I though I would create a journal for myself and others who are not sure about what trade to take so I will be posting my ideas here, my mistakes and things that I do well and things that I dont. I have been trading for a while (more that 2 years) but I hardly post on Babypips although its home page is one of the resources I use in my trading and just wanted a platform to hold myself to account for the trades that I take as well as you guys can hold me to account for the trades . which is why I put this thread on a public platform such as babypips.com
Since this is a swing/position trading journal there wont necessarily be daily updates but we will be updating on a weekly basis.
Most trades will be for a duration of about a month or longer obviously depending on market conditions .
Most of the trade ideas will be based on a combination of economic and technical information
I trade the majors , crosses , commodities , indexes ONLY so thats what will be discussed most of the time in this thread
Keep trading simple therefore there is a less of a risk of mistakes
THREAD OFFICIALLY STARTS ON THE 1ST JUNE 2018 COMMENT IF YOU IN AND LETS DO THIS!!!
RULES FOR POSING IN MY JOURNAL
1)If you want to comment on something or share your trade idea in relation to the pair,commodity or indices please make sure that your statement is accompanied by a chart so as to illustrate you point or dont bother at all. 2) Please treat everyone with respect and remember that this is my journal and the title explains the technique so dont post irrelevant information , but you can post your technique and charts here as long as you dont use indicators or just MA as indicators are formulated on price anyway. 3) Lets all keep to English in the comments 4) Please if you want to ask something or comment please make you made your way through the Babypips school of pipsology first to make sure its not covered there so we dont repeat ourselves** 5) Lets make pips!!!
The day has finally arrived lets look at a very interesting commodity we are looking at WTI OIL A.K.A US OIL , now as we know according to news that OPEC , more specifically Russia and Saudi Arabia are planning on increasing production and are due to make a decision this month of June , not to only make up for a loss in Iranian oil due to sanctions, but also due to pressure from non oil producing nations more particularly the developing nations such as India , Brazil and China that are worried about their own inflation and global growth as this will most likely impact negatively on their economies
Another factor driving the oil price down has been the strength of the USD as a strong USD is negative for commodities such as oil as the price of oil is quoted in USD and it means that oil and other commodities become more expensive for countries to purchase oil as they first have to covert their local currency into USD as well as increasing production of oil in the US with the US adding more and more rigs to their production
One last thing that indicates a bearish trend when it comes to oil is the commercial net longs on the COT report that comes out every week has been dropping for 8 straight weeks!
As you can clearly see on the chart price peaked near the $73 mark and has been dropping ever since the news about an increase in production came out , it took a bit f a pause (we all know markets don’t move in straight lines) and formed what seems to be an inverse pennant on the daily time frame and the rule with this pattern is that a breakout will be as long as the pennant handle and also it will be in the same direction as the pennant handle( also know as the impulse)
As a result of the above mentioned analysis I am looking for WTI oil to move further south towards the $60 mark in the near to medium term future , which also happens to be a zone of major resistance on the daily , weekly and monthly chars.
OPEC has raised the output levels but they they haven’t explicitly stated by how much they plan to raise the output by with some economists speculating that that it would be between 500 000 - 700 000 barrels of oil instead of the expected output increase of 1 000 000 barrels. Prices shot up on these news on June 22 and I pulled the trigger and closed the trade as factors that made me enter the trade were looking rather blurry. I made a ± 30 pip profit which is not bad at all
I am still looking to sell WTI oil but I will wait for a better entry point I will wait for the market to retest the $73 Dollar mark and look for reversal candles/fundamentals to place my sell orders but for now I will be sitting on the sidelines , the USD is also looking vulnerable due to trade concerns so this should also boost commodities , mostly OIL and GOLD.
I will continue to monitor this set up over the next few weeks to look for another bearish entry as crude markets remain tight and pressures on global growth and how it is affected by a high oil price still exist and the expected increasing demand for oil in the second half of 2018 would also be an influencing factor .
Remember the aim of trading is not to be right 100% of the time but to ensure that you wins exceed your losses and don’t be afraid to change your mind when the trade goes against you or where market conditions change as I have done with this oil trade
