Pro Commentary Lite .. 14th March 2007 ... EURJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 153.19

Bias:Cautiously, while 152.81-87 supports we look for a reversal higher
Daily Bullish:Losses developed well into the 152.81-153.16 area and we suspect this should provide a springboard for a recovery. This support still needs to hold and to generate a stronger move higher we require a move back above 153.53 which should then allow gains to move higher through 153.75-95 and towards the 154.29 and later 154.62-00 area where we feel a cap can develop. MT Bullish:While the 155.25 level was broken, in terms of a pivot level the degree was acceptable. Thus to see any further gains we need to see a break above there and if seen would cause gains to 156.23 & 157.14-28. (March 12th)Daily Bearish:Having seen the 152.81-153.16 area tested and hold we feel that with a bullish divergence having developed we are more likely to see a recovery higher. Thus a bearish stance will require a clean move below 152.80-87 and followed by 152.49-58. If seen then look for the downside to extend towards 152.22-29 and potentially down to 151.91. Next support is at 151.60.MT Bearish:We feel that at the very least we should now see a pullback of the rally from 150.74 to 155.44 and this should allow losses to reach 153.30-40 at least and we suspect the 152.87 & 152.37 areas. (March 12th)


13th March

The reversal from 155.71 means we place this as Wave c and we now expect further losses. This would normally move back towards a 50% retracement at 153.22 at least. We need to see the wave structure develop a little more but we favor the decline reaching this area (with 152.81-153.16 a probable target area.)

14th March
The 152.81-153.16 area has been tested and we now need to observe the next move to confirm the wave pattern. Below 152.81 would suggest a move back to the 76.4% retracement at 151.91. However, we prefer a move higher towards a 61.8%-76.4% retracement at 154.62-155.04.
Ian Copsey

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