Before I check out of babypips for the day I want to give a word of warning to everyone, not only is this a big week for data, but there is also international turmoil brewing with the Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the world. This thing could take a lot of potential turns very quickly and it will create a ton of volatility. I would suggest staying away from intra-day setups unless you really think they are gold, otherwise the risk may not be work it. This is especially true for the stock markets. Also keep an eye on china, if they jump in to support Russia, things could get very hairy.
Also for those watching or trading the world stock markets, I have been saying that we were at high risk for a market reversal in the next 2 months, and we may end up seeing that play out. Last friday we saw an entire days worth of gains wiped out in just a few minutes, which showed the potential strength behind the bears. Another sign of weakness in the markets came out this weekend in a report about the companies that make up the markets. Markets are comprised of many individual companies, so one good way to look at the strength of a market is to look at the individual companies that comprise the market. Last Friday we saw the SP500 make an all time closing high, the dirty little secret is that only 6% of companies on the SP are near or at their 52 week high. When the markets begins making new highs on a relatively small number of stocks, that is a big red flag. The first key support for the DJIA is around 16110-16150, if we break below that the next level to watch is 15360. Breaking below that would set us up for an official 1-2-3 reversal pattern on the long term charts and a free fall to 14,000. There could be some great potential short setups in the markets, or some great potential long setups in commodities as money pours out of the stock markets and into safe haven markets.
Are you still in on the USDJPY W1 PB long trade? Iâm kinda in 3 minds how to play thisâŚ
Its obviously on a downtrend now to the VBRN of 100.00 now do I just close out for a loss, wait for a retracement back up to near my entry level or leave it alone and see what happens as my SL is at 100.63?
I closed it last Thursday after the daily IB low broke. There is a possibility it will fill the gap, so you could wait and see how the gap plays out, but it ainât lookin like the PB is gona play off⌠We could be wrong an next week it will rally, who knows, play the PA as it shows is my motto
On this trade there was nothing notable about the volume. The lack of volume confirmation and the somewhat messy price action to the left is what caused me to give it a rating in the 3âs, otherwise it was a perfectly formed evening star off of a very key level.
I started up a myfxbook account back in December to track my monthly gains. I was debating on whether or not to show the results for a lot of reasons but I have ultimately decided to post some results. This is from a demo account, but I for the most part mirror trades from my real account. This way I can post my trading results while keeping some of my financial information private. My biggest fear is that others will use me as a benchmark and this will do more harm than good. So let me say this, we all trade differently and are at different levels of our trading experience. You may do much worse or much better than me but that doesnât mean anything. What matters is that you are comparing yourself to yourself. By that I mean use your own trading history as your standard, and try to constantly improve on it. Also, month by month trading results donât mean much. A quarterly or yearly result will be much more accurate, so donât get down by comparing your months results to someone else. There are simply not enough trades taken in a month to get a good long term view of someones trading ability. Also, I am constantly trying out different patterns and tweaking my trading style, and I use this demo account so I donât throw away my hard earned money on testing. Because of that this wonât exactly match my live account but it should give a general idea of my results using the methods I teach here. If I do a lot of experimental trades I will let everyone know as it will probably show up on the trade results.
Why am I doing this? To be honest I think most Forex teachers are full of crap about the success of their methods(pardon my bluntness) and I donât want to be placed in that group. They offer valid reasons why they wonât show their live trading account and I fully agree with those reasons, but I think there are ways to show your method works without showing the world your personal account info and trading history. As time has gone on I tend to be more and more skeptical of teachers asking for big money for their course but they canât show one iota of evidence that it actually works. I tend to believe that many do not work.
There may be some that are on the fence about price action in general or about the specific way I approach price action and perhaps this will help push them over the edge to join up here. There will always be skeptics and Iâm not interested in appeasing skeptics. This is for those here that are risking their hard earned cash by using methods and techniques taught here by me, and this will hopefully give them a little more confidence in what is being taught here.
I will make the demo account public once I learn a little more about how to change some of the myfxbook account settings. I want to make sure it is not posting my trades live and it being used as a signal service. For now I posted a screenshot of the month-over-month profits.
I fully agree that most âteachersâ are full of crap lol.
Also, about the sharing of MyFxBook account, for me, I like to keep mine private for several reasons, the main one being, I have spent so much time, money and energy to learn forex, and I am not willing to give away my trades to others who are just looking to freeload from me.
Ask any âteacherâ to show his results and he/she will come up with every excuse under the sun to get around it, at that stage, I call bluff.
I found out how to disable live trades but still show history. That way people can go back and view my trade history and verify or analyze my trades, without the risk of this being used for signals. If I am going to assume the legal responsibility for being a signal service, that certainly wonât be given out for free, haha.
Here is my link if people want to check it out. I will put it on the home page also. FXCM Demo | Myfxbook
This takes alot of guts mate, and youâve done such a hard thing be bareing all, but from me thank you for your honesty.
Its so refreshing to see this kind of honesty and 100% agree on everything you said especially that the only person you should compare yourself to is your self.
Also congrats on being 7% up on the first trading day of the month, good luck holding on to it for the rest of it lol.
Question big guy, I remember you said you risked 5% on that big trade. Which obviously paid off, but since then do you think you would risk so much on a single trade again?
I would risk 5% on a trade and have done that and more recently but I wouldnât risk that much on such a small time frame trade. If I am going that big risk the trade needs to be on the weekly or higher time frame. I try and keep my intra days around 1% risk but If I saw a perfect setup I may bump it up to as much as 3%
Hi mate, I saw that. Going to keep an eye on it. Got a question for you, as IBâs tend to break out in one direction do you ever set a pending either side of the mother candle to help catch the move or does this lead to wipsawing?
