I also looking at this pair mate. I did entered the weekly pin bar but close at the resistance which showing rejection now. I missed out h4 2 bar reversal but it is ok, I will wait for this daily setup to close.
I am bullish on the weekly too, it missed my FTA by one pip so I moved my SL to BE and waiting to see what happens
Same here. I closed 50% at FTA and moved to BE for the remainder.
Good morning everyone! I would like to spend a bit more time commenting in here this morning but I have quite a few meetings and conference calls. I ran through my charts and no high quality PA is standing out. I was hoping we would have a good trading week to help kick this thread off but unfortunately not. Ill pop back in around noon my time today.
Regards,
Aaron Kruger
We get it, itās morning! 
Good morning to you to 
Haha, I did write that after being away for like 1 minute. Thatās literally how long it took me to realize there was crap going on in the charts.
Someone posted about an evening star on the AUD/NZD 4hr in the other thread. He is probably going to get a hard time there because it is out of subject but as it is part of the setup mentioned on Aaronās first post, what do you all think about it ? Itās at the top of a nice range but as I have no experience with this kind of PA signal, my question is : Is it convincing enough ?
I would really appreciate to get some feedback please,
Yves
Iām not that familiair with these PA signals either, but I have drawn S/R a bit lower than you, at around 1.1385, which has been touched quite a lot. So Iād rather wait for a short retracement to that S/R and search for long from that level.
Thatās interesting, s/r line drawn slightly lower and it is a complete different story ! Thanks for your input. I think we are even more confused now. Hopefully we can get more opinions.
Hi Muhammad,
āFunny you should mentionā in my context means āthatās great, Iām looking at the same thing you are!ā. We are all here to learn despite how long weāve been at this. So it doesnāt mean itās funny, it means what a coincidence!
As for the weekly, I would suggest giving a bit of consideration to the weekly candle even if you donāt trade them. Just as a daily candle shows you who wins the battles on a 24HR basis, a weekly candle will show you who won the weeks battle. If you see a large engulfing bar on the weekly off a support or resistance line, you can imagine who was in control for the ENTIRE week.
Will price respect it? Iād like to think so because the most recent swing was a lower lower off a 61.8 fib level, but thatās just asking if I know where the market will go, which nobody really knows.
OK Guys
Since the market is giving me such a hard time and I canāt find anything to trade I will touch on another subject if thatās OK with everyone, and thatās trade management
after suffering from considerable losses a few weeks back and blowing 50% of my account in just a few hours I am finding my self much more defensive and conservative in my trade management.
This relates a lot to Krugmanās post 301 Moved Permanently but I would like your opinions about my specific case am I over-managing my trades ?
I will give for example the USD CAS weekly pin bar I was in until this after noon,
After setting my entry / FTA and SL it took almost 2 weeks for the trade to get triggered and then it took off nicely and gain momentum, I had my first TP set at 1.0420
As you probably know price reached 1.0419 then backed off pretty aggressively, and my first reaction was to move my SL to BE.
I then started thinking and getting tempted to manually close the trade to secure profit but I didnāt, what I did instead was moving to the 4 hr TF and moved my SL under the mother bar of an IB that occurred at 16:00 chart time, my reasoning was that an IB is usually an indecision signal and if the low of the IB mother is taken it means that price has really reverted. I need to add to that the 2BR reversal that happened near FTA was rather convincing.
I was stopped out with about 40 pips profit as the mother bar bottom was taken and then price reverted againā¦
I am almost happy with the result of my trade and knowing that I could have closed it 20 pips higher or something manually doesnāt really bother me but my question is was my reasoning too defensive ? it that practice of ātrailingā stop (not any arbitrary number of pips of course) makes sense?
thanks
To me, you were just being smart and protecting your capital.
Hi,
Not valid Evening Star because third candle must close at low of the first candle or better if close lower
If you blow 50% of your account in a few hours, then you are either over leveraging or over trading. How do you calculate your risk?
Also, trade management is one of those things thatās learned overtime. Itāll become clearer the more you are exposed to the market. Personally, I wait for the price to pass my BE point by a decent amount before I move my SL to BE so I donāt get stopped out by a small, insignificant move. But even that depends on the setup. Similar idea to trailing stops. I generally only use trailing stops if I take a trade where thereās a decent amount of traffic between price and my TP. I also use 15 minute charts quite often to spot S/R on the intrahour charts even though it isnāt a part of Aaronās method. But thatās just me and the way I trade. Itās developed overtime.
As long as you could logically justify your actions and try not to be controlled by your emotions (proper risk management helps with that), youāll learn, whether itās from a win or a loss. And eventually youād be saying to yourself ālast time I did x, y happenedā and apply that previous knowledge to the present situation.
Trading has no right answers. I used to get mad when I gained only 50 pips instead of, say 100 pips. But in the end, a win is still a win. And a win is better than a loss. Similarly, BE is better than a loss.
Thereās just so much to be said about this topic. But Iām still curious about your risk management methods. Because I think that largely contributes to your significant losses.
Thanks for answering too, that was a few weeks ago, it was my 4th week of trading and I didnāt have any risk or money management but I have learned my lesson and also learned to do proper (at least I hope) position sizing. things are better now but it is a LONG way to recover from the losses but itās ok it is part of the game i guess
Congrats Aaron - very nice thread going - very professional vibe going on here. Iāll be trying to keep up with it - and contribute if I can.
I hope so too :P.
For educational purposes, hereās a real simple way to look at it. Take your balance and find a percentage you could comfortably lose. Lets say you use 2% of say, $10000.
2% of your balance, 10000 is $200. Meaning you could risk $200 at any given time.
Now say you spot a decent setup. Figure out how many pips you want to set your SL to be. Take that pip amount, Lets say 50 pips and divide $200/50 pips giving you $4/pip. Youād want to buy/sell the amount of lots that give you $4 a pip.
Therefore if your trade is stopped for a loss. You only lost 2% of your account. Proving it, you lose 25 pips and your $/pip was 4.
$4 per pip x 50 pips = your risk, $200.
Thatās a simple, yet effective way to look at risk management. And Iām sure that how alot of the people in this thread do it but possibly with exceptions or alterations.
thank you for writing this, this is exactly the method I am using now with the only difference that I do not believe in the 2% rule I am just sizing my position with an amount I am ok to loose, always the same amount until the time I feel I want to increase it or decrease it . if/when this happens I will increase it or decrease it on all my positions from that point on.
Cheers
Hey Eternal, I remember when you suffered that big loss. I can see how it is messing with your mind. Hereās a little story about myself. In my first 4 days of ever trading Forex my account grew by 230%. In 2 weeks following it had lost almost 93% of itās highest value. That was very painful, so I know how you feel. I actually traded with the last 7% of my account for a long time before I refunded it back up 100%. I wanted to make sure I learned my lesson before I risked more money again. Ever since then things have been very successful.
The problem I had and probably the one you had was both overleveraging and overtrading. I think any beginner should only be risking 1-2% max on any trade. As you get better you will find those rare 5 star trades and go 5% risk or more, but this is only after you can consistently make a profit trading low risk, and begin to learn what trades are high quality and what are mid quality.
Again I think someone struggling to be profitable should stick to a very cookie cutter plan. So set 1 take profit at a reasonable S/R, set your SL, and donāt move anything until one or the other is hit. Once you learn the warning signals the market throws at you, you can begin moving into the area of smarter trading, and interact with your trade if need be. Iāve already stated that I will intervene in a trade if I feel the need to, but you would find I look at and think about my trade very little. I donāt accept the premise that trading intelligently and defensively is equal to overtrading or too much screen time. I say all of that because I want you to see there is a difference between overtrading, and passive-defensive trading.
I shoot for major S/R areas as take profit areas, but I can usually find a few minor S/R areas on the way there that could cause potential problems. I will use these minor S/R areas to watch for PA counter to my trade, or a potential area to move a SL to. Itās important that is all in the timeframe as you entered the trade! I am with many other teachers in the idea that the timeframe your price action entry was on is the same you manage your trade from. Because the market structure at a higher timeframe can be completely different at a smaller TF.
Based on your comment I would disagree with you moving to a lower timeframe. You jumped from a 1 week chart to 4 hours. That is a huge difference in time and the two TFs would have very little correlation to each other. Itās impossible to tell without sitting at your computer and watching you but it doesnāt like you were overtrading. You do sound scared to lost though, which is understandable considering the big loss. If a SL getting hit freaks you out, you are risking too much. Risk an amount small enough to where if you lost the trade it wouldnāt hardly bother you. That may be 0.5% right now. I would suggest mostly for you right now keeping it simple and doing that until you become successful. If you canāt be successful with the basic principles of PA, moving to advanced methods wonāt benefit you at all.
Welcome perch, I am glad to have you here. I donāt know if you have seen it yet but there is a quick navigation post(#11) on the first page that links you to major videos, posts and articles that will give you up to speed with what is taught here. Itās pretty bare right now but things will be added on a weekly basis.