Hey Simon, glad to have you here! If you haven’t already, read through all of the articles in the Quick Navigation area on post #1. The standard price action that matters thread is a lot busier than this on, although there will be more advanced topics discussed. I try and do an article or video every week or two, so keep an eye out for those. Otherwise there is some great weekly chart analysis that goes on that you can glean some great information from. Thanks again and welcome to the community!
Hi,
Just wanted to say hello and a big thank you for the informative articles and videos. I am a part time Forex trader newbie and these threads have provided tons of information/examples.
Thanks,
Marcus
EURCAD SHORT SETUP
tempted by this - wouldn’t hesitate normally on setup like this one but there is the ECB rate decision tomorrow and wondering whether should avoid this for that reason…
otherwise there are more pros to this than cons. large 2 bar reversal on the weekly, key daily level, nicely formed pin bar on the daily (20 mins from NY close at time of posting).
only potential con is that with such a huge bearish move preceding this there could be a deeper pullback before the downtrend commences…ie to 50% of the weekly 2 bar reversal…
do we only need to avoid NFP? if so, I’d like to take this one…
Hi,
I have been reading this thread off and on over the last couple of weeks or so and keeping with the spirit of the thread I think its about time that I introduced myself.
My name is Sohrab, I am a technical writer by profession and am interested in Forex. I am quite new at the game and am still on a demo account.
Krugman, thank you for starting this thread and taking the time to teach us newbies.
Thanks Marcus, I am glad you are enjoying the educational material. There will be a lot more to come.
Hey Sohrab, thanks for introducing yourself! I have really enjoyed running these threads and I look forward to seeing how they develop and grow. I hope you find what you need to get started on your journey to successful trading. I look forward to taking price action in the future with you.
Regards
~Aaron K.
There were a lot of large impulsive moves today from the various news reports that came out. For the most part I didn’t see any really good and clear price action formation from these moves. The one that stood out to me was the AUDCHF. While there is a bullish trend in play right now, the trend actually formed inside of a bearish triangle pattern. We can see the large rejection bar off of the upper trend line of that triangle. This is a setup where to achieve the minimum RR for the trade, one would need to enter at a retracement of the daily candle. This adds extra risk to the trade, but would get you an acceptable RR. If the bottom trend line is broken, price could tumble to .8500 or .8400 before it finds support again.
Hi Krugman,
0.85000 or 0.84000 is kinda far down there. What is the reason we aim for that level to TP?
I can argue with myself about 0.85000, albeit with some suspension of disbelief in my part as I thought the aim should be around 0.86000, but what about 0.84000?
Welcome to the subjectiveness of PA trading. I won’t say .8600 isn’t a resistance level, but I am first looking for swing highs/lows to find my key levels. Those would be .8500 and .8400. Then back in august of 2011 there is some good indication that .8400 was an important level then also.
Completely agree with your level. Still cant download my chart to this page :56:
So that means for a very aggressive trader, he can also aim .8200, can’t he? That’s the lowest possible swing low for this AUDCHF pattern.
I never said shoot for the farthest swing point you can find on the chart. Actually the opposite, which is why I stated the nearest swing point at .8500 as first key level. .8500 and .8400 are the next two key support levels if a trader were to short.
I’ve never supported or taught holding a position until the 3rd, 4th, 5th Key level, so I would be curious on why you would make a comment like that. Me along with other traders would identify .8500 and .8400 as the next two key levels and logical areas for take profit. I am not sure what I’m missing here, but if what I am saying isn’t making sense then let me know.
Added above**
Sorry, Krugman. Here is what I mean:
I get what you mean by TP at 0.8500 or 0.8400, but I 'm thinking about aggressive traders that will aim for 0.8200. Or 0.8300 if they really love RN.
Personally, I think that’s way too aggressive, though. If you remember my personal opinion first, I even aim for 0.8600 as I’m actually rather conservative. And I don’t even take this AUDCHF trade as there are things I don’t like about this setup. The traffic on SEP6 to SEP19 for example. 
I would agree, 08200 or .8300 is way too aggressive, and any trader doing that on every trade probably wouldn’t be trading very long because the probability of winning would be so low. If you want to set it and forget it, then the first TP area is the way to go. Someone may feel price is selling off hard and want to shoot for that second key S/R area for a double of profits, that is fine also. Although even then I don’t suggest just shooting for the second area just because its more money, if I am going to hold my position for the 2nd key S/R, I have to have seen price action confirm that it will likely break through the first area. That may be a fast selloff, or some sort of pattern forming on the 1st level, like a flag or pennant.
That noise you mentioned doesn’t bother me too much as price shook out fairly quickly. Again that is something traders will differ on, what their tolerance for price noise is.
With NFP coming up, I will be curious to see if this price action candle plays out, and it sells of hard.
To all the noob friends, NFP is out today, be careful!
[QUOTE=“rtme;562511”]I’ve just found this, What do you think about this trading opportunity? Do you think ratio 1:3 is enough to trade this double bottom? <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> font: brokinator[/QUOTE]
Hey, can you reupload with pair and TF info?
Aaron - are you going to trade this with NFP today - on daily or intraday? Thanks
I wouldn’t treat that as a double bottom, I would just look at it at a range. Take a look here Bulkowski's Adam & Adam Double Bottoms at what a double bottom should look it. It is essentially 2 v-shaped price pattern. With that in mind I would wait until price reaches other the top or bottom of your range too look for price action setups.
No trades today, I am just watching from the sidelines and see if thing play out as I expect. I did notice that while most of the chf pairs shot up, the audchf pair dropped, which helps confirm in my mind that I correctly picked the most bearish of the chf setups. I am hoping price pulls back to the upper trend line next week because I will be looking for potential price action to short.