Forex Traders Academy, [13.07.20 10:50]
CHFJPY…mid term bearish
On the monthly time frame (TF), we see price bounce off a Market Station (Support/Resistance Area that price respects a lot)…
See the downwards red arrows showing where this area was a strong support area… 1998, 2007, 2011
Price broke the resistance, travelled above it, then retraced to test the area…and again price respected this area and bounced off it, thus becoming a support area…2016
This makes the area a resistance turned support area…and a very strong one at that (Price has not disrespected that area…not even for once…
Also note that price is in the distributive phase of trend for now… the norm is for price to go bearish after a distributive phase of trend…but timing is key (we could have an expansion which is more of a fake breakout upwards before the expected bearish trend begins). TIMING IS KEY
Forex Traders Academy, [13.07.20 10:54]
Also note that price is in the distributive phase of trend for now… the norm is for price to go bearish after a distributive phase of trend…but timing is key (we could have an expansion which is more of a fake breakout upwards before the expected bearish trend begins)…TIMING is key
On the weekly tf, we see price hit a very strong Resistance…Like the Support level on monthly tf, this weekly resistance is also a very strong resistance level that price has always respected…
This gives more credence to our mid term BEARISH bias for this pair
Forex Traders Academy, [13.07.20 10:54]
Also note that price is in the distributive phase of trend for now… the norm is for price to go bearish after a distributive phase of trend…but timing is key (we could have an expansion which is more of a fake breakout upwards before the expected bearish trend begins)…TIMING is key
Forex Traders Academy, [13.07.20 11:06]
On the weekly tf, we see price hit a very strong Resistance…Like the Support level on monthly tf, this weekly resistance is also a very strong resistance level that price has always respected…
This gives more credence to our mid term BEARISH bias for this pair
We move to the 4hr tf to look for possible bearish entry…
As seen in the chart above, 4hr already is giving us signs of bearish move:
i. Bounce off Resistance
ii. took out the previous Higher Low (HL) to form a Lower Low(LL) thus giving us an emerging bearish trend.
iii. Price presently retraced to the CITO point and was rejected…see the bearish pin bar just before the last candle …
Our expected area of entry is the marked yellow box…
If the pin bar rejection had happened at that area, we would have taken a SELL…but e expect price to still go a bit higher to our marked entry zone so we could have a better entry with lesser draw down…
Our aggressive students would have gone short by now…(just in case price never makes it to the marked entry area)…with stop loss above resistance
We’ll keep watching this pair…it is on our high probabilty list