I’m enjoying this thread.
Hogarste you really seem to have taken a huge step in how you look at your trading.
I’ve spent a good few years reading about trading and generally trying to get my head around it until I realised that something’s only worth while if it’s useful to YOU!!
Support & Resistance, is it a key level to YOU.
Entry, find a reason that fills YOUR criteria and you’ll feel better about it.
Everything is about making it your own and developing a system or method around that, a framework if you will, that allows you to view the market in your own way.
Good luck with your challenge.
I’ll take any help I can get, and I really do appreciate the input, but despite living in NY, I am a lifelong Red Sox fan. I could never allow a NY hat on my head.
Everyone:
If anyone has an issue with this thread being located in NB Island, pleas do let me know and I will resubmit the request to have it moved. I know humor is a matter of perspective, so if this thread seems out of place, just let me know. As mentioned, I plan to discuss trade ideas, thoughts about trading and tools, with a little light heartedness thrown in.
Hogarste, tried to PM you my friend but a notice appeared saying you have to delete some of your old messages before you can receive any new ones.
To answer your question though, No, you haven’t, at any time, in any way.
Sorry just me being a little odd with all this other stuff. As I was leaving work it occurred to me that perhaps some folks would appreciate it If I kept this thread in a special area. I plan to have this thread aimed at analysis, humor, and see if I can turn the 5 into 10, and if I fail, then I’ll try to learn from it, and of course hide it from the wife… I’m happy keeping it wherever, I just briefly envisioned some thinking it was a bit silly for NB Island.
I agree with your post about people letting go of that fellow, as it’s time to move on and be positive about learning. There a some folks like yourself, who have made BP more fun for me, and I just wanted to be sure I had not stepped on any toes.
I actually think that NB island is the best place for this sort of thing. Without trying to offend you’re still learning, and learning “on the job” so to speak by doing what you’re doing. That to me is the best resource for newbies to see, what people are actually doing and how it’s working for them.
As for hiding it from the wife, that’s where I think your plan comes apart at the seems mate. Do you really think that when you hit it big she ain’t gonna notice that bling wrapped around your neck or the Aston Martin wrapped around your backside?
Ok folks, tonight will be celebrating Valentines with Mrs Hogarste. I told her we would have a long talk about trading. I explained that it was likely that the market could see a strong bullish up-trend that would overtake resistance levels, but she said that in her experience looking at past market performance, it was more likely that there would be a tepid pin-bar followed by a retracement. We’ll see…
Looking forward to posting some charts over the WE regarding a missed Fiber move this week, and what I’ll try to learn from it, as well as explaining how I’m going to try to make the best of doubling my account the next two years. Have a good night folks
2Y2X (Is this pretentious? 2 Years, two times the account balance?)
Hello dude
I am really enjoying your thread. Nice to see your all hard works over here. Best of luck to you.
I really do appreciate that, and I am happy if anyone is reading and enjoying. I feel that I have a responsibility as someone starting a thread on BP to add value to this community. I AM NOT A TRADING TEACHER. But like everyone, I do have some ideas that I’d like to throw out there for folks to kick around.
Bit of a slow start so far, but things will get better. This weekend I’m planning to disect a trade that I did not take, as well as explaining how learning to use the five bar setup has helped me. The weekly (though for bias I usually use the daily) candle for the Euro is a good example of this. Going into this week on the weekly charts, we saw a potential for a 5th bar formation in a high (bearish), which did happen it seems this week. However it was also tricky, as the action this week was up and down, and required patience for the bears.
I was a bit tastless with the inuendo joke last night and appreicate the charity ‘like’ from D-pip. Sometimes that internal filter in my brain that tells me what not to post does not function so well.
A couple of quick thoughts:
Fiber weekly looks somewhat bearish, while the dollar index is showing a decent bullish pin-bar on the weekly. British pound long contracts increased by 16K, while shorts decreased by 173 contracts. It’s showing net long contracts of 33K, which is close to the high point from last August-ish. Meanwhile Cable price is at 79% of the retracement of the May 12’ swing low to the 2012 high. This looks like price is being set up to move higher. I know I got bit last week trying to go long on Cable via a pin-bar and a psychic feeling and tried to call it confluence, but…
The problem is that for those of us who like Market Structure, looking at a 4H Cable chart, we’d probably want to see at least 1.5690 (really meaning 1.5700) taken out before we go long hunting. I know that everyone (probably The Royal Family included) is bearish on the Pound, but we are nearing the bottom of a two year range. Looking at the weekly candle, does make it harder to be bullish however. That is one big ugly bear candle last week.
Regarding Cable, I’m probably closer to looking for longs then shorts, but it needs to either prove that it loves me with some bullish action (ouch… not literally), or pack up and move out by breaking support lows around 1.54 and below.
Wouldn’t be suprised if the cable falls a little lower, nothing doing new-wise until Wednesday when we get some unemployment data, so maybe a sluggish slide down into 1.54.
I’d like to see solid moves to the upside, the 1.5690/700 fig that you mention looks some serious resistance on the 4hr from the last couple of weeks.
Commercials have only been net long for 3 weeks and seasonally we tend to see some sort of low in February, consider also we’re only 3/400 pips from some major lows from last year.
Ok, so I’ve waited 2 days to ask this…bullish up trend or tepid pin ba…no on second thoughts, I don’t want to know LOL!
Well, Double meaning 
Hogarste please do not be riddled with uncontrolable self guilt that I have just spent 15 mins over my Sunday morning breakfast writing you a PM just to discover you still haven’t cleared your PM inbox and can’t receive any more PM’s until you do. 
Check your email inbox around 6 hours after 9am UK time. IF your PM inbox was clear of course, you’d know WHY you need to do this, but it isn’t, so you don’t, you’ll just need to have faith that it’s the right thing to do LOL !!
They are zip files incidentally, another 3 more emails to come, but don’t hold your breathe mate, each mail takes around 6 hours to upload and send.
HoG
Hey Folks,
Several things I want to post about in the course of a couple of posts.
I mentioned my own challenge of turning $4,950.80 into $10K within (or by) two years. I will post my log regularly as things move along, as well as account statements to prove I’m being truthful. I will use basic risk management, and keep the risk to a reasonable level. To me that means no more then 2-3% per trade usually, and sometimes 1 - 2.% NO GAMBLING. I am doing this to prove to myself and anyone with any interest, that the variety of tools I’ve learned do work, and that I can implement them. I’m not going to post a giant list of rules, but I do plan to write about trades I take and some I don’t, and am hoping that this will be an interesting thread to read and a place for us to share knowledge. I’m going to identify the methods used in each trade and relate them to a teaching source. This will no be to make a statement about any teachers. It’s more about how I can implement what I know at this point. In honesty, If this turns out to be a very successful challenge, I will happily acknowledge that it’s thanks to the people I’ve learned from. If I fail, the fault is mine alone. This is not about ego or bragging.
I’ve mentioned the Cable with regard to this week, and am going to be taking a look at Fiber shortly. I’m also going to be keeping an eye (and perhaps trading) several different pairs.
2Y2X, because good trading is all about the catch phrase.
Per the request above, I won’t give too many details about the trade from Valentines day. I’ll just say that the trade was based off the 1M chart, rather than multiple re-test of levels on the 4H.
Next post will be a look at the Euro.
The Fiber - Are we in an up-trend or a down-trend? Well, I see a steady up-trend since July of 2012. In February, we’ve been trending down so far, and if we’re really saying that this is now a down trend, the 4H char would help support that. We ae approaching a zone, that could represent demand / support. I think to go long, at the very least I’d want to see 1.3480 taken out. I’m a little nervous shorting inside this 50 pip zone, between 1.3320 and say 1.3250 (70 pips.) However, for the right re-tracement above this zone, say below 1.3480, I would be looking to short. Now I would take the risk of a short or long on the 5th bar of a 5 candle high / low from various places, because I like this pattern.
With Cable out of whack / correlation, I also look at an overlay chart of Fiber and the USDX, trying to find divergence, where one pair is making a higher high, or lower low, while the other pair is not doing the opposite. I do see divergence on the 1H, with USDX maing a higher high, and the Fiber failing to make a lower low. This might be bullish for the Fiber, but I dont like trading Mondays unless I’m really sure. It does make me curious enough to look at a Slow Stochastic on a 1H chart. I see Fiber price failing to make a lower low, while the indicator is looking at making a slightly lower low. Am wondering if Monday’s bias might be bullish. I don’t mind missing trades. I don’t mind being wrong.
I’ve heard it said “I don’t know what price is going to do, I only know what I’m going to do when it get’s there.” That is a great expression. Some fellow on FF, said to identify ideal locations to buy and sell from, and wait, just wait.
For tonight, I’m sitting on my hands watching. This will be the dullest thread on BP.
2Y2X
4,950.80
Tried to PM you again mate, empty your PM inbox.
Just to tell you anyway that 3rd email was being uploaded to you now, takes around 6 hours. Let me know if the first two mails came though ok
Sorry G. I moved all the messages in my in-box to text. I also did get the third of the three -thanks, and also I just read your email:-) I’m going to post a follow up regarding the LO today. The thread idea you mentioned regarding LO, sounds great. Glad you grabbed some pips.
Slow market today with the holiday in the US, but how could I have made money today with the directional bias. Entries are frequently based on Fibonacci retracements.
I took the Fibs off the chart below, because they made the chart look messy. If you Fib points A:B and entered the market at C, you would have had the chance (more importantly, I would have had the chance) to make fifty or so pips. Again, I like taking some profit at 25-30 pips and moving to breakeven, because I want to try to make some money when I’m wrong. If you had a Fib of C D, and entered at E, you could have taken some pips and still be ahead at the moment. Not sure I’d stay in the market today.
In summary, this is how I’m going to try to grow my equity (this is one of the primary thought processes), but there will be challenges. Even if you have the right directional bias, I agree that you need to be watching the market to make money, and with me sleeping at LO, it’s going to be a slow process. There are many ways to trade, and I’m interested and open to learning as much as I can. However, I do believe that the thought process used to determine bias, and methods for getting into the market today, are reasonable (and will prove to be profitable if applied consistently) ways to trade.
Reminder: the red trend line was to show divergence between price and the indicator from the chart above. See proof of challenge starting equity on chart as well.
2Y2X
BBC News - Pound continues to weaken against dollar and euro
It’s in the public domain now, maybe it is time to go long on the cable. :27: