Have a good weekend guys! That’s me done for the week, 3 trades, 2 modest wins and one break even (AUDEUR which I think I posted earlier in the week, turned out to be very frustrating, the trader 3000 was tested to the full degree but got out with break even) In the last three weeks I have made a profit of 300 plus pips with only one losing trade which is pretty amazing and down to this thread and Dr Fox’s.
Have a good one!
BA
Hey Aaron,
Sounds to me you are getting addicted! Lol.
Wanted to congratulate everyone for making money and seeing their accounts going in the green.
Stick to those high probability trades and practice proper money management .Wait for the market to give you a chance to position yourself not the other way around,cause it won’t happen.
I see many newbies raising their standards, keep it to that you are traders now.
I wish all the very best of luck.
Cheers.
Glad to “see” you here Kas hope you are not just dropping by to say hello and that you are planning to stay
Cheers and thanks for all the help you gave and still giving me
wow Aaron, I blinked and 77 pages have appeared.
After losing money on every indicator known and a few EA’s and finally finding PA trading, I have had a couple of really good weeks now.
Also 3 weeks ago I realized I was getting sucked into some kind of euphoria when I made a profit, and seeing PA signals all over the place where there weren’t any; so I decided to limit myself to one trade per day max (no min), win or lose;
I ditched my automatic stop loss / take profit ea, which allows you to just enter lot size, SL & TP in pips, and a trailing stop. I figured I need to be sure enough of my game to not need a TS, and I needed to understand the risk/reward calculations properly. Babypips has a very good position size calculator and the I found the crosshair tool in MT4 will measure distances if you hold the left-click button and drag.
I focused on the pinbars only, and figured I’d master those before looking at other PA signals; and would ONLY trade with the trend, no retracements counter to the trend.
the results have been great.
Last week I had 4 wins and one loss, where CADJPY did weird things. I realize CAD-anything is hard to trade and less predictable due to the oil influence, so it will be a while before I use it again.
This week was great, closed 2 of last weeks trades and made 3 more. Account grew by 15%!
I have 3 trades still open. I used to always shut them down before Friday but I’m a little more confidant now.
I’d be interested in anyone’s comments on them though. They are:
long on audusd and nzdusd, short on gbpnzd. All three are well into profit.
I know the prevailing wisdon in PA circles is high R:R ratios, but I tend to wuss out at 1:1 as the markets just don’t seem to hold long trends these days.
Hey
Could you explain please how you did draw the flag lines? Mines are different and start from highs/lows
How do one knows how to properly draw it w/o adjusting the lines urself in order to make it look like a flag where there actually might be none?
And how important is the length of the flag(not the pole). How long it can go till it is disqualified?
I know it shouldn’t retrace more than 1/3 of the flag pole length, but if it goes in such an angle that it can go longer w/o reaching this 1/3 line, how long is to long?
Edit: Hmmm, I guess the same 1/3 of the pole length applies here as well.
Congrats on the big wins this last week! I hope that we can help you continue to improve in your trading. I agree with your statement on the CAD. I was seeing bullish movement on the weekly charts but bearish movements on the daily. In situation like that I would rather just sit on the sideline and let the market shake out.
Me and other will be glad at offer personal chart analysis and comments on some of the trader you listed, but to keep everything in here educational I would like you to post the screenshots of your trade, make a list of pro’s and con’s you see in the trade, and then rate the quality of the setup. Please refer the the rules page on post #2 for chart analysis requirements.
There are two schools of thought on RR and I have found it to be split down the middle. The thing is neither RR method is wrong, they can both produce good profit results. It all comes down to what method the trader wants. I do set a minimum then for this forum though because as your risk reward drops below 1:1, it really begins putting a lot of pressure on the trader to try and achieve very high win rates. If you run into a long streak of losses it can take a while to climb out of that pit. 1:1 or higher makes things manageable for the trader to recover from their losses. Don’t feel bad taking 1:1 trades, if you are achieving the right win rate you could be making just as much money as other high RR traders.
Hi Krugman:
I liked and enjoyed this video too.
First question:
In your other video (Price Action Pin Bar Tutorial 2) you said you enter the trade on 50% retracement (using Fib).
Now in this video you said we could open a trade on the S/R o on the candlestick break.
So I conclude that we may open the trade at any of these 3 points:
S/R line.
Candlestick break (this is what I used to do).
50% retracemente.
Please tell me whether I am right.
Second question:
In this video, the pin bar is a white candle (close above the open).
A bearish pin bar doesn’t need to be a red candle (close below the open)?
I am asking this question, because you are very selective and strict to ensure high quality setup (and I love this). For example: your say when trend trading, the candle should be the same size (or a little less) as the previous one. When counter trend trading, it must be twice the size of the previous one. In range trading it may be around 1.5 the size of the previous one.
Also you use five stars to rate a setup.
So I wonder whether the color of the pin bar may affect the setup quality.
Thanks in advance for your reply!
Thanks for the very kind word, Kasravi! Guys, you know what that means? We are no longer part of 95% losers, and start getting into the elite circle 5% winners (or around 70% losers and 30% winners for the more realistic statistics, but let’s not be a buzzkill here)!
The moral is really high for virtually each and everyone here, and this is also where traders start getting reckless. Let’s follow Kasravi’s advice to “stick to those high probability trades and practice proper money management .Wait for the market to give you a chance to position yourself not the other way around,cause it won’t happen.” I’d rather see my annual ROI instead or weekly ROI because I know that we will have ups and downs in short term. Basically the same reason why we prefer trading higher timeframe and not lower one.
But in the spirit of freedom of this thread, I’m glad to say that I took 2 trades, 1 winning and 1 BE. Around 40% ROI. 
Ah, Swiss clockwork management.
Anybody here has any experience with Swiss Army EA? If it’s really good and it fits how Krugman applies his OCO strategy, this is indeed a hidden gem. 
That’s right UncleS. Either you choose Higher RRR with low Win Rate, or Lower RRR with high Win Rate.
It doesn’t matter, both give you trading edge -if you stick to the best of the best setup-, so you will still win in the long run.
Hi Aaron:
Excellent analysis!
Many teacher and education sites (including Babypips) say “never risk more than 1% of your account” (some say 2%).
I decided to follow this rule without fail.
But I make a change: instead of % of my broker account, I use % of my total money (large portion of this money is in my bank, not in my forerx broker account).
So my money management rule is:
[B]Never risk more than 0.5% of my total money.
[/B]Of cause I apply the fixed % rule without fail: if my account equity go low after a big loss, I transfer money from my bank to my broker. Then I will calculate the 0.5% of my total money to find out the amount I will risk now (this amount will be smaller than the amount I was risking before the loss, because now I have less money due to the loss).
40% ROI?! How much did you risk per trade?
[U]EDIT:[/U] It’s the return of investment aka the % of the SL you’ve placed or you meant 40% from the whole balance?
I don’t like to say the number, but let’s just say I have much more money in my bank account than in my trading account so that it’s still 3% risk in practice. More importantly, [U]I only risk the amount that I am comfortable with[/U]. [B]NEVER[/B] bet the farm.
But you have a point here. To be fair with the whole balance -including the bank account-, it’s around 18% ROI. Still not a bad start, isn’t it? 
My goal of doing all this is very simple. At the very least, the ROI from my trading must beat any ROI from long-term saving account, COD, or money market. And yes, it also must beat the inflation. Otherwise, I really am wasting my time -and more importantly, [B]my life[/B]- doing all this [U]mumbo-jumbo about trading and speculating[/U]. 
You are right, I will enter at a break of the candle or a retracement. In the case of retracement I will use various techniques to find the best area, either a S/R line, a previous candles high or if there are no obvious areas I will go with a straight 50%. In the video you mentioned I ended at the trend line S/R.
A bearish pin doesn’t have anything to do with it’s color, it has to do with it’s wick position. If the long wick is on top you have a bearish pin bar, as the market is signaling a rejection of higher prices. If the longer wick is on the bottom then that would be considered a bullish pin bar. The pin bar has a few rules that must be followed, but the way the real body closes isn’t one of them.
I am glad you listed specifically the things you like most about what I am teaching. This is just how I have learned how to trade and have always wondered what others opinions of it would be. I know there are quite a few tools, techniques and concepts I use that are not common in the world of mainstream price action trading. I am glad to see people be receptive to it.
I am glad to see you have have good returns on your last few trades, thats great news. Sometimes the cost of becoming a profitable trader are some months of underperforming long term investments. So I would want to caveat into saying that if a trader is either losing or just breaking even to stick with it because I truly believe with enough knowledge, wisdom and personal experience a dedicated trader can become consistently profitable.
krugman
I’d be very interested to know if you will be doing more live trades anytime soon, and perhaps, would you consider doing something like a live stream, where people can tune in to watch you show us how you go trough each currency pair and explain what’s good/bad/tradeable/compare time frames/correlation, like your daily routine when you wake up and check trough all your charts, perhaps take some questions from the chat in the stream as well.
And that stream can be recorded/downloaded afterwards of course.
Just a question/suggestion
Hey wm247,
I will be doing a bit of research on it next week and let you know my results. So far, I have added it to a chart on one of my demo MT4 accounts and I placed a buy stop and a buy limit but never really got given the chance to place any conditions on them so I have no clues how it works. Beside this, as it is supposed to manage SL and TP, I would really have to know for sure what exactly it does before using it on a real trade as I don’t want to lose control over my overall plan.
Also, I will dig into the other EA’s code to see if I can maybe just keep the lines that define an oco and get rid of the automatic order placement thing. That’s what I usually do, I don’t have the skills to program from scratch but I am able to understand and make little change to an existing code. Will let you know how it goes.
EDIT: I opened a thread on the EA section of this forum:
Yves
I am glad you asked this as I am getting ready to launch quite a few on my PA teaching adventures. I’ve mentioned that I will be launching my new and redesigned web site, but I haven’t really elaborated on what all of it will entail. So here is my planned timeline. At the launch of the website it will already have forums, live trade setup , PA articles , Psychology and video tutorials area. What I have planned in the near future are live webcast weekly market commentary. These will be shown live and also recorded and saved for view if visitors aren’t able to watch it live. I plan on creating a college like PA course that will be in the form of 40-60 hours of learning videos. I am currently working on creating a more rule based and “book” style version of my teaching that would have a format that would look much like a book you would buy on amazon. Finally I am working on a fairly advanced volume/price indicator that will help identify if rejection candles are actual rejections or take profit/corrective moves. It will also help gauge the strength of pin bars and other rejection candles. I will embed currency charts into the website and run the indicators online so that users can use it to help supplement their PA trading. I can imagine it would be a thing where if a trader finds a PA signal they want to take, they will be able to drop by the website and use the indicator to identify why the candle formed and it’s potential strength.
The effectiveness of a thread like this has limits. Being able to create courses and lessons that take a trader step by step in learning PA is something I can only do on a website format.
There are certainly big things coming in the near future. My website is not up yet because godaddy is still giving me problems. Hopefully I can get it up sometime tomorrow.
Wow ! That sounds like many sleepless nights ! Don’t forget to keep some spare time for the loved ones !
Looking forward to it !
Yves
