Hi Richard - thanks for this, am still not seeing it! I thought the pin bar on my charts did just (maybe by only a pip or two) close within the range of the previous bar…but maybe I should be looking for a close further with the range than that.
Cheers
I am eager to see how the day ends for many of the pairs today, I have been eagerly watching for bearish movement at 1.3550 on the EURUSD. Price went very bearish almost at that exact point. I am in 1 trade right now, NZDCAD currently have made a 1:5 RR, debating wether I went to get out at 1:8 which is the first support, or wait for the triple top to be validated and shoot for a 1:15 RR. I went huge risk on it so I have made a small fortune off of the trade already. Overall it’s been a great week for PA signals and looks to continue to be that way going into the last part of this week.
[QUOTE=“krugman25;569003”]I am eager to see how the day ends for many of the pairs today, I have been eagerly watching for bearish movement at 1.3550 on the EURUSD. Price went very bearish almost at that exact point. I am in 1 trade right now, NZDCAD currently have made a 1:5 RR, debating wether I went to get out at 1:8 which is the first support, or wait for the triple top to be validated and shoot for a 1:15 RR. I went huge risk on it so I have made a small fortune off of the trade already. Overall it’s been a great week for PA signals and looks to continue to be that way going into the last part of this week.[/QUOTE]
Hey Aaron
Would you be able to post some of these set ups at some point? For me it has been a pretty dead week until today, would like to know some of the set ups I’ve missed.
BA
[QUOTE=“Mr B A Barracus;569010”] Hey Aaron Would you be able to post some of these set ups at some point? For me it has been a pretty dead week until today, would like to know some of the set ups I’ve missed. BA[/QUOTE]
Depends on how today goes but if I get back to my hotel room early I may be able to post the NZDCAD trade. There have been some back and forth about the quality of the NZD trades. I was surprised as many of then were clearly tradable and high quality. Even the AUDNZD shot up on Monday as I had anticipated and was an easy 1:1 or 1:2 depending on entry. I look at the intra day candle that some here said were not tradable, but when I got to my hotel an check, they were all quality and tradable. I may need to spend more time here focusing on price action candlestick formations and what is tradable and what is not.
Potential setup forming on USDCHF Daily
-trouble area of recent high is quite close
I second that…wld be awesome to get a run down from you Aaron of what was trade able and what not over this week as there have been a fair few setups and I felt hesitant pulling the trigger on some trades that turned out well…I think I also tend to use retracement entry too often (! Need to pay close attention to your latest article!) because when there is a big move with large momentum, I think you are likely to miss the train if you are waiting for a retrace, coz it flies right out of the gate, and I’m not on it 
Thanks
[QUOTE=“krugman25;569020”]
Depends on how today goes but if I get back to my hotel room early I may be able to post the NZDCAD trade. There have been some back and forth about the quality of the NZD trades. I was surprised as many of then were clearly tradable and high quality. Even the AUDNZD shot up on Monday as I had anticipated and was an easy 1:1 or 1:2 depending on entry. I look at the intra day candle that some here said were not tradable, but when I got to my hotel an check, they were all quality and tradable. I may need to spend more time here focusing on price action candlestick formations and what is tradable and what is not.[/QUOTE]
Thanks Aaron, that would be great. I would like a little more clarity about tradable set ups when it comes to pin bars, as you know I entered the NZDUSD trade but cancelled it as it wasn’t what I believed to be an official pin bar despite it setting up a nice double top. It’s clearly working out for people now but there was a lot of negatively about the NZD pairs at the time. You yourself asked the question are any of them tradable pin bars in one post. Im not interested in a set up service but I would like to see more set ups as they happen opposed to other threads where A plus set ups are only posted after the fact they have been successful.
I shorted EURUSD @ 1.3550 (12 hour shooting star/ pin bar) and I still holding my shorts for now, looks like the daily will close as a BEEB
Fantastic, good job! 
I also took a position in the NZD/CAD. I entered on a retracement (last swing high) and have now closed my position for a 1:2 (+95 pips). I am curious how you managed to get such a great r:r out of this move? I guess you entered on a lower time frame with a minimal SL? I guess it must have been the pin bar on the one hour and you entered on a retracement to 0.87570?
How come you took a extra big risk on this counter trend trade?
Since i am not able to monitor any lower time frames than the daily i am really happy with this trade!
The only other position i got in the market right now is in the AUD/CAD due to the weekly PA. I am +145 pips in profit and got my SL at BE. The daily chart is about to produce a huge 2 bar reversal signal right now and price is close to hit the closest support again. Will be interesting to see if price is able to push through it with this kind of momentum behind it.
Hey Mike - sure you are watching this, and hope you took your profit on your short - after another cheeky false break of key support at 0.87000, there’s now a fakey/BUEB forming (still some time to go to NY close of course) - but this looks like the bias change I was watching out for…given the large range of this BUEB, if I take an entry of today’s candle I am looking for an entry on retracement to 0.8755 nose of bullish pinbar shown
[QUOTE=“Mr B A Barracus;569034”] Thanks Aaron, that would be great. I would like a little more clarity about tradable set ups when it comes to pin bars, as you know I entered the NZDUSD trade but cancelled it as it wasn’t what I believed to be an official pin bar despite it setting up a nice double top. It’s clearly working out for people now but there was a lot of negatively about the NZD pairs at the time. You yourself asked the question are any of them tradable pin bars in one post. Im not interested in a set up service but I would like to see more set ups as they happen opposed to other threads where A plus set ups are only posted after the fact they have been successful.[/QUOTE]
Yeah I think we can get into posting live setups a little bit as long as it doesn’t become a signal service and people are blindly taking setups without learning why they should be taken. I asked if the setups were good, already knowing my own personal opinion of them. I know if I would have said they were great setups, then everyone would have jumped on board and agreed. I wanted to see what others thought without my opinion swaying theirs.
I won’t be able to cover all of them but I will try to at least post one of the setups this week with analysis.
I agree, should not be a signal service, I’m looking to learn a skill for life that I can apply myself and even pass onto others.
In fact, would also be interesting to see people posting trades that didn’t come off/was not profitable but which they still considered to be A+ setups with hindsight… 
[QUOTE=“mancamy;569074”]I agree, should not be a signal service, I’m looking to learn a skill for life that I can apply myself and even pass onto others.
In fact, would also be interesting to see people posting trades that didn’t come off/was not profitable but which they still considered to be A+ setups with hindsight… ;-)[/QUOTE]
I would like to see this too, and have posted my own set ups for discussion immediately after placing a trade here in the past. You and I both gave our opinion on the trade but I didn’t see any decisive input from peers on this until Richard kindly gave his opinion today.
Just to back my own post up, here is a trade I am taking right now for better or for worse:
I’m short on the 1hr GBPAUD pin:
It would be helpful to know how to pick a trade when there are two or three setups across the kiwi pairs as there were this week for example… Do you consider relative strength? If it’s a close call what other factors do you take into account.
I had already identified nzdusd, nzdcad, audnzd as tradeable for example and wanted to take one, but taking all three would have risked more capital than I was comfortable with so I am interested to know how you distinguished these setups in terms of quality or which you would have picked.
I have been trying to post setups as I am taking them, before I know whether they are profitable or not (EG usdcad intraday setup). I don’t just post after the fact to tell people how much profit I have made.
Hi - CADCHF: I didn’t trade it missed that one but looking at it now, huge nicely formed pinbar at key level and at same level as prior higher PA signal that led to the big false break to the downside, so I would have given that at least a 3 for what it’s worth (since am a newbie myself!). You’ll get some input from some of the more experienced guys in here no doubt. Downsides; large range PB so retrace entry to maximise RR and you’d want to think about taking profit/ moving stop at 0.8690. Things have changed by now though on this pair…see my post to Mike a couple of pages ago… Cheers.
[QUOTE=“mancamy;569080”] It would be helpful to know how to pick a trade when there are two or three setups across the kiwi pairs as there were this week for example… Do you consider relative strength? If it’s a close call what other factors do you take into account. I had already identified nzdusd, nzdcad, audnzd as tradeable for example and wanted to take one, but taking all three would have risked more capital than I was comfortable with so I am interested to know how you distinguished these setups in terms of quality or which you would have picked. I have been trying to post setups as I am taking them, before I know whether they are profitable or not (EG usdcad intraday setup). I don’t just post after the fact to tell people how much profit I have made.[/QUOTE]
If you have more than one setup across correlated pairs you have 2 options. Either choose the best and go with it or take your risk and divide it among the 3 pairs. So if you were willing to risk 3% and wanted to trade all 3 correlated pairs, you could have taken all 3 at 1% risk each.
Wanted to post a trade I placed last week that I just got out of last night to take a little more than 1:2 profit. Please feel free to comment or critique my thought process.
There was a huge pinbar on November 7th that had the body right up against my horizontal S/R line. With the wick extending through almost to my diagonal S/R line. I entered at 50% retracement and it triggered and began to fall. The dotted horizontal line you see in the pic was the next area of support that had been pretty strong many months back. I originally was going for about a 1:4 RR with a TP at .9025, but with that previous S/R line and a one hour pin bar that formed on the chart, I got out last night. And good thing, because price shot up today.
Ok cool - to me that seems like risking 3% all on the kiwi…looks like you don’t take account of relative strength. Qualitative factors being near equal (looks like you agree with me that the three were near equal…) then I feel more comfortable going on relative strength, makes logical sense to me. I’ll figure out a way to gauge this as scientifically as possible. If I come up with something will share it…
[QUOTE=“mancamy;569093”] Ok cool - to me that seems like risking 3% all on the kiwi…looks like you don’t take account of relative strength. Qualitative factors being near equal (looks like you agree with me that the three were near equal…) then I feel more comfortable going on relative strength, makes logical sense to me. I’ll figure out a way to gauge this as scientifically as possible. If I come up with something will share it…[/QUOTE]
I don’t know if I am completely following you. Whatever you are willing to risk on a single trade(1,2,3, etc %), if you have multiple correlated pairs that have good setups, you will want to spread your risk among the number of correlated pairs you are trading. That way you are guaranteed to not over risk. Most likely if 1 of the trades goes south, all of the trades will go south. If my max risk per trade is 2% and I have 2 USD setups, I will trade both setups but with 1% risk each. I know I will have no more than 2% risk on USD pairs.
