Hey Mike, actually I did set a pending on AUDCHF for the weekly engulfing bar =) . That signal fits my trading plan and I already planned how to manage it once it trigger.
I am looking at AUDNZD as well. Next will be AUDUSD Daily, since it coming towards the coming support area. Hope few days later will have a signal
Come on it is not cheating, we are all learning together. Someone once said in another thread we are hunting llike a pack of wolfs watching each others backs
I understand. You need to train your eyes to see potential setups. I just have shapes recorded in my head and I check charts to see if any of the shapes is forming and corresponding to my daily SR lines. If not, I rapidly move to the next chart. Once I see one, I go more in depth and look for PA signals, check the various level that could act as minor SRs and finally move down to a pip level to calculate Entry point, TP, SL, RiskReward ratio and position size.
Thanks my friends!!
Watching our backs it is.
You guys are great.
I’m on it. In a couple hours from now.
The purpose of posting potential setups, current trades and past trades is for education. A person can learn to trade price action just by seeing setups with analysis. Like piping mentioned, it also helps get your mind accustomed to identifying setups and market structure very quickly. A lot of the charts I post, I include the volume bars at the bottom, even if I didn’t use them in my analysis, just because I want traders to get use to seeing them. Unfortunately some traders try and use it as a signal service, without caring much about the educational value, but those types of traders don’t hand in long as it takes more than trading posted setups in a forum to be truly successful. This is why I almost always wait to post my live trades until they have already started playing out, because there are those that just want to use it as a signal service.
How does everyone feel about double tops? Play or pass? What makes you play one? Ive entered a couple this week which i will post, but in the meantime, id love to hear your thoughts
[QUOTE=“jpw0100;557364”]How does everyone feel about double tops? Play or pass? What makes you play one? Ive entered a couple this week which i will post, but in the meantime, id love to hear your thoughts[/QUOTE]
We can trade them here, but they are like any other pattern where the higher in time frame they form in the stronger the signal. Each pattern has its own entry techniques.
GBPCAD D1
Saw this pin bar this morning at work and took it.
Pros:
+Pin bar at swing high
+Rejected horizontal S/R & 1.6900 round number
+Greater than 1:1 RR, especially if it can get through 1.6800
+Good volume
Cons:
-Another support level at 1.6800
-Counter-trend
Price rejected at 3 year high - last time it was above 1.6900 was 02/2010… not sure if this is a pro or con? Either way, my goal is to ride this retracement down as far as I can before it resumes its uptrend, which I think will happen somewhere between 1.6800 and 1.6700 (and then I hope it forms another signal so I can take it all the way back up to infinity and beyond)
Background info: This is my first post here and I am new to forex. I do have successful experience in the stock market, but the profit potential is very limited unless you have a lot more money than I do (at least it seems that way). I’ve been reading about price action for the last year or so and I have been through the baby pips school. Never really thought it was possible to succeed until coming across this and the other major PA thread, mostly because I tried all kinds of other mechanical systems that relied on indicators and failed utterly 98% of the time. I’d like to thank the author and everyone else here for that.
So… thoughts? I am still learning how to read these charts and price action patterns, S/R levels, etc. all seem very subjective to me at the moment so I’m not 100% confident if I’m doing it “right.” Any feedback would be appreciated.
EDIT: Thought I’d mention that it does fit the conditions of my trading plan, and that since it is riskier (counter-trend) part of my risk management is moving stop to break even when it reaches the first S/R area.
Thanks for posting in here Aug! It can be a little nerve wracking to make a first post in a thread. You did a superb job on the analysis also! I can tell you come to the table with a bit of experience under your belt. My question about this setup is where did you put your stop loss? I am guessing you put it above the bar. I don’t have my charts up but I am curious if the 1.6900 level is a daily S/R level. In counter trend trading it is especially important to use the daily S/R levels for your PA signals, since momentum may just blast right through your price action candle. It looks like the setup started playing out, I would be curious if you were able to achieve your 1:1. My biggest complaint about this trade would have to be the candle size. There were 3 large bullish candles with very little upper wicks going into the pin bar. When trading against that kind of momentum you generally want a candle that is 1.5-2 times larger to really make sure you have a true rejection candle that formed and not just a profit taking candle.
Some of price action can be subjective, such as drawing horizontal and diagonal S/R lines. It’s kind of like drawing, 2 professional artists can draw the same thing and they will look mostly the same with a touch of the artists uniqueness. That bit of variability between the artists drawing is like the subjective-ness in drawing S/R lines. While we may not all draw the same lines at the exact same levels, they should at least be fairly close to what other PA traders are doing.
Thanks for the great post and I hope to see you around more.
Thanks for the quick response and advice on candle size; I think I read that in this thread earlier actually. I actually put my stop loss above the candle that confirmed the pin bar, which was about 50% of the original signal and above the horizontal S/R. The chart is hard to read, but it is a daily chart (I only take trades on the daily right now). It’s currently struggling at the next S/R level I marked, but apparently rushing through the math at work was a bad idea since you are right it’s only ~1:0.8 RR from entry to first support area where it is now… although I am up +60 pips and my S/L is at break even. If I see it still struggling in the morning I will probably close the trade early.
Calc posted below
To get your required % win you take (100/1) / ((R/R)+(1/1)). I attached 2 equations for a 3:1 RR scenario and a 1:4 RR scenario. If you have a know RR, this is the equation to find break even % win rate.
Wow, Aaron light bulbs are turning on over here! Well said!!!
hey aaron did u take the h8 pinbar on aud/usd trade?
I started my week with 2 losses Short EUR/AUD and USD/CHF
This made me lose all last weeks profits, on the good side math is now on my side I have higher probability of a winner next time 
Cheers
Aaron, your paint skills are worth more than most professional artists I can think of right now 
Very nice, Aug. I’m also coming from stock market background, but I mostly use fundamental analysis.
Don’t worry about pips. Believe it or not, you can end up with negative pips after all, and still end up with profit at your balance.
Even RRR by itself is useless. You can take like 1:0.5 RRR, but if your Win Rate is very high, you will accumulate your profit in the long run. Or, the way Krugman does it here, he aims for an extremely high RRR, say 1:10, and so his Win Rate can be so low from time to time. It doesn’t matter, he will still accumulate profit in the long run.
What’s the most important here is actually your trade plan, so that you will have consistency in any trade you’ll take. Have you written one yourself?
Anybody else took the (although a bit smallish) BEEB on AUDCAD D1 which we were anticipating for a couple of days? 
FTA seems to be around 0.97400, so I tend to let it run until that area. Only thing that might interfere is a possible support of the EMA21.
Keep following the plan ! You have the right to be wrong sometimes ! I also started with a loss which I will post later for discussion but all I do now is focusing on the next opportunity but without rushing.