[B]An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary[/B]
[B]Bias:[/B] Mixed – waiting for breaks
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Hmm… we did see test of 1.0522-40 but also breach to 1.0561. This is the highest I could accept within an erratic downward move. Support is at 1.0515-23 and while this supports we should also be aware of the possibility of a more bullish structure. This would require a break of the 1.0561-70 area but would probably then stall around 1.0592 for a further pullback before another rally to the 1.0614 area which should cause a slightly longer pullback. Next resistance is then found at the 1.0657 high. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]The upside looks less certain now but if we see a larger flat correction then a move above 1.0542-67 would begin to suggest a move back to retest 1.0657 and possibly 1.0690 where the old trend line lies. ([B]July 9th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The deeper pullback higher is frustrating and does stretch the bearish structure but I could probably accept the 1.0561-67 area in an erratic downward move. Thus we need this area to cap with a loss of 1.0515-23 signaling a move to 1.0499 and probably all the way back to the 1.0443 and then lower. Next supports are then found at 1.0402 and 1.0366. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]The losses on Friday have retested the 1.0466 low but we need break there to extend to 1.0402 and probably further to 1.0366 with 1.0290 an extended target on the downside. ([B]July 9th[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
I feel the 1.0443 low probably provided a Wave a low and thus a 50% pullback lies at 1.0537 and a 41.4% at 1.0522. While this area caps look for losses in Wave c of Wave iii.
It’s not impossible that the 1.0561-67 area could be a deep Wave b in Wave iii lower. If so then we need a move below 1.0523 to signal a retest of the 1.0443 low and probable follow-through for the Wave equality in Wave [c] at 1.0366 and probably lower to the 261.8% projection in Wave iii at 1.0290.
Back above 1.0570 would imply an expanded flat and a return to 1.0614 then 1.0657-1.0700.
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