Our next pair to watch is the UsdCad…
On the monthly time frame (tf), we see price retracing to a strong resistance level as seen by past actions at this level. Price broke the level and retraced back to it, before a big dip, then retraced again and then another dip…and presently we have a third retest of this level…will it hold, giving us another dip? or will it break and announce a bullish run?
On the weekly tf, we see price clearly showing its inability to break this ceiling and the last closed candle is showing signs of bullish weakness at a retest of the resistant level…
On the daily tf, we see a change in trend orientation from bullish to an emerging bearish trend (price breaks the 1.2361 low, thus making a lower low), then retraced to 618 level and gives us a fakey candle formation. The low of this fakey formation is also at the same area with the previous low (point C).
We’ll watch or set a pending order to go short at 1.2360
Stop Loss will be at 1.2585
First Tp level will be at 1.1700 region…and we’ll keep trailing from there or as the market dictates.
Our next pair to watch is the UsdCad…
On the monthly time frame (tf), we see price retracing to a strong resistance level as seen by past actions at this level. Price broke the level and retraced back to it, before a big dip, then retraced again and then another dip…and presently we have a third retest of this level…will it hold, giving us another dip? or will it break and announce a bullish run?
On the weekly tf, we see price clearly showing its inability to break this ceiling and the last closed candle is showing signs of bullish weakness at a retest of the resistant level…
On the daily tf, we see a change in trend orientation from bullish to an emerging bearish trend (price breaks the 1.2361 low, thus making a lower low), then retraced to 618 level and gives us a fakey candle formation. The low of this fakey formation is also at the same area with the previous low (point C).
We’ll watch or set a pending order to go short at 1.2360
Stop Loss will be at 1.2585
First Tp level will be at 1.1700 region…and we’ll keep trailing from there or as the market dictates.
I’m short USDCAD around the 1.236 area. Same logical thinking as you… although I don’t tend to use the monthly chart. Maybe I don’t hold my positions as long as you do but the weekly is a must. It’s one of the things than turned me into a profitable trader! It’s good to see someone else with similar to thinking as me. A lot of traders base their decisions from indicators!
Nice meeting you davenz…
The use of indicators is not totally bad, but must be done with a lot of caution and thorough backtesting of the indicators parameters. But all the same, there’s nothing compared to price action trading.
Hope to see more of your posting here…
Yeah, don’t get me wrong - I, too, use indicators… but I just don’t place my trades solely based on what the indicators are saying. I use price action, then use the indicators to confirm my thinking and then refer to price action on a smaller time frame for an entry.
I agree. The 1.2000 level is definitely a strong area. It’s held support/resistance dating back to 2005 - 2007. Although I’ve now closed my short position, I’m keeping USDCAD on my watchlist for a potential buy for sure!
EurUsd blasted through our first anticipated resistance and gave us massive pips…400+. Now our next resistant level to watch will be 1.146 area…if it blasts thru this, then we might be netting about 800 pips on this trade. Stay tuned to this page for more updates and more trade calls.
Here is another pair we are looking at…the EurJpy.
On the monthly tf, we see price at a resistance/sell zone…also we see price going up, but the MACD indicator heading down (MACD divergence) which is an early hint of price coming down…
On the weekly tf, we see price broke the previous low 134.125 (giving us an early indication of a change in trend orientation from bullish to bearish) and its now retracing. the last closed weekly candle shows sign of bullish exhaustion.
On the daily tf, we see price actively doing a bullish ABCD…so we lay our trap and patiently watch for trap to play in and give us a bearish start indication…(remember your PDF file always in this game)…wanna know what PDF means?..You CANNOT succeed without them in fx trading.
For an aggressive but relatively safe and early entry, you can look at the 4hr tf…Here we see one of our highly effective reversal candle formation…Fakey cf…and the entry point of this cf, 139.45…also coincides with the break on 4hr tf of the resistant zone…
Aggressive early entry on 4hr…You can watch the daily tf to join the train if you dont trade the 4hr or lower tf…(i hardly trade lower than the daily tf nowadays)…
The daily tf closed with a fakey candle formation…
Entry will be at 138.65
Stop Loss will be at 141.25
TP will be initially at 134.12 and keep watching the market for more
June has come and gone, ushering in July…with a 100% winning trades and 1000+ pips result, June was indeed pipful. Will July be even more pipful? Let’s hope for more goodies…Scanning through the charts now and seeing some in teresting set ups…
I’ll try and post more trades and probably do more teaching on Price Action approach to trading fx…
Was wondering if you could share some opinions on the GBPUSD set up I’ve found by trying to follow you’re thinking. (Bare in mind I’m still on my journey to becoming a profitable trader… And my internet is down so I’m forced to use my phone)
Above is the daily with trend line and 2x horizontal lines that represent the support/resistance range.
My thinking is that once price comes down to test that range and/or the TL I will wait for a candlestick formation before entering long. And if it breaks through the trend line I will go short.
Here is the weekly chart (with supporting macD signalling a bullish trend)
Hello davenz…
Are you in Nigeria? That’s where I know we experience a lot of downtimes in internet connection…but the one I use has been unbelievably consistently fast and reliable…the network with the green butterfly.
As regards being a profitable trader, you will need to guard jealously your PDF file…the F stands for FOCUS
What you choose to focus on in fx trading will either make or mar you…so, its important to focus on the right things…2 things you should get right…1. A Strategy…2. Money management…get these 2 right, and you will surely become not just profitable, but superbly so…
My take on GbpUsd is bullish…I will post my analysis soon…
Do have a pipful month…
Then on the daily tf, we see price doing a Change in Trend Orientation (CITO)…forming a higher high instead of a lower high(arrowed candle closing above the previous high point indicated by the horizontal blue line, then retraced and rallied again forming another higher high… thus giving us a confirmed bullish ABCD
With this we now have an established bullish trend on the daily tf.
At the moment, we have a retrace…how long will this retrace go on…at what point will it turn back or will it take out the previous low?
To answer these questions, we begin to look for reversal patterns on the daily and or 4hr tf (you can look at the 1hr tf also for more aggressive entry).
What patterns do we look for?
We have the
321 or 123 (as some would call it)
CITO
Fib Patterns at key level (Gartley, Bat, Viglo, Butterfly, Crab)
Once we see any off these reversal patterns, we then begin to look for reversal candle formations.
There are several reversal candle formations (cf), but the once we use at FTA are:
Fakey
Squeeze
Knife
Pin bar
Engulfed IB
This is a simple approach we use at FTA… simple but highly effective
Just follow what price action is saying…It has its own language…learn and master it, and you will begin to reap its fruits.
On the monthly tf, we see price doing CITO,retraced and then gave a bullish fakey candle formation (highlited in yellow). We do not enter trade on the monthly tf, so we are not directly trading the monthly bullish fakey cf.however, we note the top of the cf…(1.4090)
On the daily, we see a CITO from bearish to bullish and then retrace to our support zone…would have loved to watch for bullish candle formation here, but we dont feel too comfortable with the long bullish candle, so we go to 4hr tf…
on the 4hr time frame, we see a CITO also from bearish to bullish…we’ll be watching for a retrace to 50% or more fib level, then a bullish candle formation…
Good day to you all, hope you’ve been having a pipful month this July…
Let’s take a look at this pair UsdJpy and see if we will get a trade on this
On the weekly tf, we see a bearish MACD divergence (as indicated by the blue lines). This is an indication that the present bullish trend might soon come to an end and usher in a bearish trend. price indeed came bearish for a while and now is retracing (a common phenomenon in forex trading…)
A divergence in the simplest term is when price is going in one direction, and the indicator used (mostly Oscillators) in this case the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is going the opposite direction.
On the daily time frame, price has been giving us a series of short trades to the significant support level 122.000. which is now broken and then retraced…
On the 4hr tf, the set up becomes more interesting…here we see price is at a resistance zone and making the 3rd touch on the zone within a month. The last closed candle is also a doji, which signifies indecision.
Price is at a potential turnaround point, and there’s an intense war between sellers and buyers…as it is we will not jump into a bearish trade, but wait for more bearish confirmation moreso on the 4hr tf for us to go short on this pair.
At FTA, we use the following for confirmation purposes to take a trade…most of our trades are always at the very beginning or close to beginning of a trend…
Thanks a lot pipnailer. I also believe that price action, especially on longer time frames like daily through monthly charts is the best.
Once again, thanks for the attachment
