Maybe it’s just me but that chart isn’t selling me. First I would have to say we don’t pay any attention to intra day candles during the last half of the US session on Friday. There are often pinbars that form due to profit taking and light volume. So for that reason any hourly trade wouldn’t be tradable, but just for the sake of learning I will pretend it wasn’t on friday. It seems to me that pin is pretty small. Yes it is larger than the previous bar, but overall it is still small. It could just be the way the candles are scaling though. Also this is a fairly small amount of candle data, I am not looking at my broker charts right now but I would only take a candle on a minor S/R like that only if price is really moving hard in one direction. If price is meandering around in a range or a movement is losing steam then trying to trade minor S/R levels will most likely lose. In those cases we just stick to key daily S/R levels.
The two trades that I took and posted this past week were unique situations where I had all of the the right market conditions for that type of minor S/R pullback trades. Any other market conditions and those would have been very high risk setups and ones I would have never taken.
hmm…i took the aud/cad trade at the bottom of the flip support and im out of tht trade. luckily it worked out for me as like u said there wasnt a valid pa signal. As for gbp/us pair perhaps the pa currently isnt justifiable enough to take a trade. on the daily chart it is almost on the bottom of the trend channel though and the usd is facing weakness.
BTW, after I think about the issue of ROI more carefully, I strongly suggest each and every member here [B]NOT[/B] to have somewhat unhealthy competition in the future to show-off their ROI in regular basis. First of all, some members will feel uncomfortable with that. Now it’s just the somewhat-innocent weekly ROI, but what’s next? Everyone to post their Myfxbook account? Kasravi once said that it is none of your business, and I agree with that.
Also, that will push those weak-willed to either risk more than they normally should, or take even crappier trade setup to simply ‘keep up with the Jones’, while in a cruel irony sacrificing their trading edge in the long run. In short, the cons weigh more than the pros.
Let me share you a little story about Long-Term Capital Management. At its height, LCTM was one of the most successful hedge fund in the history of mankind. I’m talking about a fund management led by 2 Nobel Laureates in Economics [B]Myron S. Scholes and Robert C. Merton[/B], and a bunch of elite genius from the best universities in the world (Harvard, MIT, Caltech, you name it, they have it). Even then, during their best year in 1994 and 1998, LCTM fund only showed an [B]ROI of ‘merely’ 40% per year[/B]! It collapsed later because of the combination of their excessive greed and stubbornness, but that will be the story for another day. Or you can read it yourself on the book When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management.
For me personally, I’ve told you before that I’m delighted if at the very least my trading beats the inflation and generates more ROI than any return from safe-but-boring investment vehicle like long-term saving account, certificate of deposit, and money market. And I don’t do this for ‘say’ a little more money to buy some beers or have a fancy dinner at the end of the month. I want to keep the money in my trading account balance for the next 10-20 years at least. In fact, I envision 50 years of successful trading career so that my account will generate impressive compound interest in my ROI.
But all in all, I don’t really care if I double the amount of my money within a week or two. [B]What I do care -and I strongly urge each and every trader here to think the same- is that my trade plan works well, it fits my personal strategy, and I enjoy doing all this personally[/B]. Some might say that I’m not ambitious enough as a trader, but I disagree. If you ever read the ‘Intelligent Investor’ by Benjamin Graham, there is a great timeless advice that I truly believe as a trader myself. A cynic once told G. K. Chesterton, the British novelist and essayist, “Blessed is he who expecteth nothing, for he shall not be disappointed.” Chesterton’s rejoinder? “[U]Blessed is he who expecteth nothing, for he shall enjoy everything[/U].”
[QUOTE=“EternalNewB;553278”] Aaron can you please give me your perspective on that ? thanks[/QUOTE]
I’ve been avoiding all of the CHF pairs. They have been way to erratic and choppy. If you zoom out you can see that price in this area is just messy.
EUR CAD has been in a up trend since August 2012 making constant higher high and higher lows and it looks like it is getting ready to break another major resistance line at 1.4075
a fakey setup in favor of the uptrend formed on the 11 14 and 15th of this month
the pin bar of the fakey was rejected by both EMA8 and EMA 21
on the next day we have a bearish movement with a BEEB that was clearly rejected and followed by a strong bullish candle as 2BR with a increase in volume
Personally, I am not taking it. You mentioned the weekly. What I see on the weekly are 2 bearish pinbars in a row followed by a bullish one which hasn’t yet invalidated the last bearish one. Also the level it is at doesn’t make you feel like buying really. Just my 2x10^-10 cents
Edit: Someone tell me if I’m wrong but I think this pinbar you mention is a hanging man and it is a reversal signal
i also think tht if it breaks resistance line it could go up are u saying u are going to for a long position now or u are waiting for a pa signal to form?
Hey everyone, I am pretty thrilled as I launched my website today. I am still trying to figure out how all of this works but things are coming together very well.
I will be putting a bulk of my live trade setups and chart analysis on my website, and periodically selecting some to post here in babypips. I will also be posting chart analysis that will only be here on babypips. This way both my website and my threads each have their own unique content. All full articles and videos will be posted both here and on the website. I will be splitting up my time between here and there so expect to see me a little less in the forum.
I have also been giving a tremendous amount of 1 on 1 help to members of these threads and I will not be able to do that as much. I want to make sure I am working towards high value material such as weekly webcasts for market analysis and working on creating a PA course. You guys have been great here and I look forward to seeing how things grow.
Good to see you making progress on your endeavors:)
But Dear Aaron
I have some questions/concerns…
With all this work/effort put in, will you still remain solely as a teacher or you will introduce some sort of pay for content/course later on?
Another thing that bothers me (And I know for a Fact some others as well) is that, If you teach others then I assume you are very experienced in the fields of Forex market and make good, if not very good profit, which leads to a question, why would you have a “Donate” button on the front page of your webpage?
Please take it with a grain of salt.
Of course I see there being a few reasonable explanations for the Donate button, but I reckon these questions might pop for others to, so why not give your own take on them rather than have people make assumptions.
Respectfully, SkyHigh
p.s
Also, I can’t seem to find the register button for the forum on your website.
You and everyone who has been following me have my word that I will never charge for price action information. While most give away the basics for free and tuck away the advanced materials for members only, I have and will continue to provide price action articles for free and help out traders. I may someday create some value added services that I would charge for, but the price action teaching will keep being produced free of charge.
While I don’t charge for anything, I do spend a tremendous amount of time and effort producing articles. If a trader has grown from what I have freely provided and wants to say thank you for the time and effort I put into my learning material, it is simply a way for them to say thank you. My wife and I donate to organizations throughout the year, not because they are hurting for money but because we appreciate what they do, the concept is the same. I would add on, if anyone has an issue with a donate button(which is a free will option), they should consider the fact they will never see my articles tucked away in a members only area.
I am still trying to figure out the forum thing, thanks for letting me know though! Also I am looking for a better way to lay out the videos. I had to rebuild up the whole site because it wasn’t transferring correctly, so it’s pretty good work for 1 day.
Long story short, I’m a believer of trend lines and MA levels now. Man that 200 EMA is incredible when put with other levels of confluence.
I was never a believe because of the whole “it’s very subjective” issue but I’ve given some serious thought to trend lines. When you see 2-3 distinct swing points on the daily and they match up, it’s honestly not as subjective as you may think. It’s actually clear as day and if I see it, I’m sure a million others see it as well. Yes the angle may vary a bit but that’s the same as saying my S/R level is like yours, just a tad off and thus giving a totally different view. Here’s a clear example of trendlines working with other levels of confluence on the USDCAD.
However, sometimes, its hard to see trendlines at work when theres so many and thus, you get what’s called trend line paralysis where all you see is a web of lines on your charts, much like going S/R line crazy. It also gets confusing when there are a lot of swings and it just doesnt line up with anything, in which case, I’d dismiss the line.
My question(s) regarding trend lines:
Which time frames do you use to draw them?
Do you consider weekly and monthly trendlines on the daily?
Do you use only swing points? If you do, do you use only the recent swing points? What about levels where there is no clear swing, but rather a lot of consolidation? Do you skip some swing points?
Any other opinions are always welcome and thanks for taking the time to read Man that 200 EMA…
[QUOTE=“semmee;553425”]Hi, I hope everyone is having a nice weekend! Long story short, I’m a believer of trend lines and MA levels now. Man that 200 EMA is incredible when put with other levels of confluence. I was never a believe because of the whole “it’s very subjective” issue but I’ve given some serious thought to trend lines. When you see 2-3 distinct swing points on the daily and they match up, it’s honestly not as subjective as you may think. It’s actually clear as day and if I see it, I’m sure a million others see it as well. Yes the angle may vary a bit but that’s the same as saying my S/R level is like yours, just a tad off and thus giving a totally different view. Here’s a clear example of trendlines working with other levels of confluence on the USDCAD. <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> However, sometimes, its hard to see trendlines at work when theres so many and thus, you get what’s called trend line paralysis where all you see is a web of lines on your charts, much like going S/R line crazy. It also gets confusing when there are a lot of swings and it just doesnt line up with anything, in which case, I’d dismiss the line. My question(s) regarding trend lines: Which time frames do you use to draw them? Do you consider weekly and monthly trendlines on the daily? Do you use only swing points? If you do, do you use only the recent swing points? What about levels where there is no clear swing, but rather a lot of consolidation? Do you skip some swing points? Any other opinions are always welcome and thanks for taking the time to read Man that 200 EMA…[/QUOTE]
I’m glad you see the light regarding trend lines and ema’s! The higher timeframe trend lines are pretty obvious but they can get more subjective when you drawing them on lower timeframe swings. That is a big reason why all major SR levels are drawn on daily charts. I do draw minor SR levels at lower timeframes when price is really moving hard in a direction and the pullbacks may be shallow.
I don’t personally draw weekly SR levels but it’s out of preference to just keeping it simple at the daily for my major SR. Although if someone wanted to do that I wouldn’t necessarily object.
It’s hard to answer your swing question because on a daily chart you might have a trend line along candles that aren’t swinging, but zoom into the hourly and you can clearly see the swings. So I would have to say no, I just make sure I don’t drawn lines through price, obviously with the exception of the false break pa candles I’m looking for. If you stick to the larger timeframes to draw your levels you won’t find yourself running into the problem if too many levels.
I don’t draw S/R lines and trend lines on anywhere but the Daily as it seems to be the most psychologically reasonable place according to the “masses”.
As for the last question that’s confusing, it would be only on the daily chart. There are big swings and small swings. My question (reworded) would be: Do you draw lines from 2 BIG swings and skip maybe smaller swing(s) in the middle? Or would you draw swings on every possible swing you see on the daily? An example would be on the USDCHF. On 7/10/13 and 9/6/13 there are clear up swings. On 8/14/13 there is a smaller, yet noticeable swing. Would you draw a trend line to the 3rd larger swing? Or would you draw it straight to the smaller swing?
Sorry, I think I make a little mistake with my semantic. When I say [B]ROI (Return on Investment)[/B], what I really mean is [B]ROE (Return on Equity)[/B].
In short, Return On Investment means ROI = (Net Income / [B]Cost of Investment[/B]) x 100, where:
Net Income = Income from investment - Cost of Investment.
Cost of Investment = (here I took all my losses, commissions and negative swaps).
Income from investment = (here I took all my profits and positive swaps).
And, Return On Equity means ROE = (Net Income / [B]Shareholder’s Equity[/B]) x 100, where:
Shareholder’s Equity = Your initial account balance before taking any trade.
Special thanks to Rick who pointed out about this issue. But now, let’s not get carried away with all this Accounting 101, shall we? I hope that clears someone’s confusion. Like I’ve said before, it was simply semantic and I do not intend to really start a crash course in Accounting 101.
Man that 200 EMA…
Man that 200 EMA…[/QUOTE]
