Secondly, really good question JL and glad you’re here. I will write a response later and it’s an important question. Just finishing lunch at my desk at work. After my little one goes to sleep tonight I will answer any questions (all other opinions / answers are definitely welcome) and see if I can find something to trade for tomorrow.
Which do you prefer???
Just as a matter of “taste” which inverted hammer do y’all prefer, or does it make any difference to you ?
Now I know that you could go down the line of answering that it all depends on where the candle has formed and price action and blah blah blah. But that isn’t the question. Question is, if either of the inverted hammers formed at a resistance zone, would you give more weight to the “Bull” inverted hammer, where price is up on the the open the candle…
Or the “Bear” inverted hammer…
Or do you give equal weight to both.
Unfortunately I won’t be around to read any answers tot hat this evening. The youngest and I are up in bed watching a DVD tonight because she has the cold. Actually, truth be told, she’s sound asleep and I’m still watching Despicable Me.
Let the demo UC trade run to see what happens, +20 just now.
Actually both charts posted above may be worth looking at a bit closer, but not just now, back to the dvd !!
Hi Horgarste
Music and how I trade…Lol NADA music, telephones, TV, loud noises and people talking while trading upset me. I like silence, the inner ticking, heartbeat is what I need to time and sych with the charts 
Bump, bump, bump deep in my core listening, breathing tuning into the heartbeat of the globe… hee heee I wish 
I would love to share some of my trading thoughts on your thread if you are happy for me to do so with a primary focus on the AUD/XXX and XXX/AUD pairs with thoughts on the NZD/XXX. XXX/NZD pairs and their correlation(s) to each other.
If you want me to lay out my reasons for the Antipodean currencies before I start that will be absolutely fine.
Most of my analysis is based on Elliott Wave Principals although I still have to get my wave identification down pat. 
On a side note, if anyone is interested in data that stretches back to 1915 I have available data for daily prices for the following currencies:
AUD
CAD
CHF
JPY
The caveat is that should you wish to use the data for any purpose other than personal study or your personal trading you will need to give credit to Mr Jim Goulding and write to him personally with an acknowledgement thanking him for the information and where you obtained the data. For those interested I can supply all relevant information including his website. Please PM me in the first instance.
Below is a Monthly shot of the AUD/JPY pair stretching back to August 2008 that may be of interest if you are happy for me to comment.
Just so that I cannot be prosecuted for copyright infringement the chart is a screenshot from the NetDania free access platform available on their website. Not able to stretch back this far with my current trading platform sadly.
The initial risk for both traders in your example is the same (3 lots). Both traders move their stops to BE. You have Trader A with a small profit on a position he closed out early by scaling out his positions – and hey, a profit is a profit – but under almost any other circumstances Trader B will come out way ahead, especially in the long run.
Looked at as separate trades (which, essentially, they are), Trader A is seeking only 1:1 on his first position and has no chance to improve upon his potential gains – ever. There are three options for this trade: 1) hit the stop loss, 2) hit BE or 3) hit a [B]maximum[/B] of 1:1.
For Trader B you have three options for the same trade: 1) hit the stop loss, 2) hit BE or 3) hit a [B]minimum[/B] of 1:1 (OR MORE).
Actually, the OR MORE part is the key, really. Should the trade go favorably beyond the initial 30 pips (where Trader A closes his position) by 60, 90, 200 pips or, dare I say it, more… let’s just say that catching one runner can make up for a lot of sins in this game.
Maximizing the amount of money riding on a runner doesn’t just add to profit, it multiplies the profit potential.
In the end I guess it all comes down to how one wants to trade, much like how one views baseball legends. Do you want to be Mickey Mantle or Pete Rose?
“If I had played my career hitting singles like Pete, I’d wear a dress.” [I]Mickey Mantle[/I] :21:
HoG,
I would give equal weight to both as they both meet my criteria for an inverted hammer, pin bar or whatever you want to call them (the close of the pin bar cannot exceed the high of the previous bar unless there is a gap [which doesn’t really concern forex too much]). In this case it looks like it is six of one, half a dozen of the other.
That just stretched my vocabulary to its very limits!
Some good questions and interesting things setting up in the market.
Overall I’m looking at Cable, Fiber and E/G, while trying to get some guidance from USDX. There are a couple of things I do to get a high level feel of a week, without it dictating an individual days bias, such as looking at COT in Pricecharts for Commercial extremes and understanding the the open position levels. I find looking at bond prices on Barcharts.com to be the easiest way to understand the bond (I guess I really mean the 2, 5, and 10, year treasuries.) I find Bloomberg to be a little convoluted, which is something I’ll have to get past eventually. These things I usually check on a weekend as a start of getting a general feel, but I don’t try to use daily.
I also like the weekly candles to see if they give a hint about bias for the week. Because I’m day trading right now not swing trading, I think about weekly ranges and how a week will play out. Where I’m going to go with all this, is that for Wednesdays candles, I’m bullish cable, bearish E/G (more bullishness for the pound) and a little uncertain about Fiber, but we’ll see.
Cable - Awesome looking bull Pinbar on a downtrend on the daily. My only concern is that we’re at 1.5667, and I’m a little worried about Cable hitting resistance either at or just above 1.57. I just wish todays price was starting at 1.5620. This is where I’m leaning towards entering an order later
Fiber - Would expect that it could go either way. Not going to trade Fiber tonight.
E/G - I’m seriously considering going long on the pound here, meaning shorting this pair. At a Fib level, just below a figure, looks like the weekly high was posted, and with the Pound likely to gain against the dollar tomorrow off the pin bar, I see lots of good reasons to sell Euros vs Pounds at the moment… Also looking at Market structure and a possible supply zone.
This are my initial thoughts looking at charts tonight. I will post any orders that I enter, and am planning to respond to folks nice enough to comment. I don’t want to rush, so if time is running short after the analysis, I will add some comments on the train ride to work tomorrow.