[QUOTE=“mancamy;568081”]anyone watching CADCHF? - huge false break to the downside and now price reclaimed old key support level and price seems to be holding that level with two bullish pinbars on the daily chart…looks interesting…<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
That is a tough book to read as we have very bullish weekly price action with bearish daily price action. In those cases I think it is best to wait for a decisive move in one direction or the other. We have that huge bearish Pinbar a ways back that price has still been unable to break down past, which shows the strength of the long term bias.
Last time I took a profit on half of my position and BE on the other half. As things are looking now it’s undoubtedly a nice pin bar as far as it’s shape alone goes, but for me it’s totally untradable. I will sit on the sidelines, probably until it breaks out of this current range.
Still, I’m definitely very interested in what it does this week, I feel big moves in the air!
Master Krugman, as I told Diablo, last week’s NZDCAD trade was fun but as things are standing right now, I’m flat the NZDCAD, still long half a position on the NZDUSD and am not planning to trade 'em before they come alive again and break out of these ranges. Until then the chopfest can chop along without me
…on no! You too, Aaron. Looks like I am over trading again
So, how do you separate/score the nzdusd, nzdcad and audnzd trades out? (Know you are busy at the moment, but when you get a moment…)
I think I begin to understand what Krugman means by retrace entry, it took me a couple of days until it starts to click. Anyway…
Where do we put our stop once we take the retrace entry? For example, let’s say I have 5 star setup (Extremely rare! Nobody here has ever posted 5 star trade setup… yet. ), and so I choose 50% retrace entry that I believe will work. Where should I put my stop then? Is it highly subjective, or is there a cookie-cutter rule for this, or what?
I put my stop ten pips beyond the PA signal, EG 10pips past the tail of a pinbar…or if there is an s/r level a little ways beyond that point I make sure my stop is on the other side of it…I like wider stops
For example, please everyone take a look at GBPAUD H1 chart. We recently had a massive BEEB that turned out a winner. Good job on anyone who secured massive profit on this one!
Anyway, with break entry, I have two possible trade plan:
Now, if on the other hand we decided to choose retrace entry, how would we play it? Notice that we have a strong resistance at 1.72000 there. Anybody is free to respond, but I especially want Krugman to explain if he’s here.
Yup, exactly what Amy said, that’s how I do it as well. 10 pips beyond the extreme of the price action candles, so for example if you PA signal is a bullish pin bar, 10 pips below the low of that candle.
PA signals should mean that support/resistance was found and the move should now continue, so that’s why it’s save to place the stop there.
[QUOTE=“krugman25;568255”]Here is the question of the century(or at least the question of today), what is the better trade, NZDUSD or NZDCAD? Perhaps they both aren’t worthy of trading?[/QUOTE]
Ouch I see the issue here, certainly the Pinbar on the NZDUSD daily isn’t a valid Pinbar…I made a mistake there.
huh? not sure I understand why it isn’t a valid pin bar - looks slight diff depending on whether I look at tradestation or FXCM - but either way looks good to me.
anyway, I got triggered into the NZDUSD trade, I cancelled the other two orders - audnzd because price was already half way to the take profit price and hadn’t retraced (any retrace would be suspect now), and the NZDCAD didn’t retrace quite far enough to trigger me in and since I am already in the NZDUSD would not wish to double up on NZD. Let’s see how it goes…
huh? not sure I understand why it isn’t a valid pin bar - looks slight diff depending on whether I look at tradestation or FXCM - but either way looks good to me.
anyway, I got triggered into the NZDUSD trade, I cancelled the other two orders - audnzd because price was already half way to the take profit price and hadn’t retraced (any retrace would be suspect now), and the NZDCAD didn’t retrace quite far enough to trigger me in and since I am already in the NZDUSD would not wish to double up on NZD. Let’s see how it goes…[/QUOTE]
Hey Amy
I got triggered into the NZDUSD pretty quickly too and Im currently still in it but looking to close out with minimal loss. It may well work out but on close inspection I can see that on my FXDD and my hot forex charts the daily pin did not open and close with in the previous one, which goes against my trading plan, so I need to get out. I should have been more careful and taken a little longer to inspect it.
fair enough, BA. Hope this one goes well for you - so far it’s up 0.5R - my plan is to wait to see how the NY session goes and re-assess at NY close and get my stop to BE, if I can.
I don’t scale out/take profits along the way, it’s all or nothing for me…so it’s either a loss, a scratch or close for profit
[QUOTE=“mancamy;568417”]fair enough, BA. Hope this one goes well for you - so far it’s up 0.5R - my plan is to wait to see how the NY session goes and re-assess at NY close and get my stop to BE, if I can.
I don’t scale out/take profits along the way, it’s all or nothing for me…so it’s either a loss, a scratch or close for profit
Amy[/QUOTE]
I’m leaning towards sticking it out a little longer too. One of the initial things that drew me in was the potential for a double top that seems to be forming, also check the Pinbar on the hourly chart that happened about 2hrs ago into minor resistance, look at that massive spike in volume which would indicate that the market is very bearish.
Mr BA, it’s awesome that you have a clear plan, good man.
If I can give one generic piece of advice that you can choose to implement concretely in your trading if you wish, it would be this: The second you realize you are in a wrong trade, get out IMMEDIATELY and forget about the trade. 9 out of 10 times that I waited, I eventually got stopped out for a full loss. It’s simply not worth it. If you realize you’ve made a mistake, the most responsible thing to do is correct it immediately.
Mr BA, it’s awesome that you have a clear plan, good man.
If I can give one generic piece of advice that you can choose to implement concretely in your trading if you wish, it would be this: The second you realize you are in a wrong trade, get out IMMEDIATELY and forget about the trade. 9 out of 10 times that I waited, I eventually got stopped out for a full loss. It’s simply not worth it. If you realize you’ve made a mistake, the most responsible thing to do is correct it immediately.
Good luck all!
Cheers[/QUOTE]
Ahhhhh your right Cyanidez, I wish I’d not got involved with this one. It will teach me to be much more careful and I really should stick to my trading plan here, it’s just that pin bar and volume on the 1 hour has me fighting against myself now.
exactly, I saw your post about the double top and I agree intraday PA would so far seem to support more bearish action - let’s see how it rides out the USD news due out over the next few hours…
), and so I choose 50% retrace entry that I believe will work. Where should I put my stop then? Is it highly subjective, or is there a cookie-cutter rule for this, or what?
