Hi Everyone, thanks for reading my journal!
I’ve been trading for the past two years and really haven’t had too much success BUT I think I’m finally on to something. I’m going to try my hand at strictly price action trading - along with support and resistance lines.
I’m going to try to get in the habit of posting on here every day about market conditions, possible trade setups, and entries.
Feel free to comment and let me know what you think!
GBP/USD
There’s clear resistance line at ~1.67524 and a support level at ~1.62515 on the weekly chart. There’s a screen shot below.
Zooming in to the daily chart, it looks like the price is ranging between the ~1.67524 resistance and a support line at ~1.66224. The price looks pretty jumpy in the range so I think I’m going to wait for a solid breakout signal before hopping into this one!
EUR/USD
There’s a resistance level at ~1.38307 and a support at ~1.34780 on the weekly chart. It looks like the price has been ranging pretty hard between these levels since September!
Zooming in further to the daily chart, the price has been ranging between resistance at ~1.38307 and support at ~1.36921 for about 2 weeks. The price may bounce off the lower level within the next few days, or it may bust right through. Either way…maybe it’ll present me with a decent setup!
AUD/USD
Looks like there’s a clear support line at ~0.86614 and a resistance-ish level at ~0.90754 on the weekly chart. Man, the price has done some really screwie things around the resistance level!
If we zoom in to the daily chart, we can see that the price is headed up in a range between the resistance at ~0.90754 and a daily support at ~0.88957. It looks like the price will hit the resistance within the next few days so I’m thinking if I get a nice reversal signal I’m going to be hopping on that gravy train!
EUR/JPY
Check this out! On the weekly chart, the price just recently broke through LONG LONG long long long term resistance at ~138.823. It then retraced and the resistance has become support.
Let’s zoom in for a closer look, shall we? The price has been bouncing around the old resistance (now support) at ~138.823 and new resistance at ~141.236. I’ve been reading a lot about price action and I know that price has a tendency to break through resistance, come back to test it…then go flying off in one direction or the other. I’m going to be watching the price very closely to see if it breaks through this new resistance. I have a feeling it’s going to too, considering that it broke long term resistance not long ago.
USD/JPY
Looking at the weekly chart, there’s a long term resistance at ~101.493 that the price just broke! It then retraced and is testing it right now!
Now, I’m not a huge pattern guy but this one is too pretty to pass up! There’s a perfect ascending/symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart! The price broke high and has been marching up ever since.
Let’s zoom in to the daily. Now, the tested the old resistance (now support) and is bouncing around between it and new resistance at ~102.722. I’m looking for the price to break this new resistance and come back and test it…that’s when I’ll go long!
USD/CAD
It looks like there are two resistance/support lines on the weekly as of now. One at ~1.09048, and one that’s much more well defined at ~1.06715.
Zooming into the daily chart, we can see that the price has been ranging pretty hard between the ~1.09048 and the ~1.11980 marks. I’m looking for the price to either rebound off the support or to bust right through it. If history is any inaction though, it’s going down.
SIDE NOTE: I remember I went to Canada with my family pre-9/11. We got almost $0.50 on the dollar when we exchanged our money! Now the dollar only has $0.09 on the Canadian dollar. Jeez the dollar has really taken a hit over the last decade! C’mon, USA…pull it together!
NZD/USD
It looks like the price is ranging between support at ~0.80600 and resistance at ~0.85543.
Let’s zoom in on the daily. Hmm…looks like the price just broke through a resistance level at ~0.83900. I’m guessing it’s probably going to continue to march up until it hits that weekly resistance and then turn around. Of course it could bust right through. Either way, it should present a nice trade. I’ll be watching this SOB closely.
5-6-14
EUR/USD
Some VERY interesting things are happening with the euro/dollar. It looks like it finally broke some long term resistance at ~1.38307. This could provide a nice breakout trade in the upcoming days. I’m a tad weary about entering now though…if it is a breakout, the price will come back to test the level. I need to watch for a false break so I’m going to wait until the price action confirms where the price is going to go.
AUD/USD
It looks like the Aussie/dollar broke the resistance at ~0.90754. This could mean a possible break out, but the more likely case is a downturn. Note the 200 SMA just above the price. I’m guessing I’ll see a short signal soon, once the price retreats below the resistance again.
EUR/JPY
…and there it is, I totally called it yesterday!! (not to get ****y). The price broke right through the resistance at ~141.236. Now all I have to to is lie in wait for the price to come back to test the level. If it does and shows it’s ready to go up again it’s ALL ABOARD THE GRAVY TRAIN. We’ll see though.
USD/JPY
I knew it!! The price busted right through the resistance at ~102.722. I was pretty sure it was going to continue upward considering that symmie triangle and the fact that the price had just retraced and tested a new support line. Like the euro/yen, I’m going to wait for the price to come back and test the new support. After that happens, I’m gunna ride that sucker like it’s a cheap Vietnamese *****!
NZD/USD
It looks like the price is testing some long term resistance at ~0.85543. It would just be rainbows and sunshine up my ass if I saw a nice pin bar form on this tomorrow! That would all but guarantee a downward turn. We’ll see.
Some very exciting things are about to happen! Several pairs appear poised for shorting. I’ll check back tomorrow.
Psu
Good stuff. Keep it going
Thanks, brutus! I appreciate the encouragement!
FXCM is doing their weekly maintenance today so I won’t be able to do any analyzing, but I thought I’d write down the reasons why I want to get better at currency trading. This is for me, no one else, so I don’t care if you think it’s a waste of time.
Basically, I want the lifestyle of a trader. I love the entrepreneurial aspect of creating your own wealth. Actually, I’m coming off a failed start-up that I founded after college so it’s nothing new to me. I loathe the idea of a 9-5 job and feel it’d be a waste of my life. In fact, I recently had a personal experience with this concept. You see, my dad is retiring this year but almost died back in January thanks to a heart condition. He’s fine now, thank god, but he would have spent the past 35 years of his life working and not enjoying it at all!! It would have been really tragic had he passed away on the cusp of retirement.
I don’t want that to be me. I want to take the hour or so per day to analyze the markets and to write down my thoughts (an activity that I really enjoy), and I want to spend the rest of my time playing golf, or snowboarding, or working out, or mountaineering, or learning something new…basically enjoying my life!
I know I can get there. I have a small $500 account now that I want to use as a proof of concept. Like I said, I’m recently out of work and looking for a job as a engineer, so hopefully I’ll be making enough to put at least $10,000 - $20,000 in my trading account by 2015. After then, hopefully it won’t be long before I can sustain myself solely on my trading account!
Has anyone else had an experience like this? Does anyone here use trading as their main source of income? I’d love to hear about your experiences!
[QUOTE=“PSUdenv;610605”]FXCM is doing their weekly maintenance today so I won’t be able to do any analyzing, … [/QUOTE] I have FXCM also. On weekends i sometimes go thru forex withdrawal. I then go to sites that always have charts. Fxstreet has a good live chart section 24/7, and NetDania makes a great mobile app with charts 24/7.
You’re reasons are pretty much exactly the same reasons that I have for wanting to be a trader! The idea of working 9-5 for the rest of my life to make someone else richer sickens me. I’m in trading not just for the money but for the lifestyle, the freedom it gives you that actually lets you have time to enjoy life to the full!
EUR/USD - No clear price action signals
GBP/USD - Tight Range, too tight to make any profit on
EUR/JPY - No clear price action signals
USD/JPY - No clear price action signals
USD/CAD - No clear price action signals
NZD/USD
I had been hoping for a nice pin bar but unfortunately, it never came to fruition. Instead, the kiwi/dollar printed the dreaded doji (specifically an evening star). Now, some people may consider the doji to be an entry signal BUT NOT ME! It’s screwed me too many times before and i know better. All it means is that the market was perfectly neutral over that period. The price could still go up or down so I’m going to wait on this one. I’m hoping for a short signal tomorrow though.
AUS/USD
YEAH BABY!! Look at this beautiful little gem! I’d say that’s a textbook pin bar right there! Couple that with the resistance level at ~0.91410 AND the 200 SMA and it’s a short signal if i ever saw one!
I’m going to mull over just how to manage this one in these next few hours before the market opens but it’s a safe bet that I’m going short short short. More on that set-up later.
What do you guys think of aud/jpy? (Sorry no pict)
Hey, brutus…I usually just pay attention to 7 pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/USD, and NZD/USD) but I decided to check out the aussie/yen for ya!
The daily chart looks pretty solid - the same good pin bar at a resistance line, as the aussie/dollar
Looking at the weekly chart…the price appears to be ranging between support and resistance
Honestly, it looks like a pretty safe set up to me…but not as safe as the aussie/dollar at the moment. If you look at the weekly chart for the AUD/JPY pair, the price is above the 200 SMA, which may indicate an upward trend. Conversely, on the aussie dollar, the weekly price appears to be below the 200SMA, on a downward trend. The price on the daily chart for the aussie/yen is also above the 200SMA where the price for the aussie/dollar is below it.
That being said, that pin bar looks even better than the one on the aussie/dollar and I’m all but certain the price will recede a bit giving the opportunity to make some good pips!
Thanks for the analysis! I was thinking it was close to the aud/usd. If anything, good for grabbing some pips continuing off Friday’s momentum short.
No problem!
I’m glad you find my analysis useful but definitely take it with a grain of salt. I haven’t been terribly successful in the past (although I’m feeling better about this approach). No one really knows with any certainty where the price will go…it’s ultimately a gamble.
Alrighty, I’m officially short on the Aussie/Dollar as of about two hours ago! When trading opened, I saw that the price had already dropped, so I waited for about an hour and it receded back up a bit, so I entered at a slightly better price than I would have had I entered as soon as I could have.
My stop is above a 4 hour resistance line and my TP is above the nearest daily support level. My R:R is a hair above 1:3 at this point, but I’ll be happy with anything above 1:2. Hopefully I can manage this trade well and take some good pips out of this one! More to come!
