Price Action That Matters

I did exactly the same thing, when I was trading on demo - I changed the balance to the same size as if it was my live account. I hope it goes well for you and that you can soon start your live account! :slight_smile:

Hi tse!

Thanks for your input.

Frankly, I don’t really get what you mean. To me, it is safe all the way down to my TP. Note that it is only about 50 pips. The TP area is a strong support for sure but I don’t see any above and that is why my sr line is drawn there.

Yves

hehe no problem… maybe i am wrong i am not sure with this. i made a screenshot of the areas i mean.
http://s1.directupload.net/images/131011/brd9gk5a.jpg
sorry i still don´t get it to post a picture in here :wink:
hopefully that can show my thoughts.
anyways good luck with this!

Ok, I see. Well, I will assume that this is a trade on the daily with entry fund on the 4hr. On the daily, this support is not obvious. Do you use mt4? If so, you can save charts from the menu on the upper left.

Thanks Mike, All of the members of this thread are awesome! I am sure demo accounts won’t be the only thing I say that is disagreed with, haha. Just give it enough time. I am glad you mentioned changing your demo account size. If a trader is going to trade demo I think there is a lot of value getting the demo to closely to what they plan on live trading. Again this doesn’t have anything to do learning a PA method, this just goes back to getting a traders mind conditioned to the realism of trading.
I know a handful of brokers that let you change your demo account size. I believe with some of them, you have to contact them directly to change it. If a trader is going to demo I would suggest doing this.

Hi Krugman,

it’s almost the end of the week. In your thread, what is the best time you’ll suggest for traders to do intraday trading? In the other thread, we stop trading when New York session begins in Friday (no more intraday trading for the last 2 x 4 hours of the week), and only continue intraday trading once London session begins in Monday (no intraday trading during Tokyo session, unless it’s about Asian pair).

Also, it’s nice to also hear your reasoning behind your suggestions. :smiley:

For me then, it’s already the weekend. Quality time with my family and loved one then. :wink:

I suggest traders stop trading Fridays intra day signal 4 hours before the close, Which is 12PM my time. From 12pm-4PM(when market closes), is when the most profit taking is occurring and volume can get very thin. Because of the profit taking and thin volume, you can see pin bars and engulfing bars that will form but have little credibility. If there is a daily candle that is forming on Friday, wait until Monday to set your orders, never enter a candle before it’s closed.

On Monday, by the time the Asian session has started, volume has picked up and spreads are low. If I had seen a good daily candle form on Friday, I will set my entry once the Asian session is underway. If I am going to start watching for intra day signals, I will wait for London to get underway. Not taking intra day signals on the last 4 hours of Friday is pretty important. When you start your trading on Monday it is a little less important, either wait for Asian or London session to begin. The main concern there is volume.

On that note, everyone have a great weekend. This Sunday will mark the official date that the thread has been going for 1 week. I think we are doing great here, and I look forward to seeing how it grows.

Hey tse,

I saw the answer on the other thread and I think that it goes in the same direction as what I said. Basically, we trust levels from the daily as they are stronger but we can move down to lower TF to find signals to enter a trade if price is at a relevant level. In this case, the only level to worry about was my TP. Now I am still not sure if it was a perfect setup, maybe not because of this little confusion. Unfortunately, whenever I start posting about setups, it doesn’t trigger any passion on any forum. Sometimes, I am asking myself if I am cursed or something :slight_smile: :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

However, I closed this one when I saw that support might well hold on a modest 10$ win. I know it’s not a good habit but I thought that if it works, it will have to be rather quick move and I really wanted to make sure that I spend this weekend without any open trades. I’ve had a though week emotionally because of 2 very bad trades I have been in since last week and I need a complete rest with a shift in attitude during this weekend !

Enjoy your weekend as well and talk to you again soon !

Yves

GrĂźzie :wink: pipin,

well, then i wish you a fast mindset-recovery and thanks for the nice little discussion. learned my lesson today :slight_smile:

EURCAD D1


A large and well defined pin bar has formed on the daily. The price action candle in it’s own right is tradable, but I am also looking at the fact that we are forming a potential double top pattern. There is a BRN just below, but the market has not paid much attention to this number and 1.4100 has much more evidence as being a key S/R level. I would also point out that this is a false break of an inside bar. Many times when IBs break out, retail traders will buy into a false rally, the institutional traders will sell into the rally and pull price right back into the IB. Not only does this hint to where the big players my be putting their money, but it has a psychological effect, because many traders who were burned in the false rally are much less likely to “give it a second try” which helps shift the balance of buy/sell orders to the short side. At this point the trade would be counter trend, but fulfills those stricter requirements we have to trade CT such as a large well defined PA signal a very key level. We may not see resistance until 1.3900 and again until 1.3700

All of this is assuming the pin closes somewhere close to where it is at right now.

A retrace entry could be made at 1.450, or an entry on the break of the candle which is yet to be known.

It was a dead week for me trading wise but this thread has been awesome.

Thank you to each and every one and specially Aaron.

Have a great weekend all and hope to satisfy my itchy finger next week.

Cheers

I really like this one. Currently it’s BEEB and as you mentioned, a double top. I’m worried at how deep the first retrace for the 1st top was, showing that the rally up was that much stronger. The 1st top had a clean break away but the 2nd top went through a lot of consolidation instead of a clean getaway. I’m guessing the previous history is being looked upon more around Sept to Oct 2011. This period and even before that shows A LOT of confusing S/R levels. In this regard however, a BEEB would show a lot of strength in the push down psychologically in my eyes as it’s completely overtaking the day as opposed to a strong retrace from a pinbar, But I’m not entirely sure as a nice clean double top’s 1st retrace to the 2nd top would be should be higher AND the fact that it could be a “juke” with many people cleaning up their accounts before the weekend as stated here.

The R:R however seems nice and if you zoom down to the 4HR you see a nice evening star setup :slight_smile:

It sucks when the weekends here :frowning:

Hey, Krugman,

thanks for your insight on this pair, but I have a bit different view and I wanted to share it. This pair has now been trading in range and the price has reached a key resistance level at 1.40700, however what I don’t like this time is that if I went short, then it would be trading straight into the boxing area as well as there is this BRN just under the EB (1.40000, although it hasn’t been respected that much, but I take it into consideration anyways). Also the BEEB doesn’t stick out from rest of the price due to this chop on the left. See how the previous signal (Pin Bar) at the same resistance sticks out and is away from the rest of the candles and there isn’t any choppy areas on the left, so the price could easily fall. I would rather wait for price to break the range and then after a retrace or using any breakout technique I would be looking to go long. But still the price might as well go straight to next support which is at 1.39600.

EUR/CAD D1


Richard

i was just watching the charts when i saw following pinstar pattern.
it is NZD/USD in H4. price is ranging since 2 weeks and both borders of the range were tested a several times and hold. i asked myself if i would trade this. imagine this one would occur on another time then friday afternoon. would it be a valid setup for you?
the only thing i could imagine is, the trend that led to the range, was an uptrend (look D1), so that it is maybe more likely that price will shoot through upper range (here i am definetely not sure and it is more a suggestion). which would mean that range-trades from the bottom would be better? (also suggestion)
but from my point view it fits
why:

  • pinbar: closes in body of previous candle, wick 3times body and outstanding
  • area: at top of range(key area)
  • swing high -> yes
    why not:
  • time (but what if time would be better?)
  • bullish pennant (in D1) and maybe break through range upwards (suggestion)

so for me a valid setup.

Good analysis looking at all of the dynamics of the market. Since posting the candle has actually closed as a large engulfing bar. The wick protruding past the previous candle looks fine too me. More importantly the wick is protruding well through major resistance. The downside to this trade is as you pointed out the areas of minor resistance. If someone were to take the trade these would be good candidates for moving stop losses to after a clear break and hold below these areas. Last week we saw many CAD pairs reject key S/R levels on Friday. The strong reaction again this Friday helps confirms the markets unwillingness to let the currency slide any further.

Since the markets closed I took a look over my charts again and the only good looking CAD pair is the CADCHF. This has formed a pin bar inside bar combo where the mother candle is a pin bar and also the child candle is an “pin bar like” candle.

I noticed that CADCHF formed a double weekly bullish pinbar that clearly rejects resistance @ 0.8765

What do you guys think ? i find the space to move is pretty good


But the price went further anyways despite of the rejection and I can’t really call it a strong if we are looking at the same CAD pairs and candle from last Friday… Perhaps I’m looking at something different then. Can you please show me an example, Krugman, what you mean by that.


Here are some examples of what I was talking about. We saw last week pin bars or rejections bars with long lower wicks on most of the CAD pairs. This week on the CAD pairs we saw another attempt to push price lower with the week ending in a 2nd set of pin bars and rejection bars w/ large upper wicks. With a second week of false breaks and price action signals, I think we will see the CAD shooting higher next week. I am still looking at what pair looks the best, but I will most likely set an entry on one of them come Monday.

Okay, now I understand, you were referring it to W1 time frames, at first I thought you meant D1, sorry.

Article

Step 2:Finding Key S/R Areas

Three steps to finding price action setups
[ol]
[li]Identifying a Trend
[/li][li]Finding Key S/R Areas
[/li][li]Watching for Price Action at these Key Levels.
[/li][/ol]

What is S/R
Support and resistance are areas where the market is likely to react to a certain price level. This reaction is created by a shift in supply/demand. While we as traders never know with 100% precision where price will react to in the future, there are tools that we can use to help us pinpoint those areas in the market and look to these for high quality price action setups. The principles behind S/R are easy to understand but using S/R tools correctly can take a while to learn and master. The reason looking for S/R is second on my list 3 step list, is because some of these tools only apply to certain market conditions. If you are in a range or a trend, that will determine if you will use EMAs or the Fibonacci retracement tool. Once you know your market structure you can begin looking at these various tools to find key S/R.

Why do S/R tools work?
Before getting into discussing about the various tools at our disposal, I want to quickly discuss why S/R tools work and what is happening at a market level to cause price action to form. First I want to start off with the most obvious fact and that is every trader is there to make money. This desire to buy low and sell high is what makes S/R key areas so powerful. Traders often look to certain tools to tell them that a stock has bottomed out or reached a top, and when enough traders look at the same tools and come to the same conclusion there is often a predicable reaction at these key S/R areas. For example if the 3 year high of the Dollar Yen is 110.00, and price is approaching this level, many traders will begin looking at this area for a potential short. This is traders are always looking for price to get too high, or too low and capitalize on it. Often these high/low price levels that have formed in the past continue to have powerful effects far into the future. This goes back to the name of my thread “Price Action That Matters”. It’s the “That Matters” part that I am talking about here. As long as these levels matter to the majority of traders, they need to matter to us. The only reason EMAs, Fibo retracements, trendlines and other S/R tools work is because they matter to the market. I want to really hit home that these tools on their own have no power, they only become powerful as the market uses them “en masse”.

What is really happening in these key S/R areas?
Price action forms at these key levels because of one simple principle, and that is the principle of supply and demand. These key S/R areas are where the shift in supply and demand happen, causing price action to form and often price reversals. Let’s go back to the Dollar Yen example. As price is accelerating to the 110.00 area, traders will notice that this is a 3 year high, and could be a good area to sell once price reaches it. Since traders want to sell when an asset is overpriced, the Dollar Yens 3 year high could represent an overpriced state. The more traders that sell into that area on that belief, the stronger the reaction will be against further bullish price movement will be. This is also why tools that have overlapping S/R can be so powerful. This assures you that even more of the market will be trading watching those key areas.

How Price Action plays into this
Price action helps us see the market reacting to a given S/R area. Have you ever noticed how sometimes the market strongly rejects a key price level and then just a few months later that same price level gets blown through without the slights reaction from the market? This all goes back to traders making decisions on whether that a certain price represents an extreme or not. Sometimes as price approaches a key S/R area, the market decides that this is a fair price, and will break through the level with little effort. Price often times will keep running until it hits another important S/R area and the market re-evaluates if it is overpriced or fair value. Because we never know what the rest of the market is thinking we have to wait for confirmation. That confirmation comes in the form of price action candlestick and patterns. pin bars, engulfing bars, flags, double tops/bottoms and many other PA signals tell us how the market is reacting to a certain level. There are two types of signals, reversals and continuation. In both cases, price action will tell us what direction the market believes price should be going next. This is also why I am a proponent of candlestick retracement entries. The initial candle has already given us the signal that the market is rejecting a key price level. Often times retail traders make one final attempt to push through the S/R areas. These attempts present themselves as price retracing 50-70% back up a candlestick before exploding in the opposite direction. While this can add extra risk to a trade, if done in the right way can provide tremendously larger RR scenarios, which will more than make up for the small increase in extra losses you might incur from the extra risk.

All S/R tools are the same
Knowing everything we know now, we can see that all S/R tools are essentially the same. While they all identify S/R differently, but the principle behind them is the same. The list of tools I use to find S/R are ones that I believe are most widely used in the market, and because of that are highly accurate in finding key S/R areas. Some of these are easier to learn than others, and easier to trade than others.
Note: All of the various methods I list below to find S/R, I describe as S/R tools.

Specific tools

Horizontal
Pros and Cons: This is the most simple to trade from and one of the most widely used methods to find areas of support and resistance. Trading from horizontal S/R is the easiest because it is very clear to identify when price action forms from these levels. Often price will move up to one of these areas and form PA candles before back in the other direction. In the case of horizontal S/R, we look for our price action candlestick to protrude out past the previous candles and break through the S/R area. While horizontal S/R areas are easy to trade from, they can be one of the most difficult to use effectively. One could find literally hundreds of minor S/R areas on any timeframe chart. As a trade you have to learn how to find those few, very key horizontal areas on your chart.

How to trade: Essentially and candle high or low could for a horizontal S/R, but the market will not react to most of these levels. This is why we choose levels that historically have had either the strongest price rejections or where many candle highs and lows formed. Obvious and large swing points are good candidates for horizontal S/R, also areas where candles seem to “run into a wall” and form many highs or lows can also be good candidates. The more price has previously reacted to these levels, the more engraved the S/R area becomes on the chart.


Diagonal (Trend Line)
Pros and Cons: Trend lines are much like horizontal S/R lines except can be harder to trade from and even more subjective in nature. They are traded from just like horizontal S/R, except good pullbacks may be harder to identify. Since trends move at a consistent up or down angle, you sometimes won’t get as large pullbacks as you would when price pulls all the way back to a horizontal area. With enough practice you can learn to find good quality pullbacks into a trend line.

How to trade: Using trend lines as a tool can also be difficult. In much the same way that someone can go overboard with horizontal lines, the same can be done with trend lines. I treat these the same way as the horizontal S/R tool, which is I look for the most obvious areas where price has made major swing points, and see if they all fall accurately on a trend line. A big rule of drawing trend lines is never draw lines through price. None of your trend lines should show that price has breached or broken through before. When looking for price to reverse in a key S/R area you want price to originally be moving away from the area and then pullback. It’s when price pulls back to these areas that we look for PA to enter the trade.

EMA
Pros and Cons: EMAs can be one of the hardest tools to find trades from but one of the easiest to set up and use. The reason EMAs are difficult to trade from is that the level you are looking to for S/R is dynamic and always moving with the price. Since the price pullbacks are not nearly as deep (EMA is always moving with price), it can be harder to find the right amount of pullback to look for price action. Also these tools are only used in the case of trends or strong price momentum; in any other market structure they provide little or no benefit. Since everyone using the same chart and same EMA settings will see the exact same lines, it makes them much less subjective. The only downside is that people use different settings for their EMAs, so it’s best to pick settings that are most common in the market seems.

How to trade: In a trending or strong momentum market, you can look at pullbacks into EMAs for price action to form, signaling the market is rejecting those price levels. As a trader you can use the 8EMA as your short term S/R and 21EMA as your medium term S/R. There will be a gap between the 8 and 21 day EMAs. This gap represents any EMA setting between 8 and 21, and helps you capture a majority of traders who use numbers between 8 and 21 as common S/R tools. You can watch for price to pull back and pierce the area between your 8 and 21 EMA lines and form price action signals.


Fibonacci
Pros and Cons: The Fibonacci tool is truly a measuring device. It is essential used to measure the retracement between the current and last swing points. These are only used in markets where there is a textbook trend occurring. There are a couple retracement values the market looks to, to try and find those overprice/underprice extremes. Those levels are 50%, 61% and 100%. There are other levels on the Fibo tool, but they are generally are reacted to the less by the market. The Fibo tool is easy to trade from as the levels it creates are horizontal areas. The tool itself is not very subjective and other traders that use them are looking at the same levels.

How to trade: To use the tool, find the last swing high/low in your trend and draw your Fibo from the very top and bottom of those swings. The tool will show you each retracement level. Watch and wait for price to reach one of these key levels and form price action signals. The advantage of using the Fibonacci tool is that you will be trading with the trend.


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