Price Action That Matters

Hi Monjorra,
The screenshots you attached, are they from the platform you trade from or is it some sort of portfolio/trade management software?

Welcome Monjur, thanks for joining us. It looks like you have been having some great results for the past few months. When are you planning on going live? If you haven’t yet, check out past #2 on the first page of this thread were I have links to articles, posts and videos to help you grow in your PA skills. If you have a potential setup or a setup you have already taken feel free to post it here with analysis, it may even end up getting linked to on the home page if it has good educational value. You look like you are already on the right track and I hope we can help you achieve even better results.

Thanks a alot Krugman. when i will gain continuously 6 months then i will start live trading. i gave pic from myfxbook link profx.

great spot Aaron!! got me looking at the W1 charts which i rarely do and there are some beautiful setups about. Just to add on the S+P have you taken into account of the 1800 area just above the pb?


guppy


USDJPY


AUDNZD


DJ30

NOTE: S/R lines drawn on the daily

Darth

hi gang - I have been reading with interest that a lot of you guys have had a good january - really pleased for you guys and encouraged. coz I had a terrible january the worst since I started trading - which means it must be my psychology, which can be fixed… not sure why it’s been so bad really, I am still going through my trades. My account is down the most it’s been :-(…anyway, not gonna give up.
I like Darth’s post - with those nice looking setups, hopefully I can get my account back to break even. :slight_smile:

good trading all…

[QUOTE=“darthfrancis;600051”]

great spot Aaron!! got me looking at the W1 charts which i rarely do and there are some beautiful setups about. Just to add on the S+P have you taken into account of the 1800 area just above the pb?

<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

guppy

<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

USDJPY

<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

AUDNZD

<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

DJ30

NOTE: S/R lines drawn on the daily

Darth[/QUOTE]

Nice charts Darth, I take back my AUDNZD comments, looks like a good signal to short. I can hear a sell limit calling me.

[QUOTE=“Mr B A Barracus;600100”]

Nice charts Darth, I take back my AUDNZD comments, looks like a good signal to short. I can hear a sell limit calling me.[/QUOTE]

I just remembered the pin on the monthly AUDNZD to go long which is a bit conflicting…

yeh i agree with you BA, its right near the lowest its ever been and to be honest i would like to see a move higher from somewhere around the level we are at the moment

a month is a big candle, a lot can happen within that space also a lot of trades can do to. It looks like its going down very soon which is not to say it won’t go back up again the next week but in the mean time pips can be made both ways. It looks like it want to visit its bottom again so after it does it may just say hey time to visit the head again.

Darth

[QUOTE=“darthfrancis;600114”]

a month is a big candle, a lot can happen within that space also a lot of trades can do to. It looks like its going down very soon which is not to say it won’t go back up again the next week but in the mean time pips can be made both ways. It looks like it want to visit its bottom again so after it does it may just say hey time to visit the head again.

Darth[/QUOTE]

Hi guys

I agree with both of you, i think this will go back down a little and then we will be looking for longs unless records are broken. I am back in this short for now and hope to take some profit before It goes back up.

High risk events for week of 2/10
Nothing hugely impacting be a number of reports that could shake up the markets a little bit. For those trading 1 hour or less may want to keep and eye on the upcoming high risk events.


So after reading trough pages, I have a question about EMAs you guys use.
This may be discussed before and I used the thread search tool, but couldn’t find the answer.

I saw that you use 8 ema and 21 ema on daily charts and 4h charts when trading trending pairs.
[B]Or do you plot 8/21 on all the time frames like 2h, 4h, 6h, 8h, 12h etc?[/B] and how does that work?

Thanks.

This is another thing I am skeptical about, I cannot decide whether or not to trade around news. I don’t trade on charts below 4H.
I think I was more successful when I did not pay much attention to the High Impact News events. I guess price almost always move with the trend regardless of the outcome of the news event and news give nice pulls toward the direction of the trend. But now a days I cannot make up my mind to enter a trade when I see big news on calendar.

Your input is much appreciated :slight_smile:

I really like the AUDNZD you posted. Because of my current lifestyle right now I simply have not been able to trade intraday, so I have been venturing out into the weekly and even monthly charts, and been finding some great looking charts. Regarding the 1800, I looked at that and I am just not convinced it is a very strong resistance, and least not enough that I believe it will significantly impact the probability of the trade. I try as much as possible to look at the major components of the charts, or those things that I believe will have a major impact on the movement of price. I don’t tend to consider round numbers just because they are round numbers, I like to see previous price action. Price seems to have closed out the week above these previous swing highs which is a very bullish sign. To be honest the strength of Thursday and Friday somewhat blew my mind. I was completely not expecting that price action. I am hoping for a temporary pullback of 1-2%(17-35 pts.) in which case I may get long on a bullish looking stock, or I may go long on a double/triple velocity S&P ETF such as SPXL.
I am also in 2 Forex trades I got in last Thursday that are well in the green. I am hoping they reach TP soon so I can post some analysis. Overall I think last weeks volatility has helped prime the charts for some potentially good setups.

Hey rPIP, great questions! I may link to this post because I feel it needs clarity. I only use the EMAs on the daily charts. It is a very common practice for professional traders to use the daily charts when checking indicators. This is because the daily chart encompasses a full session of all world markets. The 50 and 200 EMAs are widely used for medium and long term trend checking and you will always see them applied to daily charts. EMAs in and of themselves are fairly useless. It is a simple equation that will not tell you anything more than what you can get from looking at raw price candlesticks. [B]BUT[/B] they are useful as support and resistance areas. Because so many people will watch and trade based off of the daily EMAs, can can look to these widely used EMA settings on the daily chart for price action candle formations. If you do see them on my charts on any other timeframe than daily, it was because I forgot to hide them, otherwise I do only use them at the daily time frame. This goes back to one motto I have “If it matters to the market, it matters to me”. To only reason any of this works is because the majority of the market looks to these levels, and that mass market reaction is what causes the same price patterns to repeat over and over, and what makes their outcomes highly predictable. I don’t agree with the camp that thinks indicators are evil. To the contrary, by ignoring indicators you are handicapping your trading ability. You may be trading right into a key resistance, but you don’t realize it because you are ignoring these tools that the majority of the market looks to for their trading decisions.

Another fantastic question, the only reason to avoid the news is to avoid the very deadly whipsaw/spread combo. Trading the news in terms of trying to predict market movements doesn’t work. The markets move regardless of the news. I believe news only serves as a tool to increase price volatility, but price itself moves based on things completely separate from what news or data is released. The worry with trading news isn’t that the news will somehow release some data to ruin your setup, but rather the volatility caused by the news will whipsaw you out of your trade. If you are trading daily candles and up most events won’t cause enough volatility to stop you out. Sometimes the answer is just moving your stop out 20-30 pips during the first 15-30 minutes of the news or until the volatility dies down, and then moving your stop back to normal. The whole thing where your stoploss needs to be 1/10 of a pip above your candle is kind of rediculous. You will lose more money from false breaks and whipsaws due to trying to save a pip, than you ever will giving your stoploss a bit of breathing room. That goes for both news events and non news events.

If you are trading intra day and the events are BIG like NFP or a rate decision then you are better off not taking the trade. Big news events have 2 things working against you, one is volatility which means price will make huge movements very quickly. Price can shoot way up, fall way down over and over again during a news event, and end the day at the same spot it was before it started. You can see 500% pip movement of a normal day, but price ends up not going anywhere, which is called whipsawing. The second thing that happens is the spread gets very large, again you may see spreads that are 500%+ above normal. So not only doing you have these huge price movements way above normal, but you also have spreads way above normal, intra-day price action trades probably won’t survive. The spread alone may instantly stop you out.

Leverage is a double edged sword. On one hand it helps you make great profit in a short amount of time and for relatively small price movements. On the other hand it means you are taking a huge risk for a relatively small distance on the chart. For example if you take a trade on the EURUSD with a 50 pip stop loss, you are giving yourself a stop loss of .37% of the total basket price. Those who have never traded in the stock market may not realize what that means, but that is insanely small. In the stock market the general rule of thumb is to set your stop loss 5-7% of the stock price from your entry. 7% of the EURUSD is 950 pips. Famous investors like Warren Buffet trade with 2:1 leverage “maximum”. Many millionaire and hedge fund Forex traders keep their leverage to 1:1 or 2:1. I am not saying drop your leverage but trading the intra-day time frames are far more risky than most Forex traders realize. As I have been getting back into stock trading in the past 6 months or so I have really been looking at Forex and figuring out what are the potential pitfalls where people are losing money. Those here can be certain I will continue to post any research or ideas that I believe will benefit Forex traders.

Aaron I’m curious whether you take into consideration any fundamental analysis when trading stocks or is it purely price based?
eg. Company performances

Good on you mate, weekly and monthly takes alot of patience and faith which its definitely what most traders lack, myself included. I think the only time I would play a monthly chart is if I was going to do some jail time that way I couldn’t interfere (extreme I know lol).

I’m current long GBPUSD, short AUDNZD, set pending long for USDJPY and plan to set pending on the DJ30.

Look forward to seeing your trades and anyone elses :53:

Darth

Hi, I’ve started following this excellent thread even though I’m not (as yet!) a PA trader. I’m still on demo, and happily testing and refining my indicator driven system, but the PA insights are incredibly helpful, as well as your thoughts on trading approach in general. Really enjoyable & educational to read. Much obliged :). Will keep following and learning.

Thanks very much for the detailed explanation Aaron :slight_smile: