Price Action for the Un-medicated

Beginner Questions
1

It’s reaching the point where to be able to just relax and post price action trading ideas for discussion on Babypips, I’m going to need medication. All of the of the negativity and bashing and other angry jabs that have nothing to do with trading seem to be taking over lately. I’ve decided to start a thread to monitor my progress, write about trades, tools, concepts and various other relevant thoughts.

I will try to share what little I know. I will try to be a little funny. I’ll try to be helpful in pointing people toward the sources of information I use. This is a trade oriented thread, but I want it to be fun as well. If you want to mention that you like listening to Led Zeplin or Pink Floyd when you trade, go ahead and post… dude… Just put that out first please.

I’m asking myself, ‘how can I make this thread interesting enough to justify it’s presence on BP’? Hmmm. For one thing, I’ll keep a running total of the real dollar balance in my account. If it drops to zero, this thread will stop and I’ll be one of those people who fades from BP in a few months. If I increase my balance by a factor of 50, my real job will stop and I’ll be doing this full time. I will try to post at least one to three trading idea per week, and add some thoughts about trading tools here and there.

Rules:
-I am not qualified to teach people how to trade. On a good day my socks match. You don’t want to copy what I do. Let’s exchange ideas.
-This is not a pro mentor or an anti-mentor bashing thread. Please don’t do that here. If you don’t like this just ignore it.
-This is not a contest or competition, it’s a place where I am going to write about price action trading and related stuff, that I enjoy writing about, and hope other people enjoy reading and commenting. I think if I can get my balance to increase steadily, and it can be a little bit entertaining, then some might enjoy reading it.
-Be nice to each other (if anyone actually winds up posting here), some criticism is fine. If you want to ask what the heck was I thinking, or point out that something I wrote does not make sense, that’s on the OK side of the line. If you suggest that my parents were siblings, that’s on the not OK side of the line.
-Pop Culture references are fine, as long as I get them, keep it kind of simple.
-This is for all of us (more likely the one reader if I’m lucky enough to attract anyone here) to learn and share our knowledge. If my balance increases but my posts become very uninteresting to everyone, I will stop the thread. If after a short while it just seems lame, I will stop this thread.

[B]I’M ONLY GOING TO SAY THIS ONE TIME:[/B]
Very kind thanks to Michael Huddleston, The Inner Circle Trader. Were it not for the kindness you showed in teaching (at least) hundreds of strangers, how they can confidently approach the fx markets, I would probably not be trading today. Thanks to all of the mentors on Babypips as well as every person who takes the time to write a post, while hoping it will help others to become better traders. We all have things to learn and teach each other.

Tonight’s Balance: $5,051.

No trades planned for tonight.

I’m watching the USD/CAD to see if it stays a buy program. The high at 1.0450 (approximately 400 pips away) as hit in June 2012 if hit again, would be a 79% retracement of the 2010 high versus the 2012 low of .9632. I’d like to see the tweaser highs on the daily the last week of January taken out first. Will try to post a chart or two tomorrow night about this.

Not sure what Fiber wants to do this week yet. Really strong bear candle last week. Am planning to take a day or two before I consider going short hunting. Some bearish signs looking at the futures.

Also watching Cable for a feel as to where it seems to be going. Bullish signs according to the Commercial futures, but we’ll see this week. Seems like an interesting low just formed on the daily, but again we’ll see. Might be some decent price action on Tuesday / Wednesday at least.

2

Hello mate,

I really look forward to reading the thread and seeing your progress, Good luck with your trading, and I hope you get the start you want. This is what the forum should be about, day to day discussion on progress without any ego or aggression toward each other. I think this will be a good learning tool for many, as I usually find the way to improve methods ( in any industry) is to realise for your self where you have been going wrong or what you have been doing correctly.

I personally don’t use any indicators and I don’t trade the news, but I will try to post productively and in as much detail as my little brain allows on any trades we happen to share along the way and reasons for taking etc.

All the best,

CSM

3

Morning Hogarste

Pointless post here but just to say I’ll be looking in as often as possible. Dunno if that’s gonna be a good thing or a bad thing for your thread mind you, but I’ll look in anyway mate LOL

4

Kind thanks to the two posts above. That’s two more posts than I expected so far.

Running to work, but so far I am very interested in the move in the USD/CAD, and am wanting to see a little more bullishness from the dollar to start hunting. Am also very interested in Cable which has made a bearish move so far today. If 1.5630 is taken out to the down, I will hold off on buying. Market might be setting up the weekly low, again we’ll see.

Disapproving look from wife when I mentioned thread name…

Will try to post a chart or two tonight… After Dallas.

5

Subscribed.

6

I will subscribe and be back after another puff man.

7

Hi man,

Will follow this thread. Good luck mate.

Happy pippin

8

Looking forward to see where you take this :slight_smile: Will be watching along too :slight_smile:

9

Regards the USD/CAD Hogarste, I think we are now approaching quite an important resistance level. As for today we’ve reached the R2 Level where I personally tend to think price starts to get a wee bit exhausted even though it’s only been a move of around 70 ish pips on the day so far.

I’ll wait 'til we get a wee bit closer to resistance (1.0098) before I make a decision here

Apologies for the zones already marked on this chart are there from last week when I discussed the possibility of the up move with yunny

EDIT: Just as a little add on to the above, I remember RCarter once telling me that if London pushes a price significantly in one direction, New York tends to push it back. It’s been pretty much one way traffic so far during London, worth bearing in mind then for the NY session

10

Some thoughts coming tonight about five bar highs and lows, which is an important tool / pattern for trading that I think most of us use. I’m looking at the USD/CAD on the daily, as an example of what I mean. At the mmoment the Fiber D is at 1.3420, and looks like it’s in fourth of the five candles that make up a five bar low. That does not mean that I will trade it tomorrow automatically.

When I woke up today and saw that folks were actually reading this thread and that there were actually (bless you) comments, I started to think that I better find and post some winning trade ideas very quickly. I think what I’ll do is the opposite. I’m sure that in the course of a week I can find a couple of trades that make sense per my style of trading, and I will. However, I’m also going to focus more on quality and being selective. I think that one benefit for me (and hopefully others) of this thread is that my weaknesses as a trader will stand out. I welcome that. In a way, that makes anyone willing to offer critique my mentor and will help me to learn and get better.

It just occurred to me that some might actually find the name of this thread to be offensive. It started in my mind as ‘Price Action for the Sane’ and I changed it a couple of times. I was really just trying to find a cute funny thread title that might catch people’s eye. Lot’s of things going on on BP lately that have taken the focus off trading, and I just decided to try my hand at writing about trading, so I was only poking fun at the overall situation here lately - no offense intended. If it really bothers anyone, please let me know via PM, and I’ll consider asking the moderators to change it. Do realize that it’s called ‘Price Action for the Un-medicated’, not ‘Price Action from the Un-medicated’.

11

Maybe put a colorful neon signs at the top of your thread that will say “Go here…free adult beverages”. I assure you will attrack more traffic than anywhere else…It’s called “marketing”… :wink:

‘Price Action [B]for[/B] the Un-medicated’, not ‘Price Action [B]from[/B] the Un-medicated’. For and From? I don’t even know what’s the difference… maybe spelling?..lol. j/k.

Good-luck! I am sure you will do well!

12

Be assured Hogarste, anyone who finds the title of this thread offensive in any way shape or form, SHOULD be medicated…heavily…for the greater good of society.

It’s fine and I like it !

13

I will have to unsubscribe then as I after today I need to be medicated :wink:

14

Foobar

Can’t join in on this thread…

just nipping over the shop for a few more cans of medication :wink:

15

I like trading the fifth candle of five bar swing highs and lows if they make sense. I looked at CAD/USD Daily late Thursday night, and noticed what seems to be an accumulation pattern, bullish market structure, and the formation of a bullish pin-bar at point A, which is the third candle in a five bar low (being supported by the 20 period EMA). This would have been a good time to go long for some pips. In reality, I don’t trade this pair a lot, and although I missed (and considered trading on the fourth bar) an opportunity, and although it was a fairly obvious one, the positive thing that I can take from this, is that I saw it and considered it. There is always next time. I’d rather feel like I’m in sync with the market than not.

The problem is that as HoG mentioned we’re getting closer to a tweaser high, that I’d want to break through before going long here now. ‘NEW HIGH’ eclipsing ‘OLD HIGH’ while the low at ‘A’ not overtaking the low of either of the ‘B’s (ugh this sounds dry) are the reason for my view regarding bullish market structure. Also, today’s daily candle is just not that enticing at the moment.

I also did note that the dollar index is bullish, but about to run in to possible resistance on a retracement of 78.6%.
So no trade here yet.

Until I can read one of my posts that analyses the market and not feel guilty for boring people to near death, I will waive the no medication rule for everyone but Spuzzana (just kidding, have fun). However, this waiver does not include anything that’s hallucinogenic. Those of you who’ve read my prior posts on Babypips probably think I have that market cornered anyway. At the very least, please do not operate heavy machinery or drive while reading my market analysis.

CAD.jpg700×418 29.4 KB

No trades yet.

16

Listen, let’s be perfectly clear on one thing here. There is NO SUCH THING as analysis of a currency pair sounding “dry” on this site. It is, after all, the very reason we are all here in the first place. I for one enjoy reading how other traders are viewing the market and like to hear the thoughts rattling around in their heads (obviously that would be the thoughts rattling around in their heads BEFORE the medication kicks in !! )

But never worry or apologise for the perceived “dryness” of genuine analysis, after all the “excitement” and tangents we all went off on over the last couple of weeks, it’s actually a breath of fresh air to get back to talking about trading again, and you’re doing a good job of that so far so keep it up boy!!

Incidentally, just in case your wondering what on earth I’m doing still being awake at this ridiculous hour (1:30 am in Glasgow) I’m still studying for my up coming exam in March. Maybe if I’d put this much effort into studying trading over the last year…

17

Ok so here is a thing, since we are all here to learn (hopefully) to trade. Just to try to see what goes on in other people’s heads.

This is the current situation on the USD/CAD daily chart. As you can see, the tweezer top formed at a previous support level (1.0100). Round number and now resistance.

so if you WERE looking to trade this pair, what are you watching and what are you looking for??

If we zoom the daily chart in a bit you’ll see we are up on the open. (and you said your post was dry Hogarste??) So what are we looking for here and ho/why have we arrived at that thinking?

Are we waiting for price to break below yesterday’s close (green line) and short the pair?

Are we looking for price to break above yesterday’s high (red line) to go long?

But then surely you can’t go long until price pokes it’s head through resistance (pink line)

Just thought I’d throw this in to see what and how we’re all thinking

EDIT: ok just before I go to bed I’ll tell you what I did. I’ve put a sell in (demo account) at the break of yesterday’s close (1-0045) and targeted parity. Stop goes at the break of yesterday’s high (1-0090) for a 1:1 RR.

Decision made from 1hour and 4 hour charts. Too tired guys to get into too much more detail. It’s demo so take it for what it’s worth

18

When I look at your first chart starting with the high (20 or so candles in left to right) that works it’s way down to that low last year around September, I see the market trend being directed in a sell program, where the commercial banks were likely forcing price downward. I think of markets going up and down like a sideways S. Once price starts moving back up, and makes higher swing highs, without making lower swing lows (mostly), I see price being directed into a buy program or bullish market structure.

The trick is that I’m looking to day trade rather than swing trade this pair, so I try to find a way to time my buys and sells (right now buys) to be in the overall direction that the market is going in based on the dominant swings on the daily chart. So on the second chart you show, where you ask where I would buy in at, I think that between today’s open price and the pink resistance line there is the potential (you might see price heading into a supply zone made by those tweasers, I’m guessing) for price to stall a bit and retrace. However, if price could break through the pink line a bit and then retest it, I’d feel much more comfortable and see price moving towards its’ upside potential (which ultimately would be another supply zone.)

Friday’s really nice bullish candle was very predictable, given the five candle low formation and the bullish market structure. Now that we’re closer to the resistance, I want more proof that we’ll get over it, because as my wife will tell you, I am often wrong.

If my primary focus were S/D zones (reminding me of some interesting Skype calls with Eremarket last year) I think I might be looking for sells before that pink line is reached. It’s kind of funny I think; S/D traders want price to react down at the tweaser zone, and I’m not ready to buy yet because I want to make sure that tweaser zone fails before I do.

I want all of us to learn and enjoy it, so if my explanation is cloudy, please tell me.

19

There were a couple of interesting 5th candle opportunities offering the chance to make some pips, and move stop losses to BE, and let profits run. Specifically i’m talking about EUR/USD and EUR/GBP. When things go well for me, these are a big part of my trading diet. No trades yet. Admittedly I’m being very cautious, possibly overly so.

I thought about posting regarding E/G last night, though I had no plan to really trade it and I got confused trying to follow the plot on ‘Dallas’. There is great stuff in what Nikitas thread teaches. I usually don’t use the Communist ‘if yesterday was x …’ but if you have trouble finding entries based on Fibonacci retracements, I really like the idea of buying when price crosses over the daily open if you feel good about the daily bias. This is one reason why I feel that one should not limit ones self when it comes to learning.

We’re getting into the serious part of the week now. Please cut medication levels in half unless you’re following a prescription.

I’m going to stick with this thread for at least a month. I like the feeling of being accountable for the trades I make. If this becomes the dullest thread on BP, because I’m only taking a couple of trades each week, but my balance is moving in the right direction, then that’s fine with me.

20

Someone obviously has not seen my thread lol.

I honestly dont like to trade the fractal swings. As I tend to find that after a 5 bar swing the next candle tends to be against the intended direction of the market. Meaning you have missed most of the move. Well thats my opinion anyway not saying its right.

Good to finally see a thread with trading on it. I was beginning to think I was on the wrong site. I was starting to think I was somehow being redirected to babysoapoperas or something.