Pro Commentary Lite ... 14th August 2007 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 1.2034

[B]Bias:[/B]While 1.2078 (max 1.2123) caps there is still room on the downside
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The underlying expectation of a rally to 1.2078 developed without the earlier pullback. So far we have seen a peak at 1.2067 and this doesn’t quite look complete. While 1.2015-20 supports I still feel there is risk of a move higher to the 1.2078 target. Preferably I’d like to see this stall the upside. However, there is minor risk of seeing a mild overshoot – with resistance also around 1.2105-23. Only above here would cause stronger gains. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]The dip to 1.1814, while unexpected, does seem to fit in better to the LT downside target at 1.1664. Only above 1.2078 & 1.2123 would imply an earlier rally to 1.2218 and 1.2250-60. ([B]13th August[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The current decline should stall around 1.2015-20 and cause a test back towards the 1.2078 target. From this additional high or a clean break below 1.2010 I will be looking for the downside to begin developing again. There is minor support around 1.1963 which could cause a temporary pullback but overall we should then see the decline progress towards 1.1850 and then to around the 1.1814 low. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]The losses to 1.1814 seems to fit in with a move to the daily downside target at 1.1664. However, I feel a move to the 1.2078 area should be seen to launch the final move lower. ([B]13th August[/B])


[B]14th August:[/B]

The move down to 1.1814, while not retaining particularly good Fibonacci relationships does seem to be a more likely Wave (iii) low and with Wave (ii) being brief and shallow this would imply a larger and longer Wave (iv). A 50% retracement is at 1.2078 and 58.6% at 1.2123.

As opposed to the cleaner ABC pattern this appears to have developed directly and I still feel a test of 1.2078 should be seen.

This would complete Wave (iv) and then provide a decline in Wave (a) of Wave (v) back to the area of the 1.1814 low and eventually towards the 1.1664 daily extension in Wave –c- at 1.1664.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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