hey guys - I made post #1760 before I saw your debate…I agree with cyanidez, but like everything in trading it’s a fine balance/full of paradoxes…
so, by the same token, if you did follow your plan and took the trade on the basis of your own analysis you should stick to your guns and not be swayed by other people’s views of a setup
Personally, I was, still am satisfied, with the setup, the pin bar is valid - it could be because I don’t have enough experience to filter out the lower quality setups, in which case, this trade is part of my learning curve, still interested to hear from you guys as to why you filtered it out (fars, aaron)…cyanidez I wasn’t on the first leg down so I didn’t experience the choppiness of that particular swing, if i had maybe I would feel differently about taking this next leg down.
I am going to leave this one to run, if I get stopped out, so be it…
[QUOTE=“wm247;568383”] For example, please everyone take a look at GBPAUD H1 chart. We recently had a massive BEEB that turned out a winner. Good job on anyone who secured massive profit on this one! Anyway, with break entry, I have two possible trade plan: <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> Now, if on the other hand we decided to choose retrace entry, how would we play it? Notice that we have a strong resistance at 1.72000 there. Anybody is free to respond, but I especially want Krugman to explain if he’s here. :D[/QUOTE]
I only have a minute but I will try. If you ate your retracement just slightly lower tha the previous candle high it looks like it would have been triggered. You would have put your SL at the top of the candles high and taken profit where you felt the next daily support level was. You woulnt have managed it any differently than entert at the real, except you would be in a much better entry point and RR.
Well said, sticking to your plan is the first step of any consistency. What I can further recommend is if the trade should then turn into a loss, you go back and just figure out why. The next time a similar setup presents itself, you will know what to do.
[QUOTE=“wm247;568383”] For example, please everyone take a look at GBPAUD H1 chart. We recently had a massive BEEB that turned out a winner. Good job on anyone who secured massive profit on this one! Anyway, with break entry, I have two possible trade plan: <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> Now, if on the other hand we decided to choose retrace entry, how would we play it? Notice that we have a strong resistance at 1.72000 there. Anybody is free to respond, but I especially want Krugman to explain if he’s here. :D[/QUOTE]
I also wanted to add that you needed a modified SL to get a good RR on that, but your risk was fairly high of it triggering your break entry and then pulling back. In those cases when people with modified SL are getting stopped out, I would just be getting in. The other thing is, if at all possible you want your SL at the top of the candle, so you can get your high RR while still having your SL comfortably above the wick, instead of having it sitting right in the middle of the candle. Also the RR would have been similar between the two entries types, but you would have picked up 1 extra reward by entering at the retracement.
[QUOTE=“mancamy;568452”]hey guys - I made post #1760 before I saw your debate…I agree with cyanidez, but like everything in trading it’s a fine balance/full of paradoxes…
so, by the same token, if you did follow your plan and took the trade on the basis of your own analysis you should stick to your guns and not be swayed by other people’s views of a setup
Personally, I was, still am satisfied, with the setup, the pin bar is valid - it could be because I don’t have enough experience to filter out the lower quality setups, in which case, this trade is part of my learning curve, still interested to hear from you guys as to why you filtered it out (fars, aaron)…cyanidez I wasn’t on the first leg down so I didn’t experience the choppiness of that particular swing, if i had maybe I would feel differently about taking this next leg down.
I am going to leave this one to run, if I get stopped out, so be it…[/QUOTE]
Hi Amy
Ive just bailed on this one taking a 4 pip loss, I feel that this may well go our way but for me this is against my trading plan as the pin bar wasn’t valid for me. If I don’t stick to my rules then there is no point in me having a trading plan. Good luck with it though Amy! I hope it works out.
Hmmm… interesting. I still don’t really get it when you said the modified SL offers greater risk than retrace entry, but the rest of it starts to fit the puzzle in my mind.
Let’s revisit our GBPAUD H1 trade setup, but this time with retrace entry:
I think I choose a great case study as all of possible retrace entry emerge on this one.
Investigate the possible level for retrace entry. We have the high of the previous pinbar (1.72039), strong resistance (1.72000), or 50% of BEEB (1.71994). Captain K told us to pick the lowest entry (for short. I presume it will be ‘the highest entry for long’). In this case, we’ll go with 50% of BEEB (1.71994).
Don’t forget to incorporate buffer! 4 pips buffer should do the trick for H1. That gives us the pending retrace entry at 1.71954.
SL should be on the high of BEEB. This is H1 setup, so let’s add 4 pips buffer. Also the spread for SL, in this case 1.4 pips.
This gives us SL at H + buffer + spread = 1.72218 + 40 + 14 = 1.72272
With the pending retrace entry and SL all set, all we can do now is wait, or even pray.
Voila! Price do retrace around to our pending order, and later falls explosively from the third candle onward. :35:
[QUOTE=“wm247;568475”] Hmmm… interesting. I still don’t really get it when you said the modified SL offers greater risk than retrace entry, but the rest of it starts to fit the puzzle in my mind. Let’s revisit our GBPAUD H1 trade setup, but this time with retrace entry: <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> I think I choose a great case study as all of possible retrace entry emerge on this one. 1) Investigate the possible level for retrace entry. We have the high of the previous pinbar (1.72039), strong resistance (1.72000), or 50% of BEEB (1.71994). Captain K told us to pick the lowest entry (for short. I presume it will be ‘the highest entry for long’). In this case, we’ll go with 50% of BEEB (1.71994). 2) Don’t forget to incorporate buffer! 4 pips buffer should do the trick for H1. That gives us the pending retrace entry at 1.71954. 3) SL should be on the high of BEEB. This is H1 setup, so let’s add 4 pips buffer. Also the spread for SL, in this case 1.4 pips. 4) This gives us SL at H + buffer + spread = 1.72218 + 40 + 14 = 1.72272 5) With the pending retrace entry and SL all set, all we can do now is wait, or even pray. 6) Voila! Price do retrace around to our pending order, and later falls explosively from the third candle onward. :35: Do I get the idea correctly here, Krugman?[/QUOTE]
I think you did a great job laying out the trade plan for a retracement entry. If the trade is high quality, I never want to miss out on it, so I always use an OCO. You could have created 2 entries, the one you described here, and also the entry at the break that you mentioned in the first post. This would be a fairly common OCO order. Although the most preferable entry would be your retracement getting triggered.
[QUOTE=“wm247;568475”] Hmmm… interesting. I still don’t really get it when you said the modified SL offers greater risk than retrace entry, but the rest of it starts to fit the puzzle in my mind. Let’s revisit our GBPAUD H1 trade setup, but this time with retrace entry: <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> I think I choose a great case study as all of possible retrace entry emerge on this one. 1) Investigate the possible level for retrace entry. We have the high of the previous pinbar (1.72039), strong resistance (1.72000), or 50% of BEEB (1.71994). Captain K told us to pick the lowest entry (for short. I presume it will be ‘the highest entry for long’). In this case, we’ll go with 50% of BEEB (1.71994). 2) Don’t forget to incorporate buffer! 4 pips buffer should do the trick for H1. That gives us the pending retrace entry at 1.71954. 3) SL should be on the high of BEEB. This is H1 setup, so let’s add 4 pips buffer. Also the spread for SL, in this case 1.4 pips. 4) This gives us SL at H + buffer + spread = 1.72218 + 40 + 14 = 1.72272 5) With the pending retrace entry and SL all set, all we can do now is wait, or even pray. 6) Voila! Price do retrace around to our pending order, and later falls explosively from the third candle onward. :35: Do I get the idea correctly here, Krugman?[/QUOTE]
I don’t believe I said a modified stop loss entry was greater risk than a retracement entry. I believe I said the risk was still high, as in if price does pull poke out the bottom of the EB and then pulls back half way, you are going to get stoppe out of a potentially good trade. Where your stop loss is placed, people like me have our entries in the same area, so you are getting stopped out of the trade just as I am getting into the trade. Both entries techniques have a higher risk, but the retracement generally offers a greater reward for the risk being taken, and gets your stop loss in a more secure area.
I’m glad that I begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I’m hoping it’s really the way out, and not the light of an incoming train.
Yes, I also don’t want to miss out a high quality trade. I can give the previous GBPAUD H1 setup 4 star, maybe 5 star if you agree with that.
OCO does not seem to be available at Pepper or many MT4-based broker I know (MT5?), though. I think that’s when me and Yves back then decided to bring out this issue with EA and stuffs. Which we haven’t resolved until this very day.
Anybody here knows how to do OCO conveniently at MT4, or maybe MT5?
Hmmm… I still need to think about it, but I see the point you’re trying to make, Krugman. Let’s call what you’re describing here as ‘getting whipsawed’. I usually add some buffer in my pending order to avoid getting whipsawed, so that should reduce the risk albeit not entirely.
Anyway, I’m glad I have another tool that I can use in my trade plan. This is getting more and more about arts of choosing the better entry, and less and less of cookie-cutter method. Forex is getting more and more interesting, all thanks to CK.
Glad we are all learning, I am loving the possibilities of the retracement entry as well.
I have a question about that GBPAUD trade… would you honestly have rated it a 4-5 star when you saw the setup or do you perhaps rate it as such now that it has played out so well?
That’s actually a good question. We all know that in the financial markets, hindsight is forever 20/20, but foresight is legally blind.
I actually had been eying this pair for quite some time yesterday, but I was too tired and so I feel asleep. Only when I woke up later, I found out that the train had come and long gone.
But yeah, I believe I will rate this trade as 4 stars if I found out about it before falling asleep. At flipzone, plenty of space to move (see that V space before BEEB?), big and obvious PA signal. It’s an A+ trade setup if I borrow J’s old word.
Nice! And you are so right about hindsight, that’s why I was curious
Man you can’t tell me anything about being too tired, I also missed a couple of signals this month because I was just too tired to stay up until daily candle close time… in South Africa that is midnight! But it’s all worth it in the end hehehe.
can someone explain why we add a buffer and the spread? I think I know but just want to be sure
[ i moved my SL to break plus 2 pips to account for spread on the NZDUSD - in the face of fairly bullish price action in the first half of the NY session and i just got stopped out by 1 pip before price started falling away again…]
nice work explaining the retrace, WM. nice setup too, missed it though - I saw the inside bar on daily, suggesting a stall and reversal from the downward trendline (on daily) but didn’t take it because of the support line you have drawn on your chart - but would have made a great intraday setup - would also give this a 4 star.
Hey guys.
At work, but wanted to share this with you.
I took the CAD/CHF short this morning, like 8 hrs ago. I had plans with that. Wanted to go in stages with it, given my schedule. But anyway, I did make 22 pips with it. And if anyone has seen it lately, man, it has dropped a whole lot more.
I wanted to go much farther, but pretty shy about it. Now I hope it makes a serious retrace up, so I can get in on some more of it.
Anyone looked at this?
Man, I hate missing the train.
One of these days…(I so much dream about)…I will not be missing the action, cause I’ll be doing this day in day out for the rest of my life!
Thanks for listening.
Mike
hey mike - nice work getting on the short side of this one…I’ve been watching this pair from the side lines - was interested in the fact that it looked like price had reclaimed support at 0.8720 after a large false break, with bullish pin bars on the daily but after this large bearish day taking out those pinbars, clearly the bias is definitely to the short side on this one…I will be looking for retraces to 0.8710 to get short.
I checked the swiss army EA for you and unfortunately it doesn’t do what we need. However, it’s got another feature which could be helpful for the way we trade. It allows you to move your SL to breakeven after a certain amount of pips. Can be a nice to have if you don’t abuse it out of fear.
What you could do for now, which is what I used to do, is to only use the retracement entry strategy on the daily to make sure you have enough time to close the other order manually when one gets triggered. I would sometimes do it on the intraday when I was sure that I could check my charts every now and then but the daily is definitely safer. Also the retracement entry is riskier by nature so it’s not a bad thing to stick to the daily.
