Hi Everyone,
Came to this thread a bit too late. Anyways wishing Aaron all the best with his booming business. I would track back to learn more. Cheers.
Regards,
Kingtawa
[QUOTE=ākrugman25;628212ā]Hey everyone, I wanted to give everyone a heads up that I plan on taking a hiatus from this thread and babypips for a while. As most everyone knows I designed a product for the gas/oil industry and am working for a start-up company that is built upon that product. The company just sold more in 1 shot than it has in the last 2-3 years it has existed. That means that it is really picking up steam and sales are starting to flow in. We are projecting about a 1000% growth this year over last year. I am getting extremely busy and wonāt have the time or energy to contribute to great websites like these. This doesnāt mean I wonāt ever be back to contribute and further this and other threads, but for right now my career demands my full time and attention. I hope to see all of you still here and active on babypips when I am able to come back. Thanks to everyone for making this thread hands down the best thread on babypips. Regards, Aaron Kruger[/QUOTE]
Hey Aaron,
All the very best with your new venture, I hope it brings you much success.
I just finished going through this whole thread in detail and it really is top quality!!!
Thanks for your time so far and I hope we see you back here every now and then.
Best
Amy
Thanks again everyone for the kind words. I am commissioning 7 new installs over the next 2 weeks which will keep me very busy.
Heads up on the USDJPY, beautiful inside bar + false break combo off of key support.
I may still pop in from time to time, but expect long periods of me disappearing. Unfortunately Forex trading has such a high turnover rate, I canāt count on anyone sticking around long enough to help moderate my threads and keep them on track.
In other news, there is an intra-day falling wedge on the USDJPY that is in line with the daily pinbar. The wedge is easy to see on the 5 minute charts. I think if we see the falling wedge break to the upside, which is the bias of a falling wedge, we could see the daily PB start playing out. 101.23 right now, breakout is in the 101.25-26 range. We will see!
Sorry for the late congratulations Krungman! 
Isnāt it just like the Forex market to stop you out and then create an even larger setup in the same direction, haha.
Hi Aaron,
Long time lurker and first time contributor. This is by far the best PA thread on BP. Ok adoration over for the meantime.
I whole heartedly agree with your USDJPY sentiments. This Forex game is a tough beast for sure. I got stopped out from that small PB I took a few days ago playing the range . I knew I should have used the Feb lows as my SL. Hindsight!! All a learning game for next time.
So as you say the setup is now twice as good. Will you be going at it again and a 50% retrace?
Hope we see you around in here a little bit though. Your knowledge and words are fantastic! Awesome to hear business is picking up for you. I think we all yearn for financial freedom and independence and it sounds you are making inroads on that journey! Congrats bro!
Mat
Thanks for the kind words Mat! As for the USDJPY, the pinbar was the daily candle as of this morning. It ended the day as more of an indecision candle. If you zoom to 8 hour candles you can see that the bullish pinbar from the Asia session was followed by a large bearish pinbar during the US session, so I personally would leave that alone for now. I also had a similar stop out experience with the EURUSD. Although on that one after getting stopped out price pull right back in forming a huge pinbar on multiple time frames, m10, h1, h2, h4. I entered back into the trade as soon as price broke past the m10 candle, which got me back in the trade close to where I was stopped out. The daily didnāt quite end as a pinbar, but it is a very large and very nice false break hammer.
If UJ breaks 101.630 we will see 101.796 and then possibly 102.069, depending on how the next few H4 candles closeā¦
As for GJ, if it also breaks the IB high, then I would say we will see further upside.
Check the H4 charts for the IB setups on these pairs, they are at pretty sweet levels at the moment, I will try and get a chart posted tomorrow
Iām actually in both of them right now. Didnāt take the previous UJ PB. Didnāt feel that the size and volume on that pin could penetrate the down triangle. This one however seems to be able to penetrate a bit to the upside, although iām not sure how far. I was in the USDCHF PB but it was stopped out and the new one doesnāt seem to be much of a decided direction. EURUSD Iām still in but on the new daily candle. Didnāt enter on AJ and NJ purely because it didnāt fit my requirements although it seems to be moving quite nicely for whoevers in it Ugh CADJPY tooā¦Pickin the wrong ones lmao.
How fares everyone else?
Took most profit off the table on GJ at TP 1, never entered UJ, didnāt like the look of it, Gold, hit TP 1 and now at BE due to large position open.
GU Possibly setting up for short.
hahaha - i also took the first pin bar and got stopped out but i re-entered on the second much bigger pin bar which created a deeper false break of the support layer as the analysis was the same and the PA signal even clearer. so hopefully that should cover the first loss and I should be up a bit of profit. will post the analysis when i get a chance (whether or not it hits TP!! although itās looking on track at the moment)ā¦
So, what was your exposure on EURUSD and USDCHF? Short the former, long the latter?
Hey, Long the former and short the latter. First PBās werent triggered and the 2nd EURUSD is still pending. Both GJ and UJ are at breakeven.
What about you?
I wasnāt asking to compare positions 
I was asking because I wanted to make you aware of the near perfect inverse correlation between EURUSD / USDCHF. Not sure if you knew about thisā¦
In essence, youāre doubling your risk by making those trades- when the EURO moves up, the Swissie moves down (and vice versa) 98% of the time.
Think about what the two currency pairs represent:
EUR vs USD
USD vs CHF
Right now, the correlation is @ -98.4%. With -100% being perfect inverse.
Switzerland is not part of the EU, but their currency is pegged to the EUR.
If you risk 3% on each trade, and both stops are hit, youāre losing 6% of your equity.
Why not just trade the EURUSD- cheaper spread, more volatility.
I wasnt asking about comparing positions Just asking if youve entered, thought of entering or anything related.
I am aware of the correlations but I dont use that as a reason to deter me from trades. I know about AUD and gold. I know different pairs have different correlations dependent on the time frame. What you mentioned is on the DAILY. There are multiple correlations amongst the smaller time frames as well as larger time frames. Despite it being near 100% they both give different signals from time to time and I take signals according to the signal and not the correlation. I use the exact opposite as well. Just because one is correlated doesnt mean I should use that information as confluence to enter into a trade, so I donāt use it to stop me from entering one.
I try to keep it simple you know?
Thatās your strategy and appetite for risk, so I respect that.
From an outsiders perspective though, you gotta see my point about doubling up your risk, when the correlation is going to be pretty much perfect for these two specific pairs.
At the end of the day, like I said itās your strategy and I have no financial stake in your future. Just callin it how I see it.
Take care,
Jake
No biggy. Everything is appreciated. Just went through the whole correlation and basket stuff and just said f*** it thereās correlations everywhere and decided to play it as i see each individually. Weāll see how it plays out except neither of the two have been triggered.
Any specific article you are referring to?
All pairs have some correlation, after all each currency is going to have a 50% stake in all pairs that have they specific currency. But as FoexUnlimited mentioned, there are a few pairs with extremely high correlation, such as the Euro and Swissy. I try to treat and 2 pairs with the at least 1 common currency as fully correlation(better safe than sorry), there are a few which truly have close to 100% correlation. Even for us who trade stocks and commodities, care has to be taken there also as some commodities and indices have very high correlation with certain Forex pairs.