Cough cough LOSER cough
Well, my kiwi/dollar trade didn’t work out. It’s my only true loser this month so far, oh well! Losing is part of the game. Hopefully I’ll win my next trade so this won’t hurt my win percentage too badly.
Last night, I had placed an entry order on the euro/yen. It was apparently triggered at some point. Here it is:
The price came dangerously close to my SL too…whew, that was a close one! It’s in the green now, lets hope it keeps going that way!
Well, that’s the end of another trading day. It looks like there are really no entry opportunities at this time.
The euro/dollar is on it’s way up…just like I thought last week when I was holding a long position - too bad I don’t have any balls, otherwise I’d be up almost 100 pips on that.
The cable is in consolidation, printed a doji today.
The aussie/dollar is testing some resistance and a 200 SMA, if it prints a pin bar tomorrow, that’ll signal a short entry.
I’m not sure exactly what the kiwi/dollar and dollar/CAD are doing right now.
The dollar/yen may go up - in fact, I believe it will…but not enough to risk any capital.
I’m still long on the euro/yen…it’s going well, much better than my kiwi/dollar long went over the weekend! Here’s a pic of it below. If it goes up much more, I’m going to move the SL up to above the entry just to ensure I don’t lose any capital. The price is up approximately 0.5R right now.
CURSES - Foiled again!
My euro/yen trade didn’t work out. Luckily, I had moved my stop up to a resistance level which happened to be just 4.4 pips below my entry…so I really didn’t lose anything. I’m still up 1R and almost 60 pips on the month. Still, It’d be nice to win a little more often.
I definitely need to try and refine my entry strategies to be a bit more selective of only the best trades. Hopefully I’ll get another good signal soon. I think the aussie/dollar may turn south pretty soon, we’ll see. I’ll do another market watch update at 5 after the NY trading day closes.
I’m bored right now so I think I’m gonna do a little market analysis.
First the euro/dollar
It looks like there is a clear resistance ling at ~1.37090. A reversal signal at this mark would definitely signal a long entry. The weekly and daily charts are both above the 200SMA so I think this would be a pretty safe trade if it works out.
The Cable
The cable hasn’t been my friend lately but here it is, none the less. It looks like the weekly price broke through some long-T resistance at ~1.63061 and is now on its way back down to test it.
Looking at the daily chart, the price does indeed appear to be on its way back down. It looks like there’s a resistance line about 50 pips below that weekly resistance line so I’d guess the price may print a reversal signal at the lower resistance line. We’ll see what happens early next week probably.
Aussie/Dollar
Looking at the weekly chart, it looks like the resistance at ~0.88924 had held for quite a while.
It looks like the daily price is bouncing between that resistance and a support line at ~0.91314. I’m hoping the price will go down to that resistance and print a nice reversal signal. I’d be hesitant to go short on this just based on the weekly chart. I’m going to wait for a bullish signal.
EUR/JPY
There’s definitely a resistance level right at ~140.780. I took a long position on this last week, which really didn’t go anywhere. I’m still thinking the price is going to rebound above this resistance but I’m gunna wait for some clear price action.
USD/JPY
The price is definitely keeping a resistance line at ~101.219 and there appear to be two support lines: one at ~102.699 and another at ~103.388. The price seems to be testing the former support. I’m not sure how I’d feel about a short, I’d be much more comfortable with going long actually. I was actually waiting for a solid price action signal before going long but the price shot up before printing a solid one. Oh well…there will be plenty more opportunities.
Kiwi/Dollar
There appears to be a pin-bar forming on this sucker atm. If this holds up, a long position doesn’t seem like too bad an idea! I’m gunna check back in a few hours and see if the pattern holds up.
USD/CAD
The dollar/canadian looks like it’s printing a short signal for today. If this keeps up, I think I may short it. It may be a better play than the canadian dollar actually considering that it’s at a resistance level. However, it would be counter-trend, which has burned me in the past so we’ll see in a few hours.
Got my entry order in for a short of the USD/CAD. Below is a 4H chart of the entry. A pin bar was printed on the daily chart so I’m trying to short at a better price than the daily close. My goal is a 1:2 R:R for now. Hopefully this trade will work out, that’d be fantastic!
Ok, regardless of whether I lose this trade or not, I had to put this in here…
In the future, I absolutely need to put my entry at the 50% level of the pin bar. As you can see, the next bar went up to that 50% level before retracting. I’ve noticed this pattern before too. Rarely does the next bar not retract to at least 50%.
USD/CAD, why have you forsaken me?!
Dramatic Monday morning over here. Kinda frustrating I didn’t win this trade. I need to keep things in perspective though. This month, I’ve won one trade, lost one, and broken even on the rest (including this one). So far, I’m +1R, so at least I’m not losing! That was my first step i guess, get in the green. This month isn’t over though so maybe I can get another +2R, that’s be fantastic!
Just took a long position on the euro/yen. It looks like the price is down on a trend line right now, so this may be the cheapest price for a while.
I’m a little apprehensive considering that I’ve only been truly right once this month! I do understand that you can’t be scared to trade though…I think the price is going to go up, so I’m putting my money where my mouth is. There was a nice pinnie a few days ago and that trend line is pretty solid so hopefully I’ll be good.
Ok, so three posts ago, I addressed this issue for myself but it apparently still hasn’t stuck.
Yet again, the price seems to have gone down before it went up. I need to start taking advantage of that and stop buying the pair at market on the closure of a bar. The problem is I have a fear of missing out on a trade if I don’t enter at market…that the price is just gunna explode up. But, when does that really ever happen? If I waited for the price to retrace to some 50% of the previous bar sure, MAYBE i’d miss 10% or 15% of some trades, BUT the trades I do enter will be less risky and more profitable. Damn, this is a hard game to master!
Whelp, I lost my euro/yen trade. I didn’t lose so much as close out the position…it was never really going my way.
Needless to say, I’m quite frustrated with myself. I was only really right once this month. Actually, I’ve made 7 trades. I only won one but still broke even! I guess my money management is pretty good. At any rate, I need to make some changes.
First, I accepted a very decently paying job offer last week and start on April 1st! I’m excited about the job but also excited that it does look like I’ll easily be able to beef up my account with $10,000 by 2015. I’ll do that only IF I can prove to myself that I am a profitable trader…no need to burn through ten grand otherwise.
Second, I’ve decided to focus on just the EUR/USD. There are threads on this site (and others) devoted entirely to this pair. I’m sure it’ll be much easier to focus on just one pair and to become an expert on it. I think this will help improve my trading. Also, with a full-time job, I’ll have way less time to focus on the market anyway. I want to learn how it behaves and acts and to have a good handle on it at all times. Once I become successful, I’ll expand to the cable and to other majors.
Third, I need a trading plan. Now, I’ve always had entries and exits kinda-sorta defined in my head but now, I want to have a concrete plan that I can write down and really hold myself accountable to. I’m planning on writing a post entirely about it later on.
OK, so I did a little soul searching and read a ton about trading and re-visited many different strategies and indicators.
In the past, I’ve experimented with the Ichimoku indicator, but I don’t think I really took the time to understand it and appreciate it. Having looked at it again, I think I’m gunna give it another try. It gives very clear signals as to whether or not a market is trending or not, and in which direction. It seems to be pretty accurate as to where resistance levels are located too.
Basically, I like the clearness of the signal and feel it will be a good strategy, so I’m going to try it out over the original 7 pairs that I started my experiment with (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, and CAD/USD). I am going to make sure the daily price is trending with confirmation from each of Ichimoku’s three signals. Then, I’m going to wait for a pullback and use the 4 H chart to enter the trade.
GBP/USD
Although there’s not a clear trend just yet, the cable is definitely something to watch. The price has just broken the Kumo cloud, but the Tenkan has yet to. Also, the Chikou has not broken the price 26 periods in the past.
AUD/USD
Now, the AUD/USD looks like it’s in a bullish trend. The Tenkan is above the Kijun and both are above the kumo. The Chikou is definitely above the kumo and the past price as well, so there’s trend confirmation.
I definitely am trying to get in at a bargain though. Looking at the 4H chart, I’m going to wait tfor the price to pull back to either the kijun or the kumo to give me a good long entry price.