Price Action That Matters For Beginners

Aha, I begin to see what you mean here, Krugman. I also discuss this with my other colleague, and he mentioned something similar:
“Look at traffic like this: if the price has shot up and down passing the traffic, that was before, all the time afterwards, it’s kinda irrelevant for me. If price had stopped at this traffic and struggled to pass it, then I would consider it as a decent S/R zone. In this case, as you can see, price hasn’t struggled to go it’s way up and down passing the traffic. And if we were looking to every traffic there was, then we wouldn’t even be able to open a single trade.”

I think I was a bit too conservative when I check the trade setup. With that in mind, I agree that 0.8500 is a more realistic goal for this kind of trade setup.

nice… thank you for your contributions

Hi Aaron, just read your Q&A on this forum where you mention your use of leverage. Can you cover this as a topic and explain how you use it and how we can use it responsibly? Thanks.

When I mentioned leverage I was just talking about the leverage that your broker offers. Many people in the US know very little about Forex, they are use to stocks. So the idea of leverage is new to most people I talk to.


We can see that price has since reached it’s first key daily level since I mentioned it as a potential trade setup last Thursday. With the strength of the sell off we could see price stall above this key level before breaking and through and potentially reaching the second key support level at .8400. Large price action candles can sometimes provide poor risk:reward setups, but using retracements at logical levels such as previous candles high or a trend line resistance can greatly improve the potential reward for a setup. If a retracement entry order was placed at the trend line, this trade would have already provided 1:3 RR.

[QUOTE=“krugman25;564519”]<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> We can see that price has since reached it’s first key daily level since I mentioned it as a potential trade setup last Thursday. With the strength of the sell off we could see price stall above this key level before breaking and through and potentially reaching the second key support level at .8400. Large price action candles can sometimes provide poor risk:reward setups, but using retracements at logical levels such as previous candles high or a trend line resistance can greatly improve the potential reward for a setup. If a retracement entry order was placed at the trend line, this trade would have already provided 1:3 RR.[/QUOTE]

Nice one, thnx

I don’t to miss this course too… )

[B]Why human nature works against profits[/B]

I wanted to leave a bit of trading wisdom from legendary trader Jesse Livermore.

[I]“The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.”[/I]

Human nature works against you as a trader, and works against your ability to make money in the market. Worst of that nature is a persons desire to keep losing trades open but cutting winning trades short. This is done because of hope and greed. They keep their losers open out of hope that the market will turn in their favor, and they cut their winners short out of greed, because they don’t want to market taking back their couple percent winnings. If you let your losers run and cut your winners short, the best you can hope for is a break even or slightly better than break even profit record. This is why I am a proponent of learning what price action really is, and using that to get the most out of your trades.

[B]Why most guru price action courses don’t work[/B]

Countless PA teaching websites make it seem like 3 or 4 candlestick setups is price action. To the contrary, everything price does is price action. Learning a handful of candlestick setups can help you get in the market, but you will have a hard time making “significant” profits if that’s the only thing you know or understand about the markets. I have personally done this many times and I know many of the readers here would agree that they have gotten out of trades at a set profit level, just to watch price continue to move and you missed out on 1-2 times profit you could have made by staying in. Obviously every trade isn’t like this, but imagine if you could do this in just 1 out of every 10 trades. That extra 10-20% every dozen trades really starts to add up.

I think a great disservice is being done with the easy price action teaching that is prominent. I would have to seriously question if anyone is making gains in the long term, using simple horizontal levels and 2-3 price action candle setups. That is similar to taking a checkers strategy and applying it to a game of chess. It reminds me of the sales pitches you see on infomercials where they sell a bottle of magical goo that can take scratches out of your car. We all know it takes a 2000$ job done by an auto body shop to fix a car, not a 20$ bottle of magic goo. I take to my hat off to those teachers out their that are honest about the markets and discussing the advanced market dynamics. If I wanted to, I could tell people that trading is simple and can be done successfully with a horizontal line a couple of candle setups, but that would simply be deceptive. Trading is dynamic, difficult and at times emotionally draining. Instead of hiding those facts so I can sell memberships, I want to say lets be honest about the markets up front and then spend our time mastering it! It’s very disheartening see unformed newbies laying down hundreds of dollars for a simple, easy and clean magical trading method, just to find out it doesn’t actually work because the real life markets aren’t simple, easy and clear. My approach may not make you feel warm and fuzzy, but I don’t want to make you feel cozy about the market, I want you to make money and if possible “serious money”.

I have been extremely happy to see people here stretching their wings and trying out some of these different trading methods and techniques. It’s not just that though, I can tell some people here are really starting to “get it”. They are going from a 1-2-3 step method, to actually understanding the fluidity of the market and adjusting their trades to the current market conditions. Learning a step by step method isn’t bad, but it is a handicapped approach to the market and will keep you from really mastering the market. I have been extremely surprised by the number of people who have said they never heard of some of the topics I have mentioned. These are people who have been following the mainstream gurus for a couple months to a couple years. This tells me there is a huge gap in what is being sold and what is reality. I have a big job ahead of me, but I am enjoying this journey and I look forward to continue surgically analyzing every aspect of the markets and mastering them.

@krugman25
Please I am quite new but confident about making a living on forex and I need your help on how I can spot trend and reversal points, how I can use volume, pivot, moving averages with regards to all time frames respectively, fast newswire services, vps, free or affordable squawk services, candlestick and chart patterns, low pip and fast execution providing brokers with low investment capital and any other valuable information.
Hope I didn’t ask for much. Thanks

I admire your ambition to want to trade for a living. That goal isn’t unreachable but it will take a lot of hard work and experience. Keep that as your long term goal, but begin setting yourself short term goals that you can achieve in a few weeks/months. As a beginner I would suggest you trade one or two price action setups to learn and master them, and learn horizontal and trend line S/R. Start off with a few basics and really get them down, practice trading those until you can see that you are profitable over a couple months. By that time you should have had plenty of screen time and seen a couple hundred setups, then you will be ready to begin learning more setups and digging into some of the more advanced concepts of trading.
Since I just started all of this not even two months ago, I am still working on a lot of articles and videos. Right now I don’t have a lot of material for the absolute beginner, and most of what I have been teaching is for those who have been trading for at least a few months. I am going to try and focus over the next few months to get material out for those who have never traded before, but want to. In the mean time check out the articles/videos I’ve already made. You can find all of that in my first post “Quick Navigation” area. Hang out in my other Price Action that Matters thread and study the chart analysis that is posted on a daily basis. Also Google is a great tool for beginners to help you find answers to questions you may have about Forex.

Hi Aaron,

When you get time (I know you are pretty busy) please could you go into detail about how to trade inside bars (I am posting this on the beginner thread but if you could also include something advanced on the advanced thread too…) I would really appreciate it.

Thanks again for your brill thread…:smiley:

Regards,
Amy

Hey Amy, I will eventually be posting some info about inside bars over at the advanced thread. Inside bars can be hard to trade successfully. Because of that I have it a ways down my list of topics to cover. I want to make sure I hit on all of the foundational topics first and the reversal candles before I move onto IBs. My next article/video will cover retracement entry techniques.

Thanks for being apart of the PA That Matters community!

Thanks Aaron! :slight_smile: sounds good…

Hey traders, I just released an article discussing a key part of how I trade, [I]“Part 1: Retracement Techniques”[/I]

Check it out over at my advanced PA That Matters thread.

Enjoy!

Hello,
I have been going though this thread for days now. I consider my self a newbie since I’m yet to see consistency in my trading, despite the years I have invested in learning this market. I have subjected my self to demo trading until I see good result in my (Price Action) trading before I will go live again. I have made up my mind to settle down and learn the market (price action) instead of jumping from one indicator to another or from one trading system to another. As a newbie, I want to add that I am certain that I will ask silly questions in this thread and do funny things but I promise that I will not intentionally go against any of the rules. I just want to learn this market. So, pardon me in advance. I am a Nigerian.
I plotted the support and resistance based on the information I got from the mother thread (Price Action That Matters). Instead of using a single line for s/r level I used a bigger line to define my level. I feel more comfortable seeing the area as a zone. My idea is to trade in line with the trend. I hope to trade reversals some day but currently I want to stick with trend trading until I see good results. My expectation is that price will retrace to the support level in days to come before it continue its upward journey. I am looking forward to join the bulls at the end of the retracement.
Is this a realistic expectation? Are there things i missed? I need advices.
Thanks


Hi
I want to know whether this signal is a valid flag. I asked because this is the first time I am spotting this type of formation in the market. I just want to know whether my assumption is right.
Thanks


Think of it like this:

What has been happening the Aussie lately - judge by the aud/usd h1

What has been happening the Euro lately - judge by fibre h1

So therefore does the ‘flag’ make sense …

I’m guessing a h4, hard to see, many will say if you take the bottom of the flag pole to the top, then bottom of the flag to the top …load of baloney imo :slight_smile:

Hi Krugman,

my colleague today just told me about this interesting PA pattern:


I believe we call that Morning Star, and we list that as valid PA signal that we use in this community. Is there any plan that you’re going to cover how to trade Morning Star and Evening Star in more detail anytime soon?

Also, what do you think about Pinbar, 2 Bar Reversal, and Morning Star & Evening Star? If we combine a valid 2 BR or a valid MS/ES, we will come up with a valid PB. Are they then in equal footing, or should we think them as PB > 2 BR > MS / ES in term of PA strength?

[QUOTE=“wm247;570590”]Hi Krugman, my colleague today just told me about this interesting PA pattern: <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> I believe we call that Morning Star, and we list that as valid PA signal that we use in this community. Is there any plan that you’re going to cover how to trade Morning Star and Evening Star in more detail anytime soon? Also, what do you think about Pinbar, 2 Bar Reversal, and Morning Star & Evening Star? If we combine a valid 2 BR or a valid MS/ES, we will come up with a valid PB. Are they then in equal footing, or should we think them as PB > 2 BR > MS / ES in term of PA strength?[/QUOTE]

Willy, the morning star/evening star can be great patterns to trade. They are on my list of things to teach but towards the bottom. They don’t happen very often and high quality ones even less often. The pattern is usually large so they aren’t practical to trade unless you use a retracement entry or modified stop loss. Since they are a 3 candle patterns, it can be a little harder to pick out the good quality ones, so are more geared toward the intermediate skilled traders. In your picture you posted I would say only the 2nd from the left was tradable, and some of the others were arguably not MS patterns. The star(2nd candle) cannot protrude more than halfway down the 1st and 3rd candle, in most of the ones on the picture the 2nd candle wick was protruding up into the bodies of the 1st and 3rd candle. Also on the MS you want very little to no upper wick, and you want the 3rd candle as large or close to as large as the 1st candle.
Morning star and evening star patterns aren’t trades often in Forex because the original requirement was that the star gapped outside of the 1st and 3rd candles. This is common in the stock market but never happens in Forex. So the Forex definition is a little more lenient. With all of that being said, it is a great pattern to trade. I probably won’t be getting into writing about it until I get some other important topics written about first. It may be something you want to start practicing and learning about right now on a demo account. I would encourage that.

Hi There guys, I dont know if there is something I am missing is this the last page of this Thread?