Pro Commentary Lite 12th February 2006 ... USDCAD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.1740

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish:Loss of 1.1800 saw a much stronger decline that reached the lower 1.1725-35 support, and a few points more to 1.1713. If there is to be a reversal back higher then we need the 1.1708-13 area to remain intact. A move then above 1.1744 will assist but confirmation of gains will be triggered only on a break above 1.1773-79. If seen then look for a move to the 1.1810-15 pivot area which could cause a pullback. Above moves back to 1.1850-75.MT Bullish:While we have seen stronger losses than anticipated the 1.1708-13 area is critical. While this can hold then there is still a scenario that would allow gains to 1.1918. Above 1.1850-75 confirms. (February 12th)Daily Bearish:Losses exceeded the 1.1725 support, but not by too much and thus we need be cautious about additional losses. There is resistance at 1.1773-79 and while this caps there is still risk of losses below 1.1708-13 which, if seen, would extend the decline to the 1.1644 low once again. MT Bearish:We still see the major risk for a move to 1.1918-28 before we can look for larger losses. Only below 1.1715 would provoke immediate losses to 1.1644 and possibly the 1.1584 pivot support. (February 2nd)


12th February

Although we were not really anticipating the decline to 1.1713 we still need to be a little cautious since this could just be an expanded flat correction from 1.1850. That will require the 1.1708-13 area to support being where a small internal Wave v would have a 61.8% projection target. If this holds, then a move back above 1.1800 would suggest we are seeing Wave c which would then have a target at 1.1918 where Wave (c) will equal 161.8% of Wave (a) and where Wave c will be equal to Wave a.

Ian Copsey
See Also

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