Pro Commentary Lite 13th February 2007 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 121.43

Bias:Cautiously we feel the downside should now follow-through
Daily Bullish:No test of 122.18 and this morning losses are developing and we tend to prefer the downside. Watch support around 121.26-32. This is the last area which could still fit within a bullish stance and a bounce from here would move back towards the 122.08-18 highs which could see a small pullback. Break above would allow the upside to extend towards 122.47 at least. Care here as this could cause a pullback. Next resistance is at 122.70-00.MT Bullish:Price is pushing higher but we require a break above 122.18 and then 123.03 to maintain the upward momentum for 124.00.31 at least else see a dip back to 119.41-70 before higher. (February 12th)Daily Bearish:Price failed to retest the 122.18 high and we have seen a break lower this morning. There is one last area to break to confirm additional losses – this being at 121.26-32. This may hold for a pullback but while this remains below 121.75 we will look for eventual loss of 121.26 and then 121.00 to see the downside extend towards 120.50-55 at least. Somewhere around this area we shall expect a correction. The eventual target in this scenario would be the 119.41-70 area.MT Bearish:Still no break lower and we still feel that the 119.41-80 area is critical if we are to see additional losses. (February 12th)


13th February

We feel the most likely pattern is a Flat from 122.18 and this should generate losses below any potential minor Wave iv retracement around 121.26-32 and an alternative Wave b at 121.00 to take us down to the 119.95 low again and probably the full 50% pullback in Wave –iv- at 119.41. We should however note pivot support at 119.70.

If we are wrong then we should see a bounce from around 121.00 as Wave –b- of Wave –v- and thus look for a final wave higher in Wave –c- of Wave –v-.
Ian Copsey
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