Price Action That Matters

Look forward to seeing you back here dude. Have fun in the mean time.

Darth

My results for february. 1.5% gain and win rate of 62%.

I’m annoyed a bit as I was up by 4% by the end of the first week but since then it was a downward slope to hold on to it. In fairness I should really be -2% as I had a 3 correlated trades that I closed break even that ended going on to hit my SL. So in the end I’m happy to be in profit even though not by much.

And more important learnt some good lessons and going to be even more critical over my trades.

How was everyone elses feb?

Apart from Aaron who is a show pony. :stuck_out_tongue:

Darth

I’ve been away from baby pips for quite sometime.
But catching up with PA’s discussions, will be posting my trade Ideas:
Please let me know what do you think!

EURUSD - TRIPLE TOP (SHORT)
[ATTACH=CONFIG]58439

USDCHF - 5 LEG WAVE (LONG PULLBACK)
[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]58440

USDCAD - ABCD PATTERN (SHORT)
[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]58441

EURCAD - PIN BAR (SHORT)
[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]58442

[/ATTACH]

















Thanks for pointing this out. If you are looking for volume price divergence you want to make sure the light volume isn’t because of a holiday or end of trading week, where light volume is to be expected. This makes reading volume at higher time frames such as daily or weekly candles more accurate.

Grats on ending the month in green. Think of it like this, you made more money in 1 month on Forex than you would have by putting it in a savings account all year, not too shabby. More importantly though, as you mentioned, you learned some great lessons this month. I have been trading for a while and I still walk away at the end of each month with something new that I learned that I can apply to the next month of trading. That learning process will help you slowly but surely increase your gains over time.

I ended up the month about 9% but this last month I really passed up the poor trades and took the ones that just jumped out at me. I also have only been trading the daily candles due to my schedule and am enjoying a higher win rate because of it. I hold most of my trades for 1-2 weeks. Overall my trading as of late has been very casual and relaxed and I have been enjoying a very steady equity curve. When I do get back to intra day trading I am going to revisit the whole thought process and methodology behind it to find ways to make it more profitable and less stressful. I will be sure to post all of that here :slight_smile:

Welcome back and great job jumping right back in with analysis! Way to hit the ground running. I agree with all of your pictures except for the first one. I know it looks like you have a trip top in place but what you actually have is an ascending triangle, which is a bullish pattern. The difference between the two is that in a triple top the two valleys should extend down about the same distance. In an ascending triangle, each successive valley gets smaller which shows that the markets buying power is getting strong with each price dip, and each dip is getting more shallow.
Something I always say to people when identifying a double or triple top/bottom is to wait for the patterns to complete because all ascending/descending triangles start out as double/triple tops/bottoms but have exactly the opposite meaning.

and as always i will be watching with great interest. hope your well mate

High Risk Events for the Week of 3/2/14


This is going to be a busy week for data. Before you pull the trigger on that trade take a look at all of the dynamics at play. Are one of the countries in the pair announcing rate changes or payroll data? If so, what is the likelihood of your trade hitting tp before the news event. If it is still open a few hours before the news event will you close out or will you widen your stoploss to compensate for the sudden jump in spread/volatility. Is the timeframe and stoploss distance of your trade big enough to avoid certain loss from high spread/volatility.
As the professional or aspiring trader you need to decide what is best for you, but make sure you make those decisions firmly grounded in reality. Sometimes you will have green lights to make the trade, other times you will have to pass up on a great setup just because the trading environment from a big event will kill your trading edge. Either way do everything you can not to simply hand your money back to the market.

Thanks for the info, still learning how to use volume as a good indication system.

Darth

Aaron
i like the layout of your calander. Where’d you get it?

Hi Esosa, if I may interject, it’s from Babypips’ very own calendar!

Forex Calendar: Economic Calendar for FX Trading News & Event Risk

Enjoy :slight_smile:

I’ve been waiting to do for this for weeks. ahem.

No retreat, no surrender. That is Spartan law. And by Spartan law, we will stand and fight… and die. A new age has begun: an age of freedom! And all will know that 300 Spartans gave their last breath to defend it!

Spartans! Ready your breakfast and eat hearty, for tonight, we dine in hell!

Welcome to page 300 of the thread. AROO!!

King LeoDARTHmus

Babypips has a good calendar but I actually get all of my calendars from dailyfx.com

Let’s forget about the part where they all die horrible deaths at the hands of their enemies, hahaha.

It’s hard to believe this thread is only about 3 months old! This thing is just getting started, there are great things on the horizon! Keep up the great work everyone!

Thanks mate!

They did but yet 1000 years later there still remembered, not many can say that.

But well done on the thread Aaron, look forward to more great stuff.

Darth

Thanks captain!


I posted this evening star setup as it was still forming a week or so back. As soon as I did my analysis I placed a retracement entry where I thought price might pull back to before reversing. That retrace ended up getting triggered and let me get a much better RR. I didn’t post it on the screenshot but I would give this 3.5 stars.

Be careful of the Gaps on the JPY pairs and others in case they fill and you get stopped out…

Before I check out of babypips for the day I want to give a word of warning to everyone, not only is this a big week for data, but there is also international turmoil brewing with the Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the world. This thing could take a lot of potential turns very quickly and it will create a ton of volatility. I would suggest staying away from intra-day setups unless you really think they are gold, otherwise the risk may not be work it. This is especially true for the stock markets. Also keep an eye on china, if they jump in to support Russia, things could get very hairy.

Also for those watching or trading the world stock markets, I have been saying that we were at high risk for a market reversal in the next 2 months, and we may end up seeing that play out. Last friday we said an entire days worth of gains wiped out in just a few minutes, which showed the potential strength behind the bears. Markets are comprised of many individual companies, so one good way to look at the strength of a market is too look at the individual companies that comprise the market. Last Friday we saw the SP make an all time closing high, the dirty little secret is that only 6% of companies on the SP are near or at their 52 week high. When the market begins making new highs on a relatively small number of stocks, that is a big red flag. The first key support for the DJIA is around 16110-16150, if we break below that the next level to watch is 15360. Breaking below that would set us up for an official 1-2-3 reversal pattern on the long term charts and a free fall to 14,000. Another sign of weakness in the markets came out this weekend. There could be some great potential short setups in the markets, or some great potential long setups in commodities as money pours out of the stock markets and into safe haven markets.