BA - GBPAUD: IMHO I like the idea, personally I don’t take 1 hour signals at extremes, so would be good to hear from someone who does, although there is a downward trend line which your 1 hour pin is rejecting which is good…just wonder if, it’s poss price has a little further to go to .7289/.7290 before reversing, I’d be looking for a larger PA. Otherwise great potential. Even if gets stopped out you’d have another chance to get in with a wider stop on a higher timeframe and the RR potential makes it worth it.
Late here now, not taking any trades tonight, need to revisit my notes / filter checklist before placing any trades to re connect with all of Aaron’s good material…
[QUOTE=“mancamy;569102”]BA - GBPAUD: IMHO I like the idea, personally I don’t take 1 hour signals at extremes, so would be good to hear from someone who does, although there is a downward trend line which your 1 hour pin is rejecting which is good…just wonder if, it’s poss price has a little further to go to .7289/.7290 before reversing, I’d be looking for a larger PA. Otherwise great potential. Even if gets stopped out you’d have another chance to get in with a wider stop on a higher timeframe and the RR potential makes it worth it.
Late here now, not taking any trades tonight, need to revisit my notes / filter checklist before placing any trades to re connect with all of Aaron’s good material…[/QUOTE]
It will be interesting to see how it plays out, it was a lovely pin bar but we will see, RR is good though. I’m a sucker for the 4hr time frame myself! There are some awesome engulfing bars out there tonight but I haven’t found any I want to trade as they all seem to be trading into resistance plus RR doesn’t look good, perhaps I’m missing something.
BA - I say go with it, it’s a great pin, hope you get a good chunk of cash buddy
Agreed - not got into trading engulfing bars yet coz range is usually big so RR usually less…got add them to my arsenal, especially seeing tonight’s charts!
Hey everyone, as mentioned I will post my NZDCAD which is a live trade that is currently open, no take profit level, and no plans to close the trade in the near future. There are a large number of things I looked at when I took this trade. This chart has a fantastic structure. First lets look at the CAD by itself. We saw on almost all CAD pairs just a few weeks back, very large bullish englulfing bars and two bar reversals on the weekly charts. This tells use that at least the weekly level, there is a bullish bias. Understanding how time frames work, I know it can take a while for the bullish weekly signals to begin reflecting itself in lower timeframes, such as daily and intra day. We can see on the bearish daily signals against the CAD struggling against the bullish weekly candles. With this in mind, I am waiting for signals to get in line with the longer term bullish CAD bias. In the NZDCAD we had a 3rd failed attempt to break record highs. This to me are big red sirens going off to get short if a retracement presents itself. The 3rd daily pinbar was far too large to get in at the break, the RR would have not been good enough. While the pinbar was too large to trade by itself, it was another red light that the market just didn’t have the umph to push higher. The market is simply saying there is no justification for higher prices, and is rejecting any price movement past the resistance area. With each failed attempt it decreases the chance that the next attempt at breaking the resistance will succeed. I had my eye on it to get in on a deep retracement in the case that price pulled up to resistance again. Crawling into bed last night I checked my phone charts and saw that price had pulled all the way up to that resistance level again and was forming a 1 hour pin bar at the resistance level. Given the price I got in at, I had a SL of around 20 pips. Given the small stoploss and the very small likelyhood price would break the resistance level, I sold with a very high risk% of my account. We can see that price has collapsed hard today and as of writing this article I am at a 1:7 RR. Given the strength of the sell off today and the weekly price action, I think price could fall much farther than it is right now. Given the overall market structure and the intra day bearish price action that formed right up at the major resistance, I would given this a 4 star. The only thing that kept it from being 4.5 or 5 star trade is the lack of volume confirmation, and the somewhat messy price to the left. Also, without a deep retracement entry, this trade would not have been as profitable.
[QUOTE=“krugman25;569147”]Hey everyone, as mentioned I will post my NZDCAD which is a live trade that is currently open, no take profit level, and no plans to close the trade in the near future. There are a large number of things I looked at when I took this trade. This chart has a fantastic structure. First lets look at the CAD by itself. We saw on almost all CAD pairs just a few weeks back, very large bullish englulfing bars and two bar reversals on the weekly charts. This tells use that at least the weekly level, there is a bullish bias. Understanding how time frames work, I know it can take a while for the bullish weekly signals to begin reflecting itself in lower timeframes, such as daily and intra day. We can see on the bearish daily signals against the CAD struggling against the bullish weekly candles. With this in mind, I am waiting for signals to get in line with the longer term bullish CAD bias. In the NZDCAD we had a 3rd failed attempt to break record highs. This to me are big red sirens going off to get short if a retracement presents itself. The 3rd daily pinbar was far too large to get in at the break, the RR would have not been good enough. While the pinbar was too large to trade by itself, it was another red light that the market just didn’t have the umph to push higher. The market is simply saying there is no justification for higher prices, and is rejecting any price movement past the resistance area. With each failed attempt it decreases the chance that the next attempt at breaking the resistance will succeed. I had my eye on it to get in on a deep retracement in the case that price pulled up to resistance again. Crawling into bed last night I checked my phone charts and saw that price had pulled all the way up to that resistance level again and was forming a 1 hour pin bar at the resistance level. Given the price I got in at, I had a SL of around 20 pips. Given the small stoploss and the very small likelyhood price would break the resistance level, I sold with a very high risk% of my account. We can see that price has collapsed hard today and as of writing this article I am at a 1:7 RR. Given the strength of the sell off today and the weekly price action, I think price could fall much farther than it is right now. Given the overall market structure and the intra day bearish price action that formed right up at the major resistance, I would given this a 4 star. The only thing that kept it from being 4.5 or 5 star trade is the lack of volume confirmation, and the somewhat messy price to the left. Also, without a deep retracement entry, this trade would not have been as profitable.
Wow that is a great entry, thanks for posting this and explaining your thought process. I’d love to get in on a trade like this, I hope you get lots more pips on this one.
I’m having a lousy week, the GBPAUD I posted earlier just went Kabooooom! I’ll study it tomorrow and try to understand why I shouldn’t have taken it.
I would like to post more but the internet at my hotel is terrible. I am on my over the NZDUSD Pinbar. I heard a lot of different opinions about it, I did just want to talk about a few of the other setups. I got a chance to look, and it is clearly a high quality setup. There are two previous swing highs that line up perfectly to the middle if the pin bar showing a deep false break of that resistance level. We can also see that price did have a deep retrace before shooting lower. If I didn’t already have my margin tied up in other trades I would have shorted that trade on a retracement and went very high risk. These kind of trade setups with deeply embeded resistance areas and a nice large false break pin bar are often very high probability setups with low risk of failure. I think there were people that originally were wanting to short the trade and were talked out of it. As a trader you need to be confident in your trade analysis. While it is ok to ask others for opinions you ultimately need to be confident in your analysis and take your trades, otherwise you will certainly miss out on good opportunities and live in regret. Back when I follow Nial Fuller closely, quite a few times I traded against his daily analysis. There were times I opened trades and his daily analysis was opposite the trade I opened. I would get discouraged in my analysis, close my trades, just to watch it shoot off in the direction I originally predicted and missed out in big profits. This happened a lot and I eventually started putting faith in my analysis and not letting others opinions of the charts dissuade me from taking a trade or keeping a trade open. I just wanted to use a personal example to help others. Whether you win or lose a trade, make sure it’s because you made the decision for yourself, not because someone else made it for you.
Captain, don’t forget our plan at M2M site. We want to start accumulating all those 4 and 5 star quality trade in our repository for our references in the future. With all great setups appearing here and there lately, we should now take that plan into real action. We have sown the seed, and indeed, it will germinate.
If anybody here is interested, just post all trade setups that you think at least fits 4 star quality. If Krugman approves it that it’s indeed 4 star or even 5 star quality, we can proceed to save it in our repository folder. EternalNewB will also let you know about this plan if you want to know further.
I think you have way overthought it. Relative strength or not, scientifically sound or not, it still doesn’t change the fact that all is about Kiwi pairs.
[QUOTE=“wm247;569167”] Captain, don’t forget our plan at M2M site. We want to start accumulating all those 4 and 5 star quality trade in our repository for our references in the future. With all great setups appearing here and there lately, we should now take that plan into real action. We have sown the seed, and indeed, it will germinate. If anybody here is interested, just post all trade setups that you think at least fits 4 star quality. If Krugman approves it that it’s indeed 4 star or even 5 star quality, we can proceed to save it in our repository folder. EternalNewB will also let you know about this plan if you want to know further. ;)[/QUOTE]
Thanks for the reminder. Besides my website, I will also create an area on the quick nav. area of the thread for 4-5 star trades. They don’t occur often but over time we should accumulate a decent amount of them.
Well in off to bed now. I have spent the first part of the week in Port Arthur, Tx and tomorrow night I will be staying in Houston, Tx before I get to fly home. Looks like I will get to spend some time next month in Orlando, Florida. I can dig that. As Willy would say, party in the USA, haha.
I love this thread and all the participants and know that we are all just trying to help each other out, but this has been my exact experience as well. The moment I finally stopped to listen to the gurus, especially multiples of them at once (what a nightmare that was), I could actually start thinking for myself and understand why I am trading the way I am.
This certainly excludes you, Aaron. Like you said this is not a signalling service but a thread to equip us with the tools to make PA trading our own… love it.
A couple of posts back Amy and Mr BA asked for some setups before it plays out completely so as not to be Captain Hindsight which is something I agree with 100%, so I gladly post a trade I recently entered.
Just remember that I only trade off the daily charts, so here is my short trade of the NZDJPY.
My two targets are pretty strange with this one, close to each other, but that’s the way I’m going to play it. However this trade works out, I’ll keep you guys updated if you are interested.
[QUOTE=“krugman25;569153”] I think there were people that originally were wanting to short the trade and were talked out of it. As a trader you need to be confident in your trade analysis. While it is ok to ask others for opinions you ultimately need to be confident in your analysis and take your trades, otherwise you will certainly miss out on good opportunities and live in regret. Back when I follow nial fuller closely, I quite a few times I trades against his daily analysis. There were times I opened trades and his daily analysis was opposite the trade I opened. I would get discouraged in my analysis, close my trades, to watch then shoot off in the direction I predicted and miss out in big profits. This happened a lot and I eventually started putting faith in my analysis and not letting others opinions of the charts dissuade me from taking a trade or keeping a trade open. I just wanted to use a personal example to help others. Whether you win or lose a trade, make sure it’s because you made the decision for yourself, not because someone else made it for you.[/QUOTE]
Wow this is gold dust and definitely addresses the issues I’ve been dealing with this week. It is very inspirational. I had been doing well lately but this week found myself doubting my decisions which has ultimately cost me pips. I’m still in one trade, the CADCHF short which I took from an intraday signal last night but after this one I need to take a break and come back fresh next week.
[QUOTE=“cyanidez;569194”]A couple of posts back Amy and Mr BA asked for some setups before it plays out completely so as not to be Captain Hindsight which is something I agree with 100%, so I gladly post a trade I recently entered.
Just remember that I only trade off the daily charts, so here is my short trade of the NZDJPY.
My two targets are pretty strange with this one, close to each other, but that’s the way I’m going to play it. However this trade works out, I’ll keep you guys updated if you are interested.
Have fun trading, cheers![/QUOTE]
Thanks for posting this Cyanidez, although I decided not to take any of the engulfing pin bars, if I was to take one it would be this pair. Good luck with it!
That is perfectly valid reasoning Mr BA. If you first master one setup, i.e. the pin bar, you will have a tool in your trading belt to last a lifetime and that is much more valuable than confusing yourself with too much now.
Eventually I would recommend you look into engulfing bars though, they have treated me very well ever since I started using them
Good luck man, we’ll come back refreshed and ready after the weekend.
your retrace entry looks so high up there. Why do you choose that one, and not -say- 50% of the BEEB?
I’m interested because while you put your retrace entry very close to the high of BEEB, you put your SL even further from the BEEB. How much amount of buffer you put there?
I might be wrong, but that looks very risky to me.
This was one of my first experimental trades with a more fine-tuned retracement entry. In this case the 50% would have triggered as well, but I rather used to previous swing’s closing price because price seems to have found resistance there time and again. The fact that the 50% did work is irrelevant to me because next time it’s not going to work and I might miss a trade, so that’s why I decided to enter this way.
As for the stop, it’s only 10 pips above the high of the pin bar so the R:R is good, 1 risk to 2.8 reward.
Hmmm just another thought, yes my entry is high but that’s a good thing because I am short… I might be misunderstanding your question? For this trade I consider my entry as very good.
